From The Associated Press, 1/24/05:
http://www.nynewsday.com/news/nationworld/nation/ats-ap_us12jan24,0,5745698.story?coll=ny-leadnationalnews-headlines
U.S. Military May Face Reservist Shortage
By ROBERT BURNS
AP Military Writer
WASHINGTON --
The strain of fighting a longer, bloodier war in Iraq than U.S.
commanders originally foresaw brings forth a question that most would
have dismissed only a year ago:
Is the military in danger of running out of reserve troops?
At first glance the answer would appear to be a clear no.
There are nearly 1.2 million men and women on the reserve rolls, and
only about 70,000 are now in Iraq to supplement the regulars.
But a deeper look inside the Army National Guard, Army Reserve and
Marine Corps Reserve suggests a grimmer picture:
At the current pace and size of American troop deployments to Iraq,
the availability of suitable reserve combat troops could become a
problem as early as next year.
The National Guard says it has about 86,000 citizen soldiers available
for future deployments to Iraq, fewer than it has sent there over the
past two years.
And it has used up virtually all of its most readily deployable combat
brigades.
In an indication of the concern about a thinning of its ranks, last
month the National Guard tripled the re-enlistment bonuses offered to
soldiers in Iraq who can fill critical skill shortages.
Similarly, the Army Reserve has about 37,500 deployable soldiers left
-- about 18 percent of its total troop strength.
The Marine Corps Reserve appears to be in a comparable position,
because most of its 40,000 troops have been mobilized at least once
already.
Officials said they have no figures available on how many are
available for future deployments to Iraq.
Both the Army and the Marines are soliciting reservists to volunteer
for duty in Iraq.
"The reserves are pretty well shot" after the Pentagon makes the next
troop rotation, starting this summer, said Robert Goldich, a defense
analyst at the Congressional Research Service.
Among the evidence:
* Of the National Guard's 15 best-trained, best-equipped and most
ready-to-deploy combat brigades, all but one are either in Iraq now,
have demobilized after returning from a one-year tour there or have
been alerted for duty in 2005-2006.
The exception is the South Carolina National Guard's 218th Infantry
Brigade, which has had not been deployed to Iraq as a full brigade
because smaller groups of its soldiers have been mobilized
periodically for homeland defense and numerous missions abroad,
including Iraq.
* The Army Reserve, with about 205,000 citizen soldiers on its rolls
for support rather than combat duty, has been so heavily used since
the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks that, for practical purposes, it has only
about 37,500 troops available to perform the kinds of missions
required in Iraq, according to an internal briefing chart entitled,
"What's Left in the Army Reserve?"
* The chief of the Army Reserve, Lt. Gen. James R. Helmly, recently
advised other Army leaders that his citizen militia is in "grave
danger" of being unable to meet all its operational responsibilities.
He said the Reserve is "rapidly degenerating into a `broken' force."
The mix of troops in the U.S. force rotation now under way in Iraq is
about 50 percent active duty and 50 percent reserves.
But that is set to change to 70 percent active and 30 percent reserve
for the rotation after that, beginning this summer, because
combat-ready Guard units have been tapped out.
Thus, two active-duty Army divisions that have already served one-year
tours in Iraq -- the 101st Airborne and the 4th Infantry -- have been
selected to return in the coming rotation.
The 1st Marine Expeditionary Force already is on its second tour in
Iraq.
The potential squeeze could be avoided if security conditions in Iraq
improve so dramatically this year that the Pentagon decides it can
achieve stability with a smaller force.
The original expectation, after the fall of Baghdad in April 2003, was
that a troop withdrawal could begin within weeks.
But an unanticipated insurgency -- which turned out to be lethal and
resilient -- changed the picture and led to the stressful situation
the Army faces today.
In some respects, the use of Army and Marine reservists in Iraq has
been a success story.
Goldich, the defense analyst, said their performance has generally
been excellent.
Commanders sing their praise.
Yet there is a limit to the reserves' resources, and the limit may be
nearing.
It's not the absolute number of reservists that poses a problem.
It's the number who have the right skills for what is required in Iraq
and who have not already served lengthy tours on active duty since
President Bush authorized the Pentagon three days after the Sept. 11
attacks to mobilize as many as 1 million reservists for up to 24
months.
A portion of the best-trained reservists are approaching the 24-month
limit, and some senior officials inside the Army are considering
whether the limit should be redefined so that mobilizations over the
past three years would, in effect, not count against the 24-month
limit.
The Guard and Reserve are hurting in other ways, too.
Their casualties in Iraq have been mounting (16 deaths in October, 28
in November, 20 in December and at least 15 in the first 13 days of
January), and the National Guard and Army Reserve have been missing
their recruiting goals.
____________________________________________________________
Bush's destruction of our nation's military seems almost calculated,
doesn't it.
Harry
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