In a November ballot test, Kerry leads Bush 48 percent to 44 percent
among registered voters, with 6 percent currently supporting
independent candidate Ralph Nader.
Last month, Kerry and Bush were tied.
With Nader out of the race, Kerry's advantage swells to eight points
From The Washington Post, 6/21/04:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58293-2004Jun21.html
Bush Loses Support Over War on Terrorism
Nation Evenly Divided on President, Kerry
By Richard Morin and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, June 21, 2004; 5:45 PM
Public anxiety over mounting casualties in Iraq and the doubts about
long-term consequences of the war continue to rise and have helped to
erase President Bush's once-formidable advantage over Sen. John F.
Kerry on who is best able to deal with terrorist threats, according to
a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Exactly half the country now approves of the way Bush is managing the
U.S. war on terrorism, down 13 points since April, according to the
poll.
Barely two months ago, Bush comfortably led Kerry, the presumptive
Democratic nominee, by 21 percentage points when voters were asked
which man they trusted to deal with the terrorist threat.
Today the country is evenly divided, with 48 percent preferring Kerry
and 47 percent favoring Bush.
With less than 10 days to go before the United States turns over
governing power to a new government in Iraq, the survey shows that
Americans are coming to a mixed judgment about the costs and benefits
of the war.
Campaign advisers to both Bush and Kerry believe voters' conclusions
about Bush and Iraq will play a decisive role in determining the
outcome of the November election.
The shift is potentially significant because Bush has consistently
received higher marks on fighting terrorism than on Iraq.
If the decline signals a permanent loss of confidence in his handling
of the campaign against terrorism, that could undermine a central part
of Bush's reelection campaign message.
Overall the poll had mixed news for both candidates.
Bush's marks for handling the economy and Iraq both rose slightly
during the past month, but his overall approval rating remains below
50 percent.
Kerry leads Bush in a three-way test that includes independent Ralph
Nader and is seen as more honest and trustworthy than the president,
but those surveyed question whether he has a plan of his own for Iraq.
Fewer than half of those surveyed -- 47 percent -- say the war in Iraq
was worth fighting, while 52 percent say it was not, the highest level
of disapproval recorded in Post-ABC News polls.
Seven in 10 Americans now say there has been an "unacceptable" level
of casualties in Iraq, up six points from April and also a new high in
Post-ABC News polling
A majority say the United States should keep its forces in Iraq until
the country is stabilized, but the proportion who want to withdraw now
to avoid further casualties -- 42 percent -- has inched up again to a
new high.
Two in three Americans say the war has improved the lives of the Iraqi
people and a growing number of Americans say the United States is
making significant progress toward a democratic government there.
Last month, only 37 percent said they saw significant progress but 50
percent say so now.
The public is now sharply divided over whether the war contributed to
the long-term security of the United States, with barely half -- 51
percent -- saying it has, a new low in Post-ABC polls.
Three in four say the conflict has damaged the image of the United
States throughout the world and a majority believe the war has not
improved prospects for long-term peace and stability in the Middle
East.
Virtually all of the recent movement against the war has occurred
among political independents.
Among those with no firm party ties, the proportion who said the war
was "not worth fighting" increased from 48 percent in May to 59
percent in the latest poll.
Bush's approval rating on his handling of Iraq remains negative but
rose slightly in the past month to 44 percent, with 55 percent saying
they disapprove.
On the key domestic issue of the economy, 46 percent give Bush
positive marks, up seven points since March and his best showing since
January.
The survey also found that close to half the country currently rates
the health of the economy as "excellent" or "good," up six points from
March and the highest since July, 2001, and follows a succession of
positive economic statistics.
But improved marks on Iraq and the economy did not translate into a
rise in Bush's overall approval rating, nor did they improve his
standing against Kerry in a hypothetical November match up.
Bush's overall job approval rating held steady at 47 percent, at its
low point in Post-ABC News polls, while his disapproval rating reached
a new high of 51 percent.
That leaves Bush in a shaky position politically, based on the
rankings of other recent presidents seeking reelection.
In a November ballot test, Kerry leads Bush 48 percent to 44 percent
among registered voters, with 6 percent currently supporting
independent candidate Ralph Nader.
Last month, Kerry and Bush were tied.
With Nader out of the race, Kerry's advantage swells to eight points,
clear evidence of the continuing threat that the Nader candidacy poses
to the Democrat.
Interest in the campaign remains high while the proportion of
persuadable voters is low. Voters are paying attention to this race
earlier in the campaign than they did four years ago when Bush ran
against Al Gore.
Currently eight in 10 registered voters said they are following the
campaign -- slightly higher than the proportion that were paying
similar attention to the 2000 campaign three weeks before the
election.
Just one in 10 voters say there was a "good chance" they could change
their minds between now and November.
The survey found that Kerry's advantages over Bush extended to a range
of issues.
When asked which they trusted to do the better job, Kerry held a
double-digit advantage over Bush as the candidate the public preferred
to deal with health care (21 points), taxes (13 points), education (10
points), prescription drug benefits for the elderly (12 points) and
smaller leads on handling international affairs (8 points), the
economy (5 points) and the federal budget deficit (4 points).
In only one area -- Iraq -- was Bush more trusted, but by a narrow 50
percent to 45 percent margin.
The president is viewed as a stronger leader than Kerry and as the
candidate who can be most trusted in a crisis.
He is also seen as best able to "make the country safer and more
secure" and the one who "takes a position and sticks with it."
But by a 52 percent to 39 percent margin, Kerry is seen as more honest
and trustworthy -- a troubling finding for Bush whose truthfulness in
the run up to the war in Iraq has been called into question.
The survey also found that eight in 10 Americans support the transfer
of power from the U.S. led coalition to an interim Iraqi government on
June 30.
Nearly half -- 48 percent -- said it should be Iraqis who have the
final say over the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq, while just as many
say it should be the United States.
Big majorities say that the new Iraqi government and not the United
States also should control Iraqi's oil industry and handle the
distribution of aid from other countries.
A total of 1,201 randomly selected adults, including 1,015
self-described registered voters, were interviewed June 17-20 for this
telephone survey.
Margin of sampling error for the overall results is plus or minus 3
percentage points.
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Harry
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