WARNING: November Races May Not Be As Close As They Appear
Thu Sep 28 2006 08:00:56 ET

Democratic pollsters are pushing lots of polls that show second- and
third-tier candidates performing surprisingly well. If most of these
challengers win, the Democrats will gain 30 or 40 House seats.

Obviously, that’s unlikely. Extremely unlikely, writes Stuart Rothenberg
in fresh editions of ROLL CALL.

MORE

Rothenberg: "Count me as skeptical, and not only because most of these
poll memos contain the dreaded “and when voters were read short
descriptions about the candidates” second ballot that allegedly measures a
challenger’s fundamental strength. If wishes were horses, beggars would
ride..."

"Well, I’ve seen that message, in one way or another, in almost every
Democratic polling memo that comes across my desk. They almost always cite
Bush’s standing. They almost all argue that voters want change or are
dissatisfied with the direction of the country.

"And they are right, but only so far."

Developing...