War simulation in 1999 pointed out Iraq invasion problems
POSTED: 10:15 p.m. EST, November 4, 2006
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A series of secret U.S.
war games in 1999 showed that an invasion
and post-war administration of Iraq would
require 400,000 troops, nearly three times
the number there now.
And even then, the games showed, the country
still had a chance of dissolving into chaos.
In the simulation, called Desert Crossing, 70
military, diplomatic and intelligence participants
concluded the high troop levels would be
needed to keep order, seal borders and take
care of other security needs.
The documents came to light Saturday through
a Freedom of Information Act request by George
Washington University's National Security Archive,
an independent research institute and library.
"The conventional wisdom is the U.S. mistake
in Iraq was not enough troops," said Thomas
Blanton, the archive's director. "But the Desert
Crossing war game in 1999 suggests we would
have ended up with a failed state even with
400,000 troops on the ground."
There are about 144,000 U.S. troops in Iraq,
down from a peak in January of about 160,000.
A week after the invasion, in March 2003, the
Pentagon said there were 250,000 U.S. ground
force troops inside Iraq, along with 40,000 coalition
force troops.
A spokeswoman for the U.S. Central Command,
which sponsored the seminar and declassified
the secret report in 2004, declined to comment
Saturday because she was not familiar with
the documents.
News of the war games results comes a day
before judges are expected to deliver a verdict
in Saddam Hussein war crimes trial. (Watch
people prepare as curfew sets across Baghdad
in anticipation of the verdicts -- 3:20
The war games looked at "worst case" and "most
likely" scenarios after a war that removed then-Iraqi
President Saddam Hussein from power. Some of
the conclusions are similar to what actually occurred
after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003:
"A change in regimes does not guarantee stability,"
the 1999 seminar briefings said. "A number of factors
including aggressive neighbors, fragmentation along
religious and/or ethnic lines, and chaos created by
rival forces bidding for power could adversely affect
regional stability."
"Even when civil order is restored and borders
are secured, the replacement regime could be
problematic -- especially if perceived as weak,
a puppet, or out-of-step with prevailing regional
governments."
"Iran's anti-Americanism could be enflamed by
a U.S.-led intervention in Iraq," the briefings read.
"The influx of U.S. and other western forces into
Iraq would exacerbate worries in Tehran, as
would the installation of a pro-western government
in Baghdad."
"The debate on post-Saddam Iraq also reveals
the paucity of information about the potential
and capabilities of the external Iraqi opposition
groups. The lack of intelligence concerning
their roles hampers U.S. policy development."
"Also, some participants believe that no Arab
government will welcome the kind of lengthy
U.S. presence that would be required to install
and sustain a democratic government."
"A long-term, large-scale military intervention
may be at odds with many coalition partners."
---
Copyright 2006 The Associated Press.
All rights reserved.This material may not
be published, broadcast, rewritten, or
redistributed.
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