| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"Harry Hope" |
| Date: |
15 Jun 2004 01:26:18 PM |
| Object: |
U.S. jobless rate misses "hidden" unemployed. Not a pretty picture. |
From Reuters, 6/14/04:
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2004/06/14/us_jobless_rate_misses_hidden_unemployed/
U.S. jobless rate misses "hidden" unemployed
By Reuters
NEW YORK --
Buried inside the official U.S. employment report each month is a
little-known figure that gives a much less rosy picture of the labor
market than the headlines.
The government agency that produces the data also publishes an
alternative measure that tries to capture the hidden unemployed, those
who are not included in the official unemployment rate for various
statistical reasons.
That broader measure is dramatically higher, at 9.7 percent in May,
compared with the official level of 5.6 percent.
That's an extra 5.96 million people, in addition to the 8.2 million
"officially" unemployed, who are waiting on the sidelines and may at
some point step back into the labor force.
Although it receives little notice, the adjusted jobless rate has
important implications for Federal Reserve policy-makers because it
suggests the job market will not tighten as quickly as some in the
financial markets believe.
"It shows there is more slack in the labor market than appears on the
surface and as job opportunities improve, we'll see people re-entering
the labor force to search for work," said former Fed Governor Lyle
Gramley.
"That means fears that inflation is about break out all over the place
do not seem warranted," he said in an interview.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to start raising interest rates
later this month, as the economy recovers from the 2001 recession and
job creation picks up.
But the Fed can boost rates at a slower pace if inflation is not a big
threat.
DISCOURAGED WORKERS
The Labor Department's adjusted measure of unemployment adds in people
it describes as "marginally attached" to the labor force.
These are workers who have not actively looked for work in the past
four weeks, including "discouraged workers" who have given up
altogether.
They also include those who have given up looking for full-time jobs
and have settled for part-time work instead.
None of the unemployment measures include the 1.7 percent of the male
wage-earning population who are in prison, or another 1.36 million
men, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
"We have had this unprecedented withdrawal from the labor force over
the past three years," said Lee Price, research director at the
independent Economic Policy Institute.
"The traditional measure of labor market slack, the unemployment rate,
is giving us a misleadingly tight picture."
Indeed, the labor force participation rate is at its lowest level
since 1988 -- lower even than in the last recession.
Financial markets and private-sector economists pay little attention
to the alternative measure of joblessness, and a search of the Federal
Reserve's entire database of research turned up only two articles on
the topic.
The author of one of those papers, economist Yolanda Kodrzycki at the
Boston Fed, said the broader measure is "very helpful," although it
tends to move in tandem with the official rate.
On Wall street, analysts generally hold upbeat views on the economy
and accept the unemployment rate at face value, said HSBC Chief
Economist Ian Morris.
"There is a whole debate to be had on unemployment, but it's not
happening," he said.
The adjusted measure shows "unemployment remains stubbornly high and
higher than it should be at this point in the cycle," said Jose Rasco,
senior economist at Merrill Lynch.
Federal Reserve officials seem to be aware of the limits of the
reported unemployment rate.
Fed Governor Donald Kohn noted in a speech last week that many people
who left the work force because of poor prospects are probably ready
to rejoin the market.
"If that is correct, then the current level of the unemployment rate
.... may, if anything, understate the availability of labor resources,"
Kohn said.
The return of the uncounted into the work force will also slow the
improvement in the official rate, and could actually send it higher,
even as new jobs are being created.
________________________________________________________
Harry
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| User: "" |
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| Title: Re: U.S. jobless rate misses "hidden" unemployed. Not a pretty picture. |
15 Jun 2004 10:35:43 PM |
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i don't know if it means anything but 1 out 3 people of working age
are not working on the payrolls if they are working at all, according
to my calculations of the almanac info. i looked at the labor
department stats on the # of people on payroll, and then i looked at
the census figures for the number of people between the ages of 25 and
65,assuming that people less than 25 years old were going to school.
guy from long island
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| User: "john grove" |
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| Title: Re: U.S. jobless rate misses "hidden" unemployed. Not a pretty picture. |
16 Jun 2004 04:31:34 PM |
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wrote in message news:<7a7e563d.0406151935.2e4ddee5@posting.google.com>...
i don't know if it means anything but 1 out 3 people of working age
are not working on the payrolls if they are working at all, according
to my calculations of the almanac info. i looked at the labor
department stats on the # of people on payroll, and then i looked at
the census figures for the number of people between the ages of 25 and
65,assuming that people less than 25 years old were going to school.
guy from long island
This number would include: prison residents and stay home moms/dads. I
would believe an unemployment rate of closer to 15%, rather than the 5.x%
touted by the bushie crowd.
JG
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| User: "John Doe" |
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| Title: Re: U.S. jobless rate misses "hidden" unemployed. Not a pretty picture. |
20 Jun 2004 05:46:27 AM |
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On 16 Jun 2004 14:31:34 -0700, (john grove)
wrote:
gt76us@yahoo.com wrote in message news:<7a7e563d.0406151935.2e4ddee5@posting.google.com>...
i don't know if it means anything but 1 out 3 people of working age
are not working on the payrolls if they are working at all, according
to my calculations of the almanac info. i looked at the labor
department stats on the # of people on payroll, and then i looked at
the census figures for the number of people between the ages of 25 and
65,assuming that people less than 25 years old were going to school.
guy from long island
This number would include: prison residents and stay home moms/dads. I
would believe an unemployment rate of closer to 15%, rather than the 5.x%
touted by the bushie crowd.
JG
Never mind that the Job statistics spewed out neglects to mention that
the latest jobs created are mostly McJobs and Part-time jobs in the
Service Sector, hardly jobs to afford bying groceries let alone trying
to save money for a post secondary eduction.
Furthermore, the outsourcing includes programmers to India, I would
hate to spend a fortune on getting a degree in Programming just to see
someone in India getting hired instead of local talent.
So to conclude that means less people with less disposable income to
buy goods and services to keep these Greedy Share Holders who are
getting most of the Tax Loopholes hmm sorry meant Tax Breaks from this
Bush admin.
.
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| User: "InsuranceBroker" |
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| Title: Re: U.S. jobless rate misses "hidden" unemployed. Not a pretty picture. |
20 Jun 2004 07:46:07 AM |
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Subject: Re: U.S. jobless rate misses "hidden" unemployed. Not a pretty
picture.
From: John Doe
Date: 6/20/2004 6:46 AM Eastern Daylight Time
Message-id: <6gqad01ojm45avmpdqv00vc7mmhbraai2b@4ax.com>
On 16 Jun 2004 14:31:34 -0700, (john grove)
wrote:
gt76us@yahoo.com wrote in message
news:<7a7e563d.0406151935.2e4ddee5@posting.google.com>...
i don't know if it means anything but 1 out 3 people of working age
are not working on the payrolls if they are working at all, according
to my calculations of the almanac info. i looked at the labor
department stats on the # of people on payroll, and then i looked at
the census figures for the number of people between the ages of 25 and
65,assuming that people less than 25 years old were going to school.
guy from long island
This number would include: prison residents and stay home moms/dads. I
would believe an unemployment rate of closer to 15%, rather than the 5.x%
touted by the bushie crowd.
JG
Never mind that the Job statistics spewed out neglects to mention that
the latest jobs created are mostly McJobs and Part-time jobs in the
Service Sector, hardly jobs to afford bying groceries let alone trying
to save money for a post secondary eduction.
Actually a very large number of the new jobs are not even that. They are
correctins and season adjustments. In short they are part of the republican
reelection program. Unemployement and underemployment is a major problem in
the United States but you would thing things are wonderful when you reads
Bush's bureau of labor reports.
Furthermore, the outsourcing includes programmers to India, I would
hate to spend a fortune on getting a degree in Programming just to see
someone in India getting hired instead of local talent.
So to conclude that means less people with less disposable income to
buy goods and services to keep these Greedy Share Holders who are
getting most of the Tax Loopholes hmm sorry meant Tax Breaks from this
Bush admin.
Doing Insurance business in the Garden State
.
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