| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"Le Mod Pol" |
| Date: |
05 Feb 2004 08:24:13 PM |
| Object: |
What the future holds |
Hamid Reza Zakeri claims to have been a member of the
Iranian intelligence service. He said 9/11 was a "joint
venture" between al Qa'eda and the Iranian government.
What the future holds
by Jack Kelly
Most of us want to know the future. That's why
astrology columns are so popular, and why so many of us
still listen intently to the pundits who were so wrong
about Iowa prognosticate about the New Hampshire
primary and beyond.
But most of us expect the future to be pretty much like
the present. We ought to know better. Sept. 11, 2001
changed a great many things. We may be in for another
shock this year.
The Democrats want very much to defeat George W. Bush
this year. So do the terrorists. They reason - rightly,
I think - that their only hope of prevailing is if Bush
is replaced by a Democrat. They are all but certain to
try to do something big to influence the election.
The Baathist remnant in Iraq isn't in a position to do
much, and al Qa'eda might not be, either. The audio
tape purportedly by Osama bin Laden released on Jan. 4
is being interpreted by some in the intelligence
community as a sign Saddam may have had enough.
On the tape, Osama bemoans the "pitch black
misfortunes" brought about by America's defeat of
Saddam. But he doesn't propose to remedy the situation
by further attacks on the United States. Instead, he
urges his followers to replace Arab governments he
finds unsatisfactory.
"This audio tape may be Osama waving the white flag,"
speculated Jack Wheeler, who runs a geopolitical
analysis service. "He knows that GW's number one goal
is to kill him, and may be signaling that he will not
be provoking Americans any more."
The danger comes from Iran. Since the overthrow of the
Shah in 1979, the clerical dictatorship in Iran has
been the most active state sponsor of terrorism. Iran
was behind the bombings of the Marine barracks and the
U.S. embassy in Lebanon in 1983, and the Khobar Towers
barracks bombing in Saudi Arabia in 1996.
Iran may also have had a hand in the most devastating
terror attack of all. The trial in Germany of a
suspected Sept. 11 accomplice was delayed Jan. 21 when
the government produced a surprise witness who claimed
Iran had a hand in the hijackings.
Hamid Reza Zakeri claims to have been a member of the
Iranian intelligence service. He said 9/11 was a "joint
venture" between al Qa'eda and the Iranian government.
Some German intelligence officers doubt Zakeri's story.
But Kenneth Timmerman, a reporter for Insight magazine,
has been able to corroborate physical details of
Zakeri's story. And last year the Chicago Tribune
reported that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a prominent al
Qa'eda figure, has close ties to Iran.
About a third of Iraq's Shi'ia Muslims favor
establishing an Iranian-style theocracy. Former CIA
officer Constantine Menges said in the Washington Times
Jan 27 Iran is assisting a radical cleric in plotting a
coup - possibly in October - against the Iraqi
government to which the United States hands power June
30.
Iranian-backed Hizbollah terrorists have been
infiltrating into Iraq from Lebanon, said Menges and
Michael Ledeen of the American Enterprise Institute.
"It is quite likely they are planning massive terrorist
attacks on U.S. forces for the spring, summer and fall
of 2004, as well as the taking of hostages," Menges
said. "These hostages would likely be made available to
the media with the intention of demonstrating the
failure of Bush policy." Mansoor Ijaz, whose has ties
to the Pakistani intelligence service, said Jan. 13
that up to 29 missiles with chemical warheads have been
smuggled into Iraq from Iran.
Fortunately, the mad mullahs in Tehran have problems of
their own. A deeply unpopular government became even
more so after the devastating earthquake in Bam on
Christmas Day.
A massive boycott is being organized for the
parliamentary elections slated for Feb. 20 because the
mullahs have prohibited 3,000 candidates from running
for election, including 80 members of the outgoing
Parliament. Things in the Middle East may be very much
better or very much worse by November. But they are
most unlikely to be the same as they are now.
Jack Kelly, a former Marine and Green Beret, was a
deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the
Reagan administration.
--
LP
In politics, moderation is the best policy.
.
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