| Topic: |
Science > Prophecies-Of-Nostradamus |
| User: |
"The Angry Hierophant" |
| Date: |
18 Aug 2005 10:05:11 AM |
| Object: |
Afghanistan: A Helicopter Crash Hints at a Taliban Expansion |
Afghanistan: A Helicopter Crash Hints at a Taliban Expansion
August 17, 2005 22 23 GMT
Summary
Spanish Defense Minister Jose Bono said Aug. 16 that a Spanish military
helicopter that crashed in Afghanistan could have been shot down by
militants. Initial reports, by contrast, indicated the helicopter
crashed accidentally as it participated in a mission to prepare for the
Sept. 18 Afghan parliamentary election. The downing of another North
Atlantic Treaty Organization helicopter in Afghanistan suggests the
Taliban are focusing their efforts on disrupting the elections and
expanding their areas of operation.
Analysis
A Spanish military helicopter crashed near Herat, in western
Afghanistan, on Aug. 16, killing all 17 troops on board. The helicopter
was part of a two-ship formation on a mission to practice
election-support operations.
Although North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officials in
Afghanistan are not saying that the helicopter was attacked, Spanish
officials have not ruled out the possibility that enemy action caused
the crash of the AS-532 chopper. Another NATO helicopter down in
Afghanistan would suggest that the Taliban are expanding their areas of
operation and focusing their efforts on disrupting this fall's Afghan
parliamentary election.
The French-developed AS-532 Cougar helicopter is a twin-engine,
multirole helicopter about the same size and weight as the U.S.-made
UH-60 Blackhawk. These aircraft have been adapted for a variety of
uses, including combat transport, medical evacuation and
search-and-rescue roles. A similar Spanish Cougar helicopter
transported five Slovenian mountain troops onto a mountaintop 20 miles
east of Kabul in February to search through the torn fuselage of an
Afghan airliner that crashed in bad weather.
The area around Herat, which is patrolled primarily by non-U.S. troops,
has been relatively quiet. Thus, if the Aug. 16 incident resulted from
a hostile attack, it would indicate a renewed Taliban presence in the
area. Two reasons explain any expansion of Taliban operations into
Herat province.
First, since the spring thaw, U.S. forces have actively engaged Taliban
and al Qaeda militants in their strongholds in southern and eastern
Afghanistan, particularly to the north and east of Kabul. During one
such combat operation, a U.S. Army CH-47 Chinook helicopter was shot
down on June 28, 2005, near Asadabad, deep in Taliban and al Qaeda
territory in Kunar province. That incident was part of a U.S. effort to
force the militants to exhaust themselves as a fighting force prior to
the Sept. 18 Afghan parliamentary election. Because of this increased
pressure in those parts of Afghanistan, the Taliban and their allies
could be migrating to regions with less of a U.S. presence. It should
be noted that about half of Herat province and neighboring areas are
populated by Pashtuns, who are by far the main supporters of the
Taliban and other anti-U.S. forces fighting in the country -- the
Taliban leadership and much of their manpower are Pashtun.
Second, the lack of a substantial U.S. military presence around Herat
would make the area attractive to militants. The U.S. units deployed in
eastern and southern Afghanistan are well-equipped, seasoned troops
experienced in counterinsurgency operations. By contrast, NATO troops
in western Afghanistan focus mainly on reconstruction and stabilization
projects.
Some evidence supports the theory that the Spanish helicopter was shot
down. First, a pilot who called the relatives of the crash victims said
the helicopter was downed by ground fire. Some of the soldiers from the
helicopter that accompanied the downed craft corroborated this account.
Also, the Taliban issued a statement claiming they downed the Spanish
helicopter. Given the Taliban claim and the accounts of the Spanish
pilot and soldiers, the hostile-fire account may be true. Strengthening
this view, Mullah Dadullah made the Taliban claim. Dadullah is one of
the most combat-tested Taliban commanders, known for leading from the
front in combat against U.S., Afghan, and coalition forces. Moreover,
Mullah Dadullah is considered a fairly credible source, unlike some
Taliban commanders who have made false statements, such as claiming
credit for operations in which they did not participate.
If the Spanish Cougar was shot down, it would represent the second
major loss of a helicopter during combat since late June, when the U.S.
Chinook went down. This could indicate that the Taliban are employing
tactics and procedures for successfully attacking helicopters learned
during the 1979-1989 Soviet-Afghan War.
The most likely reason for a Taliban emphasis on helicopters is that
helicopters have proven to be the most dangerous weapon against the
Taliban and their allies, just as Soviet helicopters represented the
main menace to the Mujahideen. By attacking helicopters, the Taliban
hope to force the multinational forces to limit the use of the
helicopters in combat. Also, by making attacking helicopters their
major focus, the Taliban increase the chances of inflicting
significantly higher casualties on U.S. and allied forces, something
the total of 33 U.S. and Spanish soldiers killed makes grimly clear.
Usually, the Taliban suffer disproportionate casualties in combat with
coalition forces.
By expanding their operations into western Afghanistan and reviving
their hunt for U.S. and coalition helicopters, the Taliban are trying
to make their summer offensive -- already fully engaged -- more
effective. For them, this war is a war of attrition; the Taliban do not
expect a quick withdrawal of U.S. forces. But the Taliban also have a
more immediate goal with their offensive: By attacking government
forces and supporters, the Taliban hopes to disrupt the fall
parliamentary election -- the success of which is critical for
improving the security and for governing the country. In particular, by
expanding the war to the west, the Taliban could increase the number of
voting districts where hostilities make voting impossible or
undesirable for locals.
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