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Science > Prophecies-Of-Nostradamus |
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28 Aug 2006 10:49:13 PM |
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Analysis: Iran's nuclear showdown |
http://wpherald.com/articles/1034/1/Analysis-Irans-nuclear-showdown/The-military-solution.html
Analysis: Iran's nuclear showdown
By Arnaud de Borchgrave | Published Today | Iran , Peace and Conflict
| Rating:
The military solution
By ARNAUD DE BORCHGRAVE
UPI Editor at Large
Just days before the U.N. Security Council deadline for Iran to cease
and desist enriching uranium, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gave the
West the Iranian bird. By inaugurating a "heavy-water" reactor, Iran
instantly doubled its chances of acquiring nuclear weapons. Adding
insult to injury, the military mullahs test-fired a new long-range
missile -- the Thaqeb, or Saturn, a submarine to surface weapon.
The new reactor runs on natural uranium mined by Iran and skips the
difficult enrichment phase to produce plutonium, which gives nukes the
power to obliterate entire cities. Of course, all these efforts, says
Iran's president, is to treat and diagnose AIDS and cancer patients.
And -- we almost forgot -- to generate more power to improve
agriculture. The fact that Iran has sufficient oil reserves to generate
electric power for generations to come is conveniently overlooked.
Iran is now confident neither Russia nor China will go along with
meaningful economic sanctions. Moscow says sanctions have never worked,
ignoring those that collapsed South Africa's apartheid regime. The
handwriting on the geopolitical landscape has convinced Israel and its
core support in the United States, from the neocons to the Christian
Right, that a military solution is inescapable.
Leading conservatives have said World War III -- the ultimate clash of
civilizations -- has been underway since 9/11. Some neocons say it
started when the mullahs forced the Shah into exile and seized power in
Iran in early 1979 -- and that President George W. Bush and Britain's
Prime Minister Tony Blair are treading water among the appeasers. They
remind Bush he vowed not to leave office without first ensuring that
"the worst weapons will not fall into the worst hands" and thus Iran
cannot become a nuclear power. And their ideological guide Richard
Perle goes so far as to accuse Bush, who knows that Iran has pursued a
secret nuclear weapons program for the past 19 years, of opting for
"ignominious retreat."
Overlooked in this calculus is Bush's burden of two wars, Afghanistan
and Iraq, and a much-diminished U.S. military. A third front against
Iran, an ancient civilization of 70 million with global retaliatory
capabilities (e.g., Hezbollah), is a frightening prospect that conjures
up the nightmare of a return to the draft.
Bush believes deeply that Iran poses an existential threat to close
ally Israel. Congress recently voted a resolution that said an attack
on Israel is an attack on the United States. Bush also believes Iran is
determined to sabotage American hopes of establishing a new democratic
Middle East. In Iraq, clandestine Iranian aid, from sophisticated
"Improvised Explosive Devices" to funds and weapons to the two main
Shiite militias, may be designed to maneuver the United States into a
humiliating, Vietnam-like withdrawal from Iraq.
Given President Bush's overarching dedication to "winning the Global
War on Terrorism," said one former senior intelligence analyst, the
neutralization of Iran has become a sine qua non, "equal if not higher
on his list of priorities than 'victory' in Iraq, another impossibility
that he is unwilling to recognize, even privately, much less
acknowledge publicly."
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http://wpherald.com/articles/1034/2/Analysis-Irans-nuclear-showdown/Israel-not-taking-any-chances.html
Israel not taking any chances
Bush's national security advisers have also pointed out that an
escalating danger of U.S.-Iran military confrontation automatically
intensifies internal and regional opposition to U.S. objectives in
Iraq.
The president keeps reminding private interlocutors to think of how
history will judge this critical period 15 to 20 years hence. He sees
personal and national humiliation if he were to leave office having
acquiesced to an embryonic Iranian nuclear arsenal.
So odds makers are betting that sometime before the end of his second
term, President Bush will order a massive air attack on a wide range of
carefully selected targets in Iran, in partnership with Israel, and
against the advice of many of his advisers. Bush is convinced a nuclear
Iran would pose an intolerable threat to U.S. national security and, as
one former intelligence topsider put it, "he is firm in his faith that
God agrees with him on that point, and certain that history will
eventually recognize and properly appreciate his courageous and
visionary leadership."
This raises the question of Congressional approval. As George Will said
to ABC's George Stephanopoulos two Sundays ago, when was the last time
this president ever worried about getting approval in advance from the
Congress or the public?
In any event, Israel is not taking any chances. Deputy Prime Minister
Shimon Peres said last week Israel would not be the first to attack
Iran. Other Israeli voices are saying Israel will have to do just that.
And Israel recently added a new command to the IDF -- the "Iran
Command." Its new commander is Maj. Gen. Elyezer Shkedy, Israel's Air
Force chief. Israel's strategic thinkers and military planners take the
diminutive Ahmadinejad at his word when he says Israel must be "wiped
off the map."
Most worrisome for Israel is Hezbollah's recent military performance
against the IDF in Lebanon. The perception is this Iranian surrogate
resisted and repelled a mighty foe. The reality is Iran's new-mown
conviction Israel can be defeated. So Israel will now have to prove,
yet again, it cannot.
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