| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"Tuttles Almanac" |
| Date: |
20 Jul 2005 06:42:22 PM |
| Object: |
Scientists Agree on Global Warming, Senators Told |
Scientists Agree on Global Warming, Senators Told
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGB6PKT4EBE.html
WASHINGTON (AP) - Global warming is caused primarily by humans and
"nearly all climate scientists today" agree with that viewpoint,
the new head of the National Academy of Sciences - a climate
scientist himself - said Wednesday.
Ralph Cicerone's views contrasted with Bush administration officials'
emphasis on uncertainty about how much carbon dioxide and other
industrial gases warm the atmosphere like a greenhouse.
"Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now at its highest level
in 400,000 years and it continues to rise," said Cicerone, an
atmospheric scientist who left as chancellor of University of
California-Irvine to become academy president this month.
"Nearly all climate scientists today believe that much of Earth's
current warming has been caused by increases in the amount of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mostly from the burning of fuels."
Cicerone, testifying before a Senate Commerce subcommittee on
global climate change, cited data from weather stations and ships
indicating the surface of the Earth is generally hotter by about
seven-tenths of 1 degree Fahrenheit just since the early 1970s.
The administration officials stressed the $5 billion spent yearly
on U.S. climate programs, mostly research. David Conover, a principal
deputy assistant energy secretary, said President Bush would lead on
the issue though "the scientific and technology challenges are considerable."
James Mahoney, assistant commerce secretary for oceans and atmosphere,
said, "We know that the surface of the Earth is warmer, and that an
increase in greenhouse gases caused by humans is contributing to the
problem." But he did not go further than that.
"We see economic growth, addressing the climate change problem and
energy security as integrally related," said Daniel Reifsnyder,
director of the State Department's Office of Global Change.
Just three senators - David Vitter, R-La., Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J.,
and Ted Stevens, R-Alaska - were at the hearing. All three shared
concerns about coastlines disappearing.
Cicerone also bolstered a 2004 Pentagon report that two private
consultants prepared on potential global impacts of an abrupt and
severe change in the world's climate. When the report was issued,
it was met with some skepticism and disbelief - even by the Pentagon
official who commissioned the study.
Among the dire consequences sketched out were surging seas breaking
down levees in the Netherlands in 2007, making the Hague "unlivable,"
and Europe's climate becoming "more like Siberia's" by 2020. They
saw possible "mega-droughts" in southern China and northern Europe.
"It was well done," Cicerone said of the report. "I didn't think it
was fictional."
Last month, the National Academy of Sciences - an independent
organization chartered by Congress to advise the government on
scientific matters - joined with similar groups from 10 other
nations in calling for prompt action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Those nations were Brazil, Britain, Canada, China, France, Germany,
India, Italy, Japan and Russia.
Bush said earlier this month he recognizes that human activity
contributes to a warmer Earth. But he continues to reject the
Kyoto treaty on global warming that all other G-8 industrialized
nations signed, because developing nations weren't included in it.
His administration has argued strongly against mandatory
climate-related emissions caps, contending that its voluntary
program is countering the growth of those emissions, but not
actually reducing the tons annually being released into the atmosphere.
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| User: "Joshua Heard" |
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| Title: Re: Scientists Agree on Global Warming, Senators Told |
20 Jul 2005 10:01:36 PM |
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Humans contribute about 3% of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. How is this
"causing" global warming?
Also, we are well within parameters of other post-ice age climate. What
proof is there that this is not a natural climate change? After all, we are
coming out of an ice age 12,000 years ago.
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| User: "ouroboros rex" |
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| Title: Re: Scientists Agree on Global Warming, Senators Told |
21 Jul 2005 09:39:50 AM |
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"Joshua Heard" <jheard@nospammsn.com> wrote in message
news:keEDe.2983$gL1.311@tornado.texas.rr.com...
Humans contribute about 3% of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. How is
this "causing" global warming?
Same explanation as always. Why?
Also, we are well within parameters of other post-ice age climate.
Cite?
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| User: "Joshua Heard" |
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| Title: Re: Scientists Agree on Global Warming, Senators Told |
21 Jul 2005 03:18:01 PM |
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"ouroboros rex" <c-bee1@itg.uiuc.edu> wrote in message
news:dboc3n$i7m$1@news.ks.uiuc.edu...
"Joshua Heard" <jheard@nospammsn.com> wrote in message
news:keEDe.2983$gL1.311@tornado.texas.rr.com...
Humans contribute about 3% of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. How is
this "causing" global warming?
Same explanation as always. Why?
Also, we are well within parameters of other post-ice age climate.
Cite?
I ask questions, and you fail to answer, only pose more questions. Maybe
you don't have the answers.
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| User: "Tom Quarlous" |
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| Title: Re: Scientists Agree on Global Warming, Senators Told |
22 Jul 2005 11:44:42 AM |
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On Thu, 21 Jul 2005 20:18:01 GMT, "Joshua Heard"
<jheard@nospammsn.com> wrote:
"ouroboros rex" <c-bee1@itg.uiuc.edu> wrote in message
news:dboc3n$i7m$1@news.ks.uiuc.edu...
"Joshua Heard" <jheard@nospammsn.com> wrote in message
news:keEDe.2983$gL1.311@tornado.texas.rr.com...
Humans contribute about 3% of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. How is
this "causing" global warming?
Same explanation as always. Why?
Also, we are well within parameters of other post-ice age climate.
Cite?
I ask questions, and you fail to answer, only pose more questions. Maybe
you don't have the answers.
You're not worth answering, in fact, you're an idiot. Read the IPCC's
Third Assessment Report instead of the RNC's talking points.
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| User: "Joshua Heard" |
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| Title: Re: Scientists Agree on Global Warming, Senators Told |
22 Jul 2005 03:16:02 PM |
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You're not worth answering, in fact, you're an idiot.
Oh. Brilliant retort.
I read the IPCC's Third Assessment Report. It basically says that CO2
concentration is rising in the atmosphere and the earth is warming. As any
scientist knows, such a correlation does not demonstrate causation; the
warming could be causing rising CO2 rates. The first 2 assessment reports
were based mainly on prediction models which are inherently unscientific.
Face it, we cannot predict tomorrow's weather, much less the climate in a
century. The scientists' "consensus", or the summation of their *beliefs*,
is no substitute for scientific proof, of which there is none. At one time,
the "consensus" was that the earth was flat.
Take a look at this information on ice ages
(http://vathena.arc.nasa.gov/curric/land/global/climchng.html). Among other
things, it show a 5 degree varation every 100,000 years caused by variations
in the earth's orbit. It shows we are coming out of an ice age right now,
so one would expect the globe to be warming. In addition, it demonstrates a
correlation of CO2 and global warming after the last ice age thousands of
years ago.
Clinton rejected the Kyoto treaty by refusing to submit it to the Senate for
ratification, knowing it would fail. Bush has done more than Clinton ever
did by allocating 1 Billion dollars to develop hydrogen fuel cells, a
"green" technology.
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| User: "z" |
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| Title: Re: Scientists Agree on Global Warming, Senators Told |
21 Jul 2005 01:10:31 PM |
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Joshua Heard wrote:
Humans contribute about 3% of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. How is this
"causing" global warming?
Just like, how can lighting one measly little match contribute to your
house burning down?
Also, we are well within parameters of other post-ice age climate. What
proof is there that this is not a natural climate change? After all, we are
coming out of an ice age 12,000 years ago.
The proof is that we are not "within the parameters of other post-ice
age climate". The current temp is outside the 95% confidence interval
of tempteratures for the past 1000 years, shown in the shaded area here
<http://pws.prserv.net/gzuckier/climate2.jpg>. therefore, by the
standards of normal mathematical analysis which we use to decide
whether the medicines you take are going to make you die, the current
temperature is not a product of the same random variation in the
ongoing process which produced the previous range of temperatures.
Now it's time for you to answer questions.
Given that
1) the effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide is to reduce heat loss
2) it is without doubt that the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels in
the past couple of decades are unprecedentedly high since plants got
established on the earth
3) the temperature is significantly higher than at any time in the
temperature record
4) the temperature can be modeled quite well using current best
estimates of all the various parameters that affect it, and the
increased temperature seems indeed to be the effect of the increased
carbon dioxide
what makes you discard this textbook case of scientific reasoning? do
you not believe that carbon dioxide is rising? do you believe that
something is happening that is suppressing the effect of carbon dioxide
on temperature? What would that be? do you have another model for
temperature that you would like to share?
Or is this some kind of "intelligent climate" theory: given the
complexity of climate, science cannot prove that the changing climate
is not caused by a divine intelligence?
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