| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"Harry Hope" |
| Date: |
26 Jan 2005 01:20:52 PM |
| Object: |
Widening Bush trade, budget deficits begin to hurt |
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2005/01/27/stories/2005012701370600.htm
Widening US trade, budget deficits begin to hurt -- Dollar losing
favour with most central banks
Batuk Gathani
In recent months the US has become more dependent on few central banks
rather than on millions of foreign investors to finance its trade and
revenue deficits as the latest statistics reveal that 83 per cent of
the US deficit is financed by foreign central banks.
Brussels , Jan. 26
THE world's most prominent 65 central banks which control
$1.7-trillion worth of assets have taken part in a survey whose
results have been published.
They display a marked change of attitude over the past two years in
the background of ever widening American trade and fiscal deficits.
This is highlighted by a dramatic decline of the dollar as central
bankers boost their current holdings in euro and display a marked
shift of turning away from the US currency.
It is revealed that at the end of 2003, the central banks held 70 per
cent of their reserves in dollar-dominated assets and their purchases
of the American securities financed 80 per cent of the US current
account deficit.
All that is fast changing as these banks move into euro.
As one central banker put it: " central banks' enthusiasm for the
dollar is cooling off."
The latest revelation cannot be rated as an eye opener but confirms
more pessimistic perceptions of the global financial community about
the state and health of the US economy.
Greenspan warning:
As Mr Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, warned in
November that there was a limit to "willingness of foreign governments
to finance the US current account deficit."
The prominent Bush administration officials, including the President
himself, have displayed eerie enthusiasm to contain the challenges
posed by ever widening US current account and trade deficits; but this
is widely interpreted a "futile exercise in rhetoric".
There is also much disappointment in key European and Asian markets
that the Presidential address by the re-elected Mr George Bush
highlighted the cause of democracy and freedom, but made no reference
to the decline of the dollar and widening trade and revenue deficits.
In recent months the US has become more dependent on few central banks
rather than on millions of foreign investors to finance its trade and
revenue deficits as the latest statistics reveal that 83 per cent of
the US deficit is financed by foreign central banks.
With current spectre of central banks "cooling off" from the US and
dollar, there is speculation about future trends and the debate is on
for how long can such a scenario be sustained.
The US current account deficit is currently hovering around
$650-billion mark.
Even OPEC has cut the proportion of dollar deposits from 75 to 60 per
cent and Russia is following the same pattern.
Bitter reality: Leading Asian central banks are also adjusting their
exposure to the-dollar related securities.
Although no central bank is likely to pull the plug on dollar assets,
the reality is that many of them are switching into euro assets.
Sixteen of the responding central banks in the latest survey say they
have cut their exposure to yen and three quarters of those bankers
have increased their euro exposure.
It is argued that plunging dollar could be the big risk facing
President Bush in his second term and although the jury may be out for
years on the US inflation, the verdict on the dollar has quickly come
in.
It also remains to be seen, if the weak dollar can create demand for
the US manufactured goods and services and the current reality is that
the impact is at "best insignificant".
China is not likely to oblige by revaluing its currency and China now
accounts for a quarter of the American trade deficit.
The dollar has fallen at all-time low against the euro and recent
appreciation in value of the dollar may not be sustained.
Hence, the growing external deficits of the "world's sole superpower"
is causing concern as the US has "put the global economy on a path
that is not merely sustainable but dangerously so" - as analysts put
it.
The world has also displayed an insatiable and perhaps dangerous
hunger for American assets.
However, slowly but surely all that is fast changing, if; latest
findings of the central bank survey are any criterion.
_____________________________________________________
The Bush-built road's gettin' kinda rocky, folks.
Harry
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| User: "kalev-" |
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| Title: Re: Widening Bush trade, budget deficits begin to hurt |
27 Jan 2005 04:27:46 AM |
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Harry Hope wrote:
The US current account deficit is currently hovering around
$650-billion mark.
I keep reading *way* too differing numbers...
US federal budget -5.7%
I've seen deficit amounts: "close to $500 billion" but
also "400 billion". The above "$650-billion mark" is a new record.
Is it really that hard to do the math?!
My little pet project is to record some key numbers to get some
kind of ball-park view where the economy is headed...
--
Every day above ground is a good day
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