| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"John Forged Kerry" |
| Date: |
09 Oct 2004 07:24:52 AM |
| Object: |
Re: Just a look at how some of the polls are doing |
ST. LOUIS, Missouri (CNN) -- President Bush headed into his second debate
with John Kerry Friday night holding a sizable lead in the all-important
race for electoral votes, but Kerry has made big gains this week in seven
battleground states, a new CNN survey suggests.
If the election were held today, Bush likely would win 301 electoral votes
to Kerry's 237, according to a new CNN survey based on state polling as well
as interviews with campaign aides and independent analysts. A candidate wins
the election with at least 270 electoral votes, regardless of the popular
vote.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/08/electoral.map/index.html
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| User: "Oklahoma Joe" |
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| Title: Re: Just a look at how some of the polls are doing |
09 Oct 2004 07:44:47 AM |
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John Forged Kerry wrote:
ST. LOUIS, Missouri (CNN) -- President Bush headed into his second
The challenger restores his lead heading into the last month Zogby
Interactive Presidential Battleground Poll
Fresh off one of the highest points of his campaign – a superior
performance in the first head-to-head debate against President Bush –
Democratic challenger John Kerry not only stopped the slow leak of
support for his campaign, but added back some air to the inner tube
keeping afloat his run for the White House.
As a result, he remains on top in a still-tight race that shows every
indication it may be every bit as close as 2000, with support for Mr.
Bush and Mr. Kerry teetering within a very slim margin.
Mr. Kerry now leads in the race for Electoral College votes and can now
see a path to victory, but it’s still far from his grasp. Needing 270
votes to become the next President, he has coddled together a lead in
states that total 278, compared to just 207 for Mr. Bush, the latest
collection of polls by Zogby Interactive shows.
ZOGBY'S RACE SO FAR:
Please note: The 53 Electoral College votes of Florida, Ohio, and
Arkansas are not included in the above chart because the races are too
close to call.
The latest group of surveys, conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 5 after the
first presidential debate in Coral Gables, Florida, reflects the first
substantive drop in Mr. Bush’s fortunes since Mr. Kerry named North
Carolina Sen. John Edwards to the Democratic ticket in July.
But unlike the Edwards appointment, this drop was more of Mr. Bush’s own
making, as he stumbled and stuttered his way through the first
face-to-face, looking and sounding defensive about the one bifurcated
issue that has given his campaign muscle all year long – the war in Iraq
and the war on terror.
Mr. Kerry lost the lead in none of the nine states he controlled in the
interactive surveys of Sept. 21, and grabbed tiny leads in two states
that had been counted in the Bush column in the last round – Colorado,
with nine Electoral votes, and Nevada, which boasts five.
Two states remained undecided because they are so close – Florida, with
27 votes, and Arkansas, with six – and are not counted in the Electoral
College tally in this report.
The biggest news is the third state that is now also too close to call:
all-important Ohio, a Midwestern bellwether that carries 20 votes for
the winner. Mr. Bush had lead here, at times handsomely, but that lead
is now so much wind through his fingers.
The importance of Ohio cannot be understated: never has a Republican won
the White House without carrying Ohio. Never. Though the latest
collection of polls shows Mr. Kerry doesn’t need Ohio or Florida to win
the race, should he capture either one, the game is over. Mr. Bush won
both four years ago and, even then, just eked out the win after five
inglorious weeks of political wrangling almost unprecedented in our history.
The shift in the polls, however small, underscores the importance of the
remaining debates between Mr. Kerry and Mr. Bush. If Mr. Bush again
shows poorly, he may kick just enough undecideds into the Kerry campaign
by convincing them that he is just not up to the task of another
four-year term. If he shows strong, this race could revert back to its
complexion of a couple weeks ago, when Mr. Bush had a slow but steady
drive building in the grass roots.
There is hope for the incumbent. Mr. Bush remains close in several
states that were won by Democrat Al Gore four years ago, and he leads in
the toss-up states of Missouri and North Carolina, the home of
Democratic vice presidential hopeful John Edwards.
This is the shape of the current political landscape: Mr. Kerry, always
known as a strong campaign closer, holds a lead heading into the last
crucial weeks. It may take an extraordinary set of circumstances, like a
knock-out punch in one of the two remaining debates, for the President,
known as a disciplined campaign plodder, to climb back into this one in
time.
Mr. Bush is known more for his kidney punches than his rainmakers to the
jaw. Yet, Mr. Kerry has also proven this year that he is one of the
worst at preserving a lead. Forget winning. This race could boil down to
a question of which candidate manages not to lose as badly as his opponent.
Another point. Because there was a once-per-decade political
reapportionment to reflect population shifts after the 2000 election,
Mr. Bush theoretically gained strength because more Electoral College
votes shifted from Gore Blue states to Bush red states. If the race were
run this year exactly as it turned out four years ago, Mr. Bush would
win by a 278-260 margin. According to this latest series of polls, he
has lost 71 Electoral College votes, compared to where he started this
race. That’s more than the total of California and Michigan combined.
But again, 53 votes (Florida, Ohio, and Arkansas – all won by Mr. Bush
four years ago) remain too close to call, and others are extremely
close, easily within the margin of error. This is by no means a Kerry
blowout.
Pollster John Zogby: Kerry’s performance in the first presidential
debate was stellar-one of his finest yet. He was poised, articulate, and
aggressively critical of Bush’s decision to go to War in Iraq. Our
October 4th telephone poll, taken four days after the debate, showed
Kerry closing the gap on Bush’s lead (46%-45%)—this performance may have
given Kerry the bounce that he needed. The President’s poor posture and
lack of depth in his responses also added buoyancy.
--
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| User: "John Forged Kerry" |
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| Title: Re: Just a look at how some of the polls are doing |
09 Oct 2004 07:47:51 AM |
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ST. LOUIS, Missouri (CNN) -- President Bush headed into his second debate
with John Kerry Friday night holding a sizable lead in the all-important
race for electoral votes, but Kerry has made big gains this week in seven
battleground states, a new CNN survey suggests.
If the election were held today, Bush likely would win 301 electoral votes
to Kerry's 237, according to a new CNN survey based on state polling as well
as interviews with campaign aides and independent analysts. A candidate wins
the election with at least 270 electoral votes, regardless of the popular
vote.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/08/electoral.map/index.html
LOL at the befuddled Kerry and his mindless Followers!
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