plonk wrote:

On 3 Nov 2005 18:42:53 -0800, "Michael Price" <nini_pad@yahoo.com>
wrote:

So how long before the US government starts sending arms and money
to the (comparitively) sane Al-Sadr to counterbalance the Iranian
stooges of the SCIRI? Shoot'em today, recruit'em tommorow.

;-) I had to wonder how the U.S. managed to bungle a critical
relationship with someone who could have been a subtle ally of
a sort.

I heard an interview with Juan Cole the other day and he was
asked: "Are these guys just stupid or what?" Cole replied
something to the effect that the U.S. powers that be are in
a learning process as pertains to local tribal relationships etc.
IOW they are learning on the job.

Well they've been spying on the Iraqi political scene since the
invasion of Kuwait (I'm assuming they didn't spy on an ally*).
You'd think by 2002 they would have absorbed information like a)
the majority of Shiite clerics are backed by or sympathetic to
Iran and thus likely to be hostile to the US, b) Sadr isn't and
c) since Shiites are 60% of the population they will determine who
wins any elections and who is credible as a leader of a "democratic"
Iraq. Even if the US doesn't want real democracy (and it doesn't)
they'll still need a credible stooge and thus help by Shiite leaders
in making them credible. Sadr is the obvious choice. It should
have taken a 2 hour briefing to point that out, if that.

plonk wrote:

Shiite power struggle simmers in Najaf


In Iraq's Shiite heartland, tensions remain high between Moqtada al
Sadr and Iraq's ruling party SCIRI.
By Jill Carroll : Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1102/p07s01-woiq.htm

NAJAF, IRAQ - On a recent Friday night here families thronged the
brightly lit shops to buy clothing, jewelry, and religious trinkets on
streets absent of foreign troops.

It was a scene of startling normalcy for Iraq where few people venture
out after dark for fear of insurgent attacks, coalition firefights, or
plain criminality. But while nightlife has returned to this southern
city largely free of insurgent bombs, the civil strife between Shiites
is brewing just below the surface.

The political fight for the control of the country's Shiite holiest
city turned Najaf into a battlefield last summer when forces loyal to
rebel cleric Moqtada al-Sadr engaged in fierce firefights with US
forces. And in August, skirmishes involving Mr. Sadr's supporters
turned Najaf's streets violent again, this time clashing with the
militia of the ruling Shiite religious party the Supreme Council of
the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI).

Today, in the shadow of the city's gold dome and tile porticoes of the
Imam Ali shrine that makes Najaf Shiite Islam's capital, a barely
restrained tension between SCIRI and Sadr supporters continues.

At the national level, the two leading Shiite groups have joined a
political coalition, the United Iraqi Alliance, last week to run in
the Dec. 15 elections. But in the streets here, that unity appears
lacking.

"For the Najaf people [Sadr] is an unwanted person. All steps taken by
this man are not for the best, not for the good of all Najaf people,"
says Sayyid Ali, a gold merchant in the city's main market who
wouldn't give his full name.

But down different alley in the large market is another jewelry shop.
This one is decorated with posters of Sadr. "All the police and all
the government are supported by [SCIRI]," says Hussein Rasool
al-Akash, whose brother was one of four Sadr followers killed in the
August clashes with Sadr forces and demonstrators who opposed him and
his followers presence in Najaf.

That violence lasted a few hours but had ripple effects throughout
Shiite Iraq. Hours later, as word of the Najaf fight spread, battles
broke out between Sadr followers and SCIRI forces across southern
Iraq. Then, just as suddenly, all was quiet by the next afternoon
after Sadr called for calm.

But local government leaders are anxious to show there will be no
trouble on their watch, having just taken over control of the city
from US troops.

"We are not worried at all about the Sadr movement. As a matter of
fact, we believe it is the nearest movement we can go hand-in-hand
with," says deputy governor Abdel Hussein Abtan, who oversees security
in Najaf.

Mr. Abtan is also the secretary general of the Badr Organization in
Najaf. The group was better known as the Badr Brigade or Badr Corps,
the feared militia of SCIRI, until it vowed to disarm and focus on
humanitarian work after the US invasion of Iraq. But Sadr supporters
and many Najaf residents say an armed Badr Brigade still exists as the
Najaf police force.

Abtan says the recent fighting was just the growing pains of freedom.
"Democracy is new to the Iraqi people. As more time passes ... we will
learn how to live together and make the best of it," he says.

That message has not made it through to the Sadr officials in Najaf,
however, just a few minutes away in this compact city.

"In Najaf we suffer from an uncooperative government. They are not
working with us with a good sense," says Salah al-Obaeidi, a Sadr
representative in Najaf. "They try to be very restrictive of [Sadr]
visitors, refusing to allow them to say the [Sadr Movement] slogans
... we can't say they have targeted us but we can say they are not
cooperative with us."

Mr. Obaeidi says that across southern Iraq the relationship between
SCIRI and Sadr varies from tense coexistence as in Najaf, to the
all-out armed conflict that has flared frequently in Basra and Samawa.

The Shiite political parties like SCIRI entered Iraq from exile in
Iran after the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime. As a result they have
little constituency among average Shiites and many leaders have spent
decades outside the country they are now ruling.

Instead, the majority of Shiites identify strongly with the marjiyeh,
four grand ayatollahs who each hold the status as the highest
religious Shiite authority. SCIRI was swept into office last January
after Ali al-Sistani, the first among the four equals, was believed to
have given his support to them.

The divide between Sadr and SCIRI is more than just the natural
rivalry produced by Iraq's new political plurality. It is rooted in
historical tensions in the Shiite community, making the divide all the
more entrenched. Sadr comes from a family of prominent Shiite clerics
who have a history of being outspokenly antiestablishment.

But SCIRI represents the Shiite establishment that supports Ayatollah
Sistani, who was a rival of Sadr's beloved father. Sadr himself has
few religious credentials and publicly pays homage to Sistani's
authority. His weeks-long battle with American troops in Najaf in
August 2004 was seen as an affront to Sistani's authority to some, but
also earned him enormous street credibility.

While most people across Najaf have chosen sides between the Sadr
movement and SCIRI, some, like Kadhim Mohammed a shopkeeper here, are
not allied with any political group and are caught in the middle of
the Sadr-SCIRI power struggle.

When asked about Sadr he was reticent. "I can't answer this question.
I can't," says Mr. Mohammed, who wouldn't give his real name. "If you
don't say anything for or against them, if you don't talk about it,
you will be OK."

This article linked from: http://www.antiwar.com/
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http://www.lp.org/

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http://www.antiwar.com/photos/perm/bush-joke.jpg

* Ok, I lied I'm not.