| Topic: |
Science > Prophecies-Of-Nostradamus |
| User: |
"Arnold Holbrook" |
| Date: |
05 Aug 2004 09:20:59 AM |
| Object: |
Battle for Leadership in China: Jiang To Play the Taiwan Card? |
Battle for Leadership in China: Jiang To Play the Taiwan Card?
August 04, 2004
Summary
An approaching Central Committee plenum could provide the impetus for
former Chinese President and Communist Party General Secretary Jiang
Zemin to rig a crisis with Taiwan -- for his own political gain.
Analysis
Former Chinese President and Communist Party General Secretary Jiang
Zemin is resisting pressure to retire as chairman of the Central
Military Commission (CMC) during the party's Central Committee plenum
in September. Chinese political and military leaders have quietly
expressed dissatisfaction over serving both Jiang and Chinese
President and Communist Party General Hu Jintao, and many would like
to see Jiang go -- Hu most of all.
The struggle between Hu and Jiang is heading toward a potentially
conclusive confrontation. Jiang, fearing he could face mounting
political pressure to step down during the meeting, could consider
extreme measures to justify remaining in his post -- including
engineering a crisis with Taiwan.
Jiang's predecessor, Deng Xiaoping, served as CMC chairman for two
years, until 1989, after stepping down from the Politburo Standing
Committee. Jiang transferred power to Hu in September 2002 and is
expected to follow Deng's example. Jiang, however, already has
signaled that he does not intend to relinquish his power.
Despite a mandatory retirement age of 70 for the CMC chairman, the
77-year-old Jiang appears determined to serve his full five-year term
-- and to follow Deng's example and control the country from behind
the throne. But Jiang is no Deng. China's former paramount leader is
regarded as a revolutionary hero and is credited with building a new
vision for China after the turbulent Mao years. He enjoyed a far more
extensive political base than Jiang now holds. Jiang cannot fade into
the background and continue to pull the strings; to maintain power, he
needs to remain in control of the Chinese military -- the ultimate
arbiter in a confrontation.
Jiang is fighting for his political life -- and a cornered Chinese
leader can be dangerous. Mao stirred the masses in the violent
national political movement known as the Cultural Revolution when he
feared that ultimate power was drifting into the hands of President
Liu Shaoqi and Deng, who was Party secretary at the time. Jiang does
not have the political or philosophical credentials to incite a mass
movement of his own. His only trump card, for the moment, is the
military.
Since the re-election of Taiwan President Chen Shuibain, Jiang and the
military have issued a steady stream of fiery rhetoric, going so far
as to say war with Taiwan is inevitable. Aggressive posturing has
followed the tough talk. In the third week of July, nearly 18,000
Chinese troops participated in war games on and around Dongshan Island
off China's southeastern coast across from Taiwan. After those games,
3,000 members of China's militia held two-day maneuvers focusing on
providing support to the military in case of war. The exercises were
designed as much to stir up nationalistic sentiment as to intimidate
Taiwan.
Hu has somewhat downplayed the aggressive rhetoric and the military
maneuvers over the past few weeks. He has been more inclined to stress
China's "peaceful development" and a political instead of military
solution for reunifying with Taiwan. The contradictory rhetoric is
part of Beijing's dual message that it "prefers peace but is not
afraid of war." However, with Hu consistently playing the role of dove
to Jiang's hawk, the Taiwan issue has become part of the political
battleground between the two.
This sets a stage for Jiang and the military to engineer a crisis in
the Taiwan Strait -- say a brief air or naval clash -- to bolster
their political capital with a wave of nationalism. Jiang could use
the crisis to justify remaining at the helm of the military during the
plenum in September, and thus frustrate efforts to push him into
retirement.
Others besides Jiang's political and military constituency could
welcome such a plan. Chinese leaders are frustrated with the unceasing
political competition between Hu and Jiang. Although the former
president's power seems to be declining, Hu does not appear powerful
enough to take total control. Some in Beijing might welcome Jiang's
reassertion of power and clarification of the chain of command.
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