or~ If it's kill or be killed...... then, what the ***** shoot
first.........right?
~...
it's "Doctor Strangelove"
.....Deja Vu~
jn
~
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U.S. seen stepping up war plans for Iran
White House mulls military solutions for nuclear standoff, sources say
Irna / Reuters file
An Iranian ship and helicopters take part in naval maneuvers in the
Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman on April. Iran said the war games are a
show of defensive strength.
By By Peter Baker, Dafna Linzer and Thomas E. Ricks
The Bush administration is studying options for military strikes against
Iran as part of a broader strategy of coercive diplomacy to pressure
Tehran to abandon its alleged nuclear development program, according to
U.S. officials and independent analysts.
No attack appears likely in the short term, and many specialists inside
and outside the U.S. government harbor serious doubts about whether an
armed response would be effective. But administration officials are
preparing for it as a possible option and using the threat "to convince
them this is more and more serious," as a senior official put it.
According to current and former officials, Pentagon and CIA planners
have been exploring possible targets, such as the uranium enrichment
plant at Natanz and the uranium conversion facility at Isfahan. Although
a land invasion is not contemplated, military officers are weighing
alternatives ranging from a limited airstrike aimed at key nuclear
sites, to a more extensive bombing campaign designed to destroy an array
of military and political targets.
Iran now tops international agenda
Preparations for confrontation with Iran underscore how the issue has
vaulted to the front of President Bush's agenda even as he struggles
with a relentless war in next-door Iraq. Bush views Tehran as a serious
menace that must be dealt with before his presidency ends, aides said,
and the White House, in its new National Security Strategy, last month
labeled Iran the most serious challenge to the United States posed by
any country.
Many military officers and specialists, however, view the saber rattling
with alarm. A strike at Iran, they warn, would at best just delay its
nuclear program by a few years but could inflame international opinion
against the United States, particularly in the Muslim world and
especially within Iran, while making U.S. troops in Iraq targets for
retaliation.
"My sense is that any talk of a strike is the diplomatic gambit to keep
pressure on others that if they don't help solve the problem, we will
have to," said Kori Schake, who worked on Bush's National Security
Council staff and teaches at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point,
N.Y.
More than words?
Others believe it is more than bluster. "The Bush team is looking at the
viability of airstrikes simply because many think airstrikes are the
only real option ahead," said Kurt Campbell, a former Pentagon policy
official.
The intensified discussion of military scenarios comes as the United
States is working with European allies on a diplomatic solution. After
tough negotiations, the U.N. Security Council issued a statement last
month urging Iran to re-suspend its uranium enrichment program. But
Russia and China, both veto-wielding council members, forced out any
mention of consequences and are strongly resisting any sanctions.
=95Full international coverage
U.S. officials continue to pursue the diplomatic course but privately
seem increasingly skeptical that it will succeed. The administration is
also coming under pressure from Israel, which has warned the Bush team
that Iran is closer to developing a nuclear bomb than Washington thinks
and that a moment of decision is fast approaching.
Bush and his team have calibrated their rhetoric to give the impression
that the United States may yet resort to force. In January, the
president termed a nuclear-armed Iran "a grave threat to the security of
the world," words that echoed language he used before the 2003 invasion
of Iraq. Vice President Cheney vowed "meaningful consequences" if Iran
does not give up any nuclear aspirations, and U.N. Ambassador John R.
Bolton refined the formula to "tangible and painful consequences."
Although Bush insists he is focused on diplomacy for now, he volunteered
at a public forum in Cleveland last month his readiness to use force if
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad tries to follow through on his
statement that Israel should be "wiped off the map."
"The threat from Iran is, of course, their stated objective to destroy
our strong ally, Israel," Bush said. "That's a threat, a serious threat.
. . I'll make it clear again that we will use military might to
protect our ally Israel."
=A0Click for related story
U.N. nuke chief expects 'positive results' from Iran visit
Regime change seen as ultimate goal
Bush has also been privately consulting with key senators about options
on Iran as part of a broader goal of regime change, according to an
account by Seymour M. Hersh in the New Yorker magazine.
The U.S. government has taken some preliminary steps that go beyond
planning. The Washington Post has reported that the military has been
secretly flying surveillance drones over Iran since 2004 using radar,
video, still photography and air filters to detect traces of nuclear
activity not accessible to satellites. Hersh reported that U.S. combat
troops have been ordered to enter Iran covertly to collect targeting
data, but sources have not confirmed that to The Post.
The British government has launched its own planning for a potential
U.S. strike, studying security arrangements for its embassy and consular
offices, for British citizens and corporate interests in Iran and for
ships in the region and British troops in Iraq. British officials
indicate their government is unlikely to participate directly in any
attacks.
Israel doing its own planning
Israel is preparing, as well. The government recently leaked a
contingency plan for attacking on its own if the United States does not,
a plan involving airstrikes, commando teams, possibly missiles and even
explosive-carrying dogs. Israel, which bombed Iraq's Osirak nuclear
plant in 1981 to prevent it from being used to develop weapons, has
built a replica of Natanz, according to Israeli media, but U.S.
strategists do not believe Israel has the capacity to accomplish the
mission without nuclear weapons.
Iran appears to be taking the threat seriously. The government, which
maintains its nuclear activity is only for peaceful, civilian uses, has
launched a program to reinforce key sites, such as Natanz and Isfahan,
by building concrete ceilings, tunneling into mountains and camouflaging
facilities. Iran lately has tested several missiles in a show of
strength.
Israel points to those missiles to press their case in Washington.
Israeli officials traveled here recently to convey more urgency about
Iran. Although U.S. intelligence agencies estimate Iran is about a
decade away from having a nuclear bomb, Israelis believe a critical
breakthrough could occur within months. They told U.S. officials that
Iran is beginning to test a more elaborate cascade of centrifuges,
indicating that it is further along than previously believed.
"What the Israelis are saying is this year -- unless they are pressured
into abandoning the program -- would be the year they will master the
engineering problem," a U.S. official said. "That would be a turning
point, but it wouldn't mean they would have a bomb."
CONTINUED: Two-pronged approach
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