Worry About the Right Things
By John Stossel
Wednesday, April 4, 2007

For the past two weeks I've written about how the media -- part of the
Fear Industrial Complex -- profit by scaring us to death about things
that rarely happen, like terrorism, child abductions, and shark
attacks.

We do it because we get caught up in the excitement of the story. And
for ratings.

Worse, because many reporters are statistically illiterate,
personal-injury lawyers get us to hype risks that barely threaten
people, like secondhand smoke, or getting cancer from trace amounts of
chemicals. Sometimes they even con us into scaring you about risks
that don't exist at all, like contracting anti-immune disease from
breast implants.

Newsrooms are full of English majors who acknowledge that they are not
good at math, but still rush to make confident pronouncements about a
global-warming "crisis" and the coming of bird flu.

Bird flu was called the No. 1 threat to the world. But bird flu has
killed no one in America, while regular flu -- the boring kind --
kills tens of thousands. New York City internist Marc Siegel says that
after the media hype, his patients didn't want to hear that.

"I say, 'You need a flu shot.' You know the regular flu is killing
36,000 per year. They say, 'Don't talk to me about regular flu. What
about bird flu?'"

Here's another example. What do you think is more dangerous, a house
with a pool or a house with a gun? When, for "20/20," I asked some
kids, all said the house with the gun is more dangerous. I'm sure
their parents would agree. Yet a child is 100 times more likely to die
in a swimming pool than in a gun accident.

Parents don't know that partly because the media hate guns and gun
accidents make bigger headlines. Ask yourself which incident would be
more likely to be covered on TV.

Media exposure clouds our judgment about real-life odds. Of course, it
doesn't help that viewers are as ignorant about probability as
reporters are.

To demonstrate that, "20/20" ran an experiment. We asked people to put
on blindfolds and then to pick up a red jellybean from one of two
plates that held a mixture of red and white jellybeans. We offered $1
to anyone who could pick up a red bean.

Here's the catch: While one plate held 20 jellybeans and the other
100, the plate with 20 beans had a higher percentage of red ones. We
put up signs that told people this clearly: "10 percent red" of the
small plate and just "7 percent red" of the big plate.

Surprisingly, even with the percentage signs in front of them, a third
of the people picked the plate with 100 beans.

What people saw overwhelmed their ability to think abstractly about
probability. They saw more red on the big plate. It's one reason
people obsess about things that have a small chance of hurting them
but ignore real threats.

Another is the illusion of control. People who fear flying are
comfortable driving because they think they're "in control." Yet
driving is probably the riskiest thing most of us do. Think about it:
We drive at 65 mph, a few feet from other cars -- some of which are
driven by 16-year olds! And our cameras have caught people curling
their eyelashes and reading while driving.

A hundred people die on the road every day. But the media are much
more likely to do scare stories about plane crashes than car
accidents.

So take our reporting with heavy skepticism. Ignore us when we
hyperventilate about mad cow disease and the danger of asbestos hidden
behind a wall.

Instead, worry about what's worth worrying about: driving, acting
reckless, smoking cigarettes, drinking too much, and eating too much.
"What is your blood pressure, what are you eating; are you
exercising?" is what patients should think about, says internist Marc
Siegel. "But obesity is boring. Heart disease is boring. So we tend to
not think of the things that can really get us."

The media make it worse. Instead of educating people to real dangers,
we scare them about things that hardly matter.

--
There may come a time when the CO2 police will wander the earth telling
the poor and the dispossed how many dung chips they can put on their
cook fires. -- Captain Compassion.

Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not
on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away
with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone
are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices
me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS

"Civilization is the interval between Ice Ages." -- Will Durant.

"Progress is the increasing control of the environment by life.
--Will Durant

Joseph R. Darancette
dar...@NOSPAMcharter.net

Worry About the Right Things
By John Stossel
Wednesday, April 4, 2007

For the past two weeks I've written about how the media -- part of the
Fear Industrial Complex -- profit by scaring us to death about things
that rarely happen, like terrorism, child abductions, and shark
attacks.

We do it because we get caught up in the excitement of the story. And
for ratings.

Worse, because many reporters are statistically illiterate,
personal-injury lawyers get us to hype risks that barely threaten
people, like secondhand smoke, or getting cancer from trace amounts of
chemicals. Sometimes they even con us into scaring you about risks
that don't exist at all, like contracting anti-immune disease from
breast implants.

Newsrooms are full of English majors who acknowledge that they are not
good at math, but still rush to make confident pronouncements about a
global-warming "crisis" and the coming of bird flu.

Bird flu was called the No. 1 threat to the world. But bird flu has
killed no one in America, while regular flu -- the boring kind --
kills tens of thousands. New York City internist Marc Siegel says that
after the media hype, his patients didn't want to hear that.

"I say, 'You need a flu shot.' You know the regular flu is killing
36,000 per year. They say, 'Don't talk to me about regular flu. What
about bird flu?'"

Here's another example. What do you think is more dangerous, a house
with a pool or a house with a gun? When, for "20/20," I asked some
kids, all said the house with the gun is more dangerous. I'm sure
their parents would agree. Yet a child is 100 times more likely to die
in a swimming pool than in a gun accident.

Parents don't know that partly because the media hate guns and gun
accidents make bigger headlines. Ask yourself which incident would be
more likely to be covered on TV.

Media exposure clouds our judgment about real-life odds. Of course, it
doesn't help that viewers are as ignorant about probability as
reporters are.

To demonstrate that, "20/20" ran an experiment. We asked people to put
on blindfolds and then to pick up a red jellybean from one of two
plates that held a mixture of red and white jellybeans. We offered $1
to anyone who could pick up a red bean.

Here's the catch: While one plate held 20 jellybeans and the other
100, the plate with 20 beans had a higher percentage of red ones. We
put up signs that told people this clearly: "10 percent red" of the
small plate and just "7 percent red" of the big plate.

Surprisingly, even with the percentage signs in front of them, a third
of the people picked the plate with 100 beans.

What people saw overwhelmed their ability to think abstractly about
probability. They saw more red on the big plate. It's one reason
people obsess about things that have a small chance of hurting them
but ignore real threats.

Another is the illusion of control. People who fear flying are
comfortable driving because they think they're "in control." Yet
driving is probably the riskiest thing most of us do. Think about it:
We drive at 65 mph, a few feet from other cars -- some of which are
driven by 16-year olds! And our cameras have caught people curling
their eyelashes and reading while driving.

A hundred people die on the road every day. But the media are much
more likely to do scare stories about plane crashes than car
accidents.

So take our reporting with heavy skepticism. Ignore us when we
hyperventilate about mad cow disease and the danger of asbestos hidden
behind a wall.

Instead, worry about what's worth worrying about: driving, acting
reckless, smoking cigarettes, drinking too much, and eating too much.
"What is your blood pressure, what are you eating; are you
exercising?" is what patients should think about, says internist Marc
Siegel. "But obesity is boring. Heart disease is boring. So we tend to
not think of the things that can really get us."

The media make it worse. Instead of educating people to real dangers,
we scare them about things that hardly matter.

--