Report suggests changes in exit poll methodology
Wednesday, January 19, 2005 Posted: 10:09 AM EST (1509 GMT)
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Exit polls overstated John Kerry's share of the
vote on November 2, both nationally and in many states, because more
Kerry supporters participated in the survey than Bush voters,
according to an internal review of the exit-polling process released
Wednesday.
The report said it is difficult to pinpoint precisely why, in general,
Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit poll than
were Bush voters. "There were certainly motivational factors that are
impossible to quantify," the report said.
Problems with the numbers first surfaced on Election Day, when exit
polls showed Kerry with a 3-point lead nationally and an edge in some
key battleground states. Those exit poll results were leaked and
became widely known through the Internet.
CNN did not air those inaccurate results or post them on its Web site,
and CNN's projections of winners on election night were accurate.
Nationwide, Bush got about 3.5 million more votes than Kerry.
The discrepancies stemmed from problems in interviewing voters at the
1,480 randomly chosen precincts where exit pollsters were stationed,
not from how those precincts were selected or the way the data were
processed, according to the 75-page report.
The report recommends a number of steps to deal with the problem,
including better training for interviewers, as well as continued
research aimed at boosting participation in the polls.
The report was issued by Mitofsky International and Edison Media
Research, the polling firms that conducted the polls on behalf of the
so-called National Election Pool, a consortium of six national media
organizations (AP, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox and NBC).
To prevent leaks in future elections, the news organizations have
agreed not to access the data until 6 p.m. ET.
The report found that the exit polls offered no evidence of widespread
fraud.
"Exit polls do not support the allegations of fraud due to rigging of
voting equipment. Our analysis of the difference between the vote
count and the exit poll at each polling location in our sample has
found no systematic differences for precincts using touch screen and
optical scan voting equipment," the report found.
The new report shows that exit polls overstated Kerry's support in 26
states, while estimates overstated Bush's support in four states. The
problem is not new -- in every presidential election since 1988, exit
polls have overstated support for Democrats nationally -- but the
discrepancy in 2004 was more pronounced than in previous years.
The report identified several factors that may have contributed to the
discrepancy, including:
Distance restrictions from polling places imposed upon the
interviewers by election officials at the state and local level.
Weather conditions, which lowered completion rates at certain polling
locations.
Multiple precincts voting at the same location as the precinct in the
exit poll sample.
Interviewer characteristics, such as age, which were more often
related to the errors last year than in past elections.
The pollsters said they plan to further investigate the recruiting and
training procedures, the interviewing rate calculations, the length
and design of the questionnaire, as well as characteristics of both
the interviewers and the precincts chosen to be surveyed.
"Even with these improvements, differences in response rates between
Democratic and Republican voters may still occur in future elections,"
the report reads. "However, we believe that these steps will help to
minimize the discrepancies."
In addition to the information included in this report, exit poll data
from this election are being archived at the Roper Center at the
University of Connecticut and at the Institute for Social Research at
the University of Michigan and will be available there for review and
further analysis. A description of the methodology of the exit polls
is posted at www.exit-poll.net.
From 1992 to 2002, exit polls were conducted by Voter News Service
(VNS), whose exit polls in 2000 led to the networks' decisions to
declare Al Gore the winner in Florida. In 2002, VNS was unable to
deliver any exit poll data to the networks, resulting in the decision
to disband it.
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"Why would I listen to losers?" -- Arnold Schwarzenegger
"Long term commitment in relationships is only necessary because it takes
so damn long to raise children. Marriage may well be some kind of trick
to keep the males around beyond sexual satiation." -- Captain Compassion
"Progress is the increasing control of the environment by life.
--Will Durant
Joseph R. Darancette
res0mp8t@NOSPAMverizon.net
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