Party loyalty was stronger among Democrats than Republicans in every
state but Ohio.

From USA TODAY, 8/31/06:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-31-midterm-elections-inside_x.htm

Republicans tense as voter disillusionment sets in

By Jill Lawrence and Susan Page, USA TODAY

EMMAUS, Pa. --

The buzzing of 150 friends and neighbors quieted as Kathleen Miller
told them about her older son, a Marine who was injured in Iraq, and
her younger son, who is in the Army and has orders to go there in
October.

"I am afraid," Miller said.

"That's why we need Bob Casey, so he can join a Democratic Congress
and help find a solution to this war."

Miller, a Democratic activist, delivered her stark message in a
wood-and-brick barn decked with balloons, sparkly white lights and
Casey himself.

The state treasurer, son of the late governor Bob Casey, had a
double-digit lead over two-term Republican Sen. Rick Santorum in a USA
TODAY/Gallup Poll last week.

Iraq is one of several tides running against GOP candidates, driving
away independent voters and some party faithful.

Except for Missouri, independent voters in five Senate races polled by
USA TODAY were swinging toward the Democrat.

Party loyalty was stronger among Democrats than Republicans in every
state but Ohio.

President Bush's anemic job approval, underscored this week by the
anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, is a drag on Republicans almost
everywhere.

His rating hasn't risen above 42% in six months.

Other problems facing Republicans:

.Corruption and ethics.

The climate is particularly troubled for Ohio Republicans. Gov. Bob
Taft last year pleaded no contest to charges that he violated state
ethics laws.

Rep. Bob Ney, under investigation for his ties to convicted lobbyist
Jack Abramoff, said he would not seek re-election.

Even Sen. Mike DeWine, not entangled in either scandal, says the issue
hurts him.

In Montana, Sen. Conrad Burns was the top recipient of campaign
donations from Abramoff, his clients and political allies.

"Ethics is the issue" in the race, says political scientist James
Lopach of the University of Montana.

He says Burns is helped by his "folksy, agricultural, working-person"
persona, but says Democrat Jon Tester, a farmer, is a strong
challenger:

"He also symbolizes what a lot of Montanans think of themselves --
close to the land, hard-working, straightforward."

.Social issues.

Some conservatives press views that are unpopular with a majority of
Americans.

Santorum, the No. 3 Senate Republican, is a national spokesman on
cultural issues and helped lead last year's drive for congressional
intervention in the Terri Schiavo case.

He called court decisions allowing removal of the Florida woman's
feeding tube "unconscionable."

In Missouri, voters will decide this fall whether to amend their
constitution to protect embryonic stem cell research and ban human
cloning.

The initiative has thrust stem cell research, which has broad support
in polls, into the forefront of the Senate race.

Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill has championed the cause.

GOP Sen. Jim Talent opposes the initiative but says voters should
reach their own decisions about a "very difficult moral issue."

Stem cell research divides business-oriented Republicans from the
party's social conservatives, says political scientist Michael Minta
of Washington University in St. Louis:

"It's a dilemma" for the GOP.

.Economic issues.

Stagnant wages, high gas prices and rising health care costs are top
concerns in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

"For working people ... all things are going pretty bad right now,"
says Jim Sherwood, 42, a painter and union official from Cleveland.

Sherwood and three other members of the Painters' Union were at
Trinity Episcopal Cathedral in Cleveland to hear Senate candidate
Sherrod Brown and others stump for a ballot initiative to increase the
state minimum wage from $4.25 to $6.85 an hour.

"For 10 years, no minimum wage increase" at the federal level while
members of Congress saw their pay rise six times, Brown, a seven-term
House member, told the crowd.

"That's not the kind of family values most of us believe in."

He said later that Ohio voters feel their government "has betrayed
them."

The next day, DeWine was just four blocks away to tout the jobs he's
brought to Ohio.

The two-term senator put on a hard hat and a safety vest to inspect
work on the widening of Euclid Avenue.

As a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, DeWine says he
landed $47 million for the project.

Later, sipping peppermint tea in a nearby coffee shop, DeWine
acknowledged that the political climate was tough for Republicans.

"We all swim in the same ocean," he said, and there are "choppy
waters" this year.

Voters raised economic worries repeatedly at a Casey rally last week
in Jim Thorpe, Pa.

"The gap is ever-widening" between the rich and everyone else, said
Ronald Rabenold, a fifth-grade teacher and union official from
Lehighton.

Santorum says Casey's economic plan is higher taxes and bigger
government.

"He is sort of a European socialist," he said.

Casey, who opposes Bush's tax cuts, laughed and called the tag
"preposterous."

In the end, some experts say, national security could be the decisive
issue -- but unlike in most elections, it's unclear which party will
benefit.

"The Republicans are relying on this image of them being strong on
defense and the war on terror, and their ability to portray Democrats
as weak," says Bob Benenson, editor of the non-partisan
CQPolitics.com.

He adds: "This could be a totally different year."

The reason is Iraq.

In recent USA TODAY/Gallup polls, majorities said it was a mistake to
send U.S. troops and that they should come home either immediately or
within a year.

Republican Peter Vaughan, an energy consultant in Pittsburgh, calls
the U.S. presence in Iraq "a vexing question" and worries it will hurt
Santorum.

"My biggest fear is that we're not going to marshal enough support to
win," he says.

Standing in Miller's barn, Casey says Santorum hasn't asked Bush the
hard questions senators need to ask in a time of war.

Santorum said in an interview that the tactics used to fight the war
have not been "even close to perfect."

But he added, "I'm perfectly happy to run this race on national
security issues."

Brian Souerwine of Macungie embodies the tough electoral realities
facing Santorum and his party.

The retired teacher switched his registration from Republican to
Democrat six months ago and plans to vote for Casey.

He doesn't like what's going on with Iraq, the economy or federal
education policy.

"There are a whole lot of disillusioned people in our country,"
Souerwine says.

_______________________________________________________

All in all, not a good time to be a Republican candidate.

Harry