| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"Captain Compassion" |
| Date: |
03 Feb 2007 04:00:30 PM |
| Object: |
Wet winter forecast has come up dry |
Wet winter forecast has come up dry
http://www.latimes.com/la-me-dry2feb02,0,6708138.story?coll=la-home-headlines
Federal weather officials who predicted a rainy El Niño pattern now
see only minimal potential. L.A. precipitation total could be a record
low.
By Hector Becerra, Times Staff Writer
February 2, 2007
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday
dramatically downgraded its forecast for a winter of warm El Niño
rains, the latest twist in a year of weird weather across Southern
California.
Federal weather officials had been saying for months that the region
would have a wet winter, but the Southland hasn't recorded significant
rain since May.
NOAA said the latest weather and ocean temperature data now show that
El Niño will have "minimal effects" across California and the rest of
North America, following the lead of other forecasters, who in recent
weeks said El Niño was fizzling.
"The problem with forecasting El Niño is that it's like shooting
craps," said William Patzert, a climatologist for the Jet Propulsion
Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge. "The dice are loaded with this
global warming thing, but we don't know exactly how they're loaded."
Some forecasters now believe the region is in for a record dry spell.
California was hit by a record heat wave that killed more than 100
people in the summer, and is just now emerging from a near-record cold
snap that destroyed at least $800 million worth of crops and brought a
dusting of snow to unexpected places, such as Westwood.
The one thing the weather extremes have in common is arid conditions —
so much so that the Metropolitan Water District is urging residents in
parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties to temporarily conserve
water because usage is double the normal for January, making it
difficult to repair equipment.
"It's been hot and dry, mild and dry and freezing and dry," said
Patzert. "The word that keeps popping up is 'dry.' "
The rainstorm earlier this week dropped only 0.18 inches of rain in
downtown L.A.
Since the rainfall season began in July, downtown has seen just 1.50
inches — 5.62 inches less than normal.
The rain totals are higher in some valley and hillside areas, but
still well below normal.
The latest storm "brought our monthly total for January in downtown
L.A. to a whopping 0.19 inches," said Jamie Meier, a meteorologist for
the National Weather Service in Oxnard. "And there's no rain expected
in the next seven days. There's nothing in sight to break the trend."
Forecasters said there is no easy explanation for the extreme weather.
But Patzert said the lack of a strong climate pattern like El Niño in
Southern California has allowed a polar jet stream to the north to
swing wildly.
The warm Pacific waters of El Niño usually moderate the cold weather
from the north. But this year, the polar jet stream has had a much
larger influence over local weather, Patzert said.
The results: Jan. 8 marked a warm-weather record of 88 degrees, while
less than a week later L.A. recorded a record low of 36 degrees.
"The climate is a lot like teenagers. If you don't give them
structure, you get a lot of bad behavior," Patzert said.
For perspective, consider the driest year in L.A.'s documented record:
In 2001-02, 3.66 inches of rain fell between July 1 and Jan. 31. Then
it got really dry. February, Southern California's wettest month,
produced virtually no rain, and March was no better.
Up to now, the 2006-2007 season has been even drier. But forecasters
still believe it's possible the region will see more rain later this
month and next. If it continues dry, however, officials said L.A.
could be on the road to setting another record.
The dry spell has stretched from the northern Sierra to San Diego.
"We're definitely on the dry bull's-eye," Patzert said. "The
bull's-eye's on L.A., but it's a bigger target."
--
There may come a time when the CO2 police will wander the earth telling
the poor and the dispossed how many dung chips they can put on their
cook fires. -- Captain Compassion.
Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not
on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away
with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone
are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices
me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS
"Civilization is the interval between Ice Ages." -- Will Durant.
"Progress is the increasing control of the environment by life.
--Will Durant
Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMverizon.net
.
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| User: "PagCal" |
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| Title: Re: Wet winter forecast has come up dry |
04 Feb 2007 05:46:53 AM |
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Captain Compassion wrote:
Wet winter forecast has come up dry
http://www.latimes.com/la-me-dry2feb02,0,6708138.story?coll=la-home-headlines
Federal weather officials who predicted a rainy El Niño pattern now
see only minimal potential. L.A. precipitation total could be a record
low.
Global warming models predict some areas will be drier, and some will be
wetter, but global warming doesn't predict daily, weekly, or monthly
weather. Why are you deliberately misusing Global Warming theories in
this way?
.
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| User: "Captain Compassion" |
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| Title: Re: Wet winter forecast has come up dry |
04 Feb 2007 02:22:16 PM |
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On Sun, 04 Feb 2007 06:46:53 -0500, PagCal <pagcal@runbox.com> wrote:
Captain Compassion wrote:
Wet winter forecast has come up dry
http://www.latimes.com/la-me-dry2feb02,0,6708138.story?coll=la-home-headlines
Federal weather officials who predicted a rainy El Niño pattern now
see only minimal potential. L.A. precipitation total could be a record
low.
Global warming models predict some areas will be drier, and some will be
wetter, but global warming doesn't predict daily, weekly, or monthly
weather. Why are you deliberately misusing Global Warming theories in
this way?
Models predicted the current weather patterns so tell me again about
the value of models.
"The strategies for making mathematical models for observed phenomena
have been evolving since ancient times. An organism-- physical,
biological, or social-- is observed in different states. This observed
system is the target of the modeling activity. Its states cannot
really be described by only a few observable parameters, but we
pretend that they can." --Ralph Abraham and Christopher Shaw,
Dynamics: The Geometry of Behavior
"All models are wrong, but some are useful". -- George E. P. Box
--
There may come a time when the CO2 police will wander the earth telling
the poor and the dispossed how many dung chips they can put on their
cook fires. -- Captain Compassion.
Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not
on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away
with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone
are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices
me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS
"Civilization is the interval between Ice Ages." -- Will Durant.
"Progress is the increasing control of the environment by life.
--Will Durant
Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMverizon.net
.
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