Could it be that Bush/Cheney/Rummy now finally realize that they have a
strategy problem in Iraq; that what they are doing isn't and won't work?
---
washingtonpost.com
U.S. Lowers Expectations On Iraq Vote
Process Emphasized, Not Turnout or Results
By Robin Wright and Jim VandeHei
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, January 13, 2005; Page A01
With just over two weeks until the Iraqi elections, the United States is
lowering its expectations for both the turnout and the results of the
vote, increasingly emphasizing other steps over the next year as more
important to Iraq's political transformation, according to U.S. officials.
The Bush administration played down voter turnout yesterday in
determining the elections' legitimacy and urged Americans not to get
bogged in a numbers game in judging the balloting, a reflection of the
growing concern over how much the escalating insurgency and the problem
of Sunni participation may affect the vote.
"I would . . . really encourage people not to focus on numbers, which in
themselves don't have any meaning, but to look on the outcome and to
look at the government that will be the product of these elections," a
senior administration official said, speaking on the condition of
anonymity at a White House briefing yesterday. The official highlighted
the low voter turnout in U.S. elections as evidence that polling numbers
are not essential to legitimacy.
The transition from an interim body, which was appointed last summer by
U.N. and U.S. officials, to an elected government "in itself is an
enormous achievement and . . . we all encourage people to view it in
that way," the official said.
For months, the administration has promoted the elections as a major
milestone in its efforts to bring democracy to Iraq and then the wider
Middle East and Islamic world. But the continuing insurgency and the
inability of U.S. forces to stabilize Iraq almost two years after the
invasion to topple Saddam Hussein has forced the administration to
redefine the context, goals and role of this first vote.
At this late date, the United States also has no viable options or
alternatives other than trying to go forward with the Jan. 30 elections,
analysts say.
"I don't think they're thinking of a Plan B. What they have is
permutations of Plan A: You go for elections, hope for the best and if
it doesn't materialize, you go with whatever emerges -- probably a
heavily Shiite government," said Henri J. Barkey, a former State
Department Iraq specialist who is now head of Leheigh University's
International Relations Department. "Then you hope that this new
government will be smart enough and enlightened enough to make an
outreach to the Sunnis."
Over the past week, administration officials have frequently stressed
that the vote is only part of a year-long process. "The election is not
going to be perfect," White House press secretary Scott McClellan said
yesterday. "This is the first time Iraqis will be able to freely choose
their leaders. It's for a transitional government, and it's only one of
three elections that will take place over the course of this year."
A senior White House official said the administration's revised
reflections on the Iraqi elections are not as much to lower expectations
as to provide "education of the process going forward." President Bush,
he added, fears Americans will expect a result similar to last fall's
vote in Afghanistan, in which a president was chosen and the outcome was
clear. "This is a far different process under way," he said.
The White House refused to make the comments on the record and allow the
speakers to be identified. "It's been the practice over the past four
years at the [National Security Council] that the only officials you see
speak on the record are [national security adviser Condoleezza] Rice,
[her deputy] Steve Hadley and the spokesman," said White House spokesman
Sean McCormick.
The administration continues to say publicly that it expects a
significant Sunni turnout, citing an International Republican Institute
poll in early December showing 20 percent of Sunnis intend to vote and
35 percent intend "somewhat" to vote. But in light of the insurgents'
growing attacks on election and government officials since that survey,
U.S. officials fear last-minute attacks on polling stations, candidates
and voters will produce a much smaller turnout among the minority group
that once dominated Iraq. One unofficial estimate already predicts a
vote as low as 10 percent in some areas.
The administration is working with Iraqis to maximize turnout with final
modifications, such as allowing voters to cast their ballots at any
regional polling station, U.S. officials say.
In talks with Shiite and Kurdish leaders, the administration is also
exploring ways to compensate after the elections for a potentially low
Sunni turnout.
The focus is increasingly on encouraging negotiations next month between
the newly elected Iraqi assembly and Sunni leaders to ensure that the
group is proportionately represented in government ministries and on the
committee that will write a new constitution, U.S. officials said
yesterday. The schedule now calls for talks after Feb. 15 -- when
election results are due -- but before the formation of a new government
by March 1.
"When you're naming the commission to draft the constitution, the ethnic
composition of that isn't governed -- it's not proportional
representation like the assembly is," said Michael Kozak, acting
assistant secretary for the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor.
"Who is in the ministries in the government, again . . . there's no
ethnic limitation on that."
The administration now emphasizes the election for a permanent
government, scheduled for December, as far more important than the vote
at the end of this month for a short-lived national assembly.
"There will be many opportunities along the way for the Sunni community
to express itself, either through voting or through other participation
in the political process," said State Department spokesman Richard A.
Boucher. "And our goal is to try to make sure that all those
opportunities are available to all the citizens of Iraq."
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