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Comet Hysteria and the Millennium:
A Commentary
By Gary W. Kronk

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Whether you like it or not, there are a lot of gullible people in
the world. It is truly amazing what people will believe. But, what's
worse, it is upsetting how many people are out there who try and take
advantage of those people. Now I am not going to spend my time addressing
all the lies people are falling for on an everyday basis, but I would like
to address something that particularly bugs me.
For nearly 30 years I have enjoyed observing comets. I have
seen well over 110. My interest in this branch of astronomy is so great
that I have also spent a lot of time reading about comets, doing my own
research, and even talking to the experts in this field. The result is an
increased enjoyment while observing, the publication of two books about
comets, and I even give occasional talks on the subject.
Although my books are basically reference works for other
researchers, my own research has brought me into contact with a lot of
interesting stories about how people in ancient and medieval times reacted
toward comets. These stories are the kind of anecdotal material I like to
intersperse throughout my talks when I need to lighten things up a bit.
These include the following:


*The comet of 79 was blamed for the eruption of Vesuvius that led
to the destruction of the cities of Pompeii and Herculaneum.
*Halley's Comet of 1066 was hanging in the sky for two months while
the English and Normans were planning for an invasion. At the Battle of
Hastings a few months later the Normans emerged as victors and from that
time on the comet was said to have been a sign that favored William the
Conqueror.
*The comet of 1665 was said to have been responsible for the Black
Plague that killed 90 thousand people in London.
*The appearance of Halley's Comet in 1835 was blamed for several
things, including the fall of the Alamo, the destruction of 530 buildings
in New York City because of a fire that raged for several days and nights,
the massacre of over 280 people in Africa by ten thousand Zulu warriors,
and wars that erupted in Cuba, Mexico, Equador, Central America, Peru,
Argentina, and Bolivia.

These stories are basically examples of hindsight, or links
that were made by modern people to explain things in the past. Sometimes
the dates of historical events can not be perfectly matched to the
appearance of a comet so a slightly different way is created to establish
blame, such as the following:


*The appearance of Halley's Comet in 66 was said to have been "a
warning" of the fall of Jerusalem in 70.
*The appearance of Halley's Comet in 1456 was said to have been "a
heavenly comment" on the successful 1453 invasion of Constantinople by the
Turks.

Once again these are examples of hindsight.

With the invention of newspapers, the telegraph, and the
telephone came an increase in communication between people. Although
doomsayers have always existed, this opened up a new avenue for them to
pass their word to others. Perhaps the first major test of this came with
the appearance of Halley's Comet in 1910.
A little bit of scientific information in the wrong hands can
be dangerous. During the latter half of the 19th century astronomers had
developed a tool that enabled them to analyze the light being reflected by
comets. One of the first discoveries was that comets reflected sunlight,
which makes a lot of sense to us nowadays since we know comets do not emit
light, but this did surprise of lot of people. Interestingly, however,
bright comets would actually reflect sunlight as it passed through their
own dense clouds of dust and gas. This allowed astronomers to begin
determining what comets were actually made of. One of the earliest
discoveries was that comets contained cyanogen, a very poisonous gas.
As Halley's Comet approached the sun in 1910, astronomers
announced that Earth would actually pass through the tail of this comet
during May of that year. They assured everyone that our planet was safe
and suggested the possibility of some spectacular sunsets. Meanwhile, the
doomsayers latched onto a potential link: if comets contain a poisonous
gas and if Earth is going to pass through the comet's tail, then the
people of Earth were in serious danger. Numerous newspapers actually
published this story. Astronomers countered by saying the material in the
tail was so spread out that there could be no ill affects, but few
newspapers published this accurate information. Interestingly, a minor
panic arose in some cities and entrepreneurs took advantage of it. They
sold "comet pills" which were said to counter the effects of the poisonous
gas. The pills sold like crazy. On May 20, after Earth had passed through
the tail, everyone who had taken the pills was still alive...but, then, so
was everyone else.
Interestingly, comet-caused panics basically vanished during
most of the remainder of the 20th century. But during the last few years
"end-of-the-world" predictions have become hot topics in supermarket
tabloids, the WorldWideWeb, and on radio and television programs. The
WorldWideWeb is probably the most to blame where anyone with a computer,
with any degree of intelligence, could access the sites and take in as
much information as they wish. Why all the interest in these predictions?
The following are some of the contributing factors:


*The end of the Millennium: although the world has passed through
numerous 1000-year cycles before, some people are becoming worried about
this one, mainly for religious reasons. There are numerous books written
about the subject, articles in magazines, and lots of WWW sites which help
fuel the fear. Interestingly, research into texts written during the 990s
revealed millennium panics were present.
*Prophecies: For some reason, things said by people who talk in
their sleep have always been a source of fascination. This time around, it
is the 16th-century prophet Nostradamus. His ambiguous statements have
been linked to many historical events through hindsight. Various newly
published interpretations indicate that he claims something big would
happen around the time of the new millennium.
*Astronomical Disaster: The 1980s sparked a revelation of sorts for
astronomers as they discovered that something big had hit Earth 65 million
years ago and wiped out the dinosaurs. An increased interest by
astronomers, geologists, and biologists helped identify several other
cataclismic events that caused a large loss of life on our planet.
Asteroids or comets have been suggested for some of these events. As the
1990s began new programs were funded that enabled some observatories to
start serious, devoted searches for objects that might threaten Earth in
the future.
*Hollywood: Improved computer power was being used to help improve
the appearance of movies. This led to a series of movies on both
television and the big screen that tried to depict what it would be like
for Earth to be hit by a large asteroid or comet.
*Conspiracy Theories: Ever since the assassination of President
John F. Kennedy in 1963, people have become more suspicious.
Unfortunately, some have become more suspicious than others. This has led
some people to doubt the validity of investigations into the
assassinations of President Kennedy, his brother Robert in 1968, and
Martin Luther King, also in 1968. There are people who doubt the United
States Air Force's report stating that UFOs were not extraterrestrial. And
there are people who believe that the multiple missions to the moon were
all faked.

Of course, none of the above would mean anything if it was not
for the media. People go to newspapers, radio, and television for news,
but the success of papers like the National Enquirer, radio programs like
the Art Bell show, and television programs like the Jerry Springer show
all indicate that sensationalism sells. Sensationalism has unforturnately
taken hold on the WWW and it has been here that pseudoscience has joined
up with the above factors to start annoying me.



The "Doomsday Comet" of 1996
Beginning in 1996 minor forms of comet hysteria reared their
ugly head for the first time since 1910. With the discovery of comet
Hyakutake and the realization that it would pass close to Earth, some
supermarket tabloids reported the comet was actually going to hit
Earth--totally ignoring the predictions of astronomers. The due date came
and went without a hitch and there was no further discussion.
Interestingly, one supermarket tabloid, the Weekly World News,
published an article on 1996 February 13 that stated the Hubble Space
Telescope had found a "doomsday comet." The article said "the famed
astronomer Dr. Robert Cremson" had found the comet while examining Hubble
images. He said it was the size of Europe and would hit Earth on April 7.
First of all, although comets have been photographed by Hubble, no comet
has ever been discovered by Hubble. Second, no one by the name of "Robert
Cremson" appears in any of the records indicating use of the Hubble Space
Telescope. Nor does this name show up in internet searches with respect to
astronomy. Interestingly, the Weekly World News refers to this person as
"Dr. Crenshaw" around the middle of the same article. Just for the record
no "Robert Crenshaw" shows up in Hubble records or in searches dealing
with astronomy. Anyway, the two billion people that were expected to die
in the impact are still alive and well.



The "Doomsday Comet" of 1997
Although the year 2000 was still three years away, comet
Hale-Bopp caused a more significant form of comet hysteria in 1997. This
comet was one of the largest comets ever seen and there were doomsayers
who took this as something very significant. There were predictions that
the comet would bring the end of the world on April 1, which was the date
the comet would be closest to Earth. Although this mention of a "close
approach" perked up the ears of the doomsayers, the reality of this was
that the comet was over 120 million miles away--further from us than the
sun. There was no chance that any particle of this comet was going to
reach Earth. Subsequently, there was no end to the world--once again.
Sadly, there is another aspect to Hale-Bopp's appearance which
contributed to the ritual suicide of 39 members of a religious cult on
March 26, 1997. An amateur astronomer had taken a photo of the comet
during November of 1996 that he claimed showed a UFO following the comet.
The "UFO" was actually a star that was present on every photo ever taken
of that region. Unfortunately, the mere mention of "UFO" got a lot of
people excited and the amateur astronomer became a celibrity on radio and
television programs that promoted such things. From this came more
misidentified images of the comet and its "UFO", with the "UFO" typically
being a misidentified star or a photo defect. The religious cult believed
the "UFO" was a spaceship which was coming to take their spirits away.
Suicide was the only way to release their spirits in time.
So, two bright comets, two predictions of doom for our world,
and life still continued as normal. In some ways, the doomsayers of 1996
and 1997 were simply carrying out the same tradition as the people of
ancient and medieval times. Bright comets capture the imagination.
Although comet Hyakutake and Hale-Bopp both reached similar brightnesses,
they did so for different reasons. Hyakutake became bright because it
passed only ten million miles from Earth, the 33rd closest approach of any
comet in history. Had it passed at a distance more typical of comets it
would hardly have been noticed. Comet Hale-Bopp became bright because it
was huge, certainly among the largest comets ever seen. It remained
visible to the naked-eye for nearly a year and a half--nearly twice the
previous record. If this comet had passed as close to Earth as comet
Hyakutake did its brightness would have approached that of the full moon!
Bright comets are generally a once-in-a-decade event and with
two bright comets having passed, you would think comet hysteria would be
an impossibility until after the millennium. But no. Nostradamus
prophesied a comet would herald the mass desctruction around the time of
the new millennium, so the doomsayers needed a comet. During May of 1998
they got another chance to frighten the gullible.



The "Doomsday Comet" of 1998
Comet SOHO (official designation C/1998 J1) was discovered on
May 3, 1998 by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). This
"observatory" is a satellite that orbits the sun just a few million miles
from Earth where it continually monitors the sun. On the date of the
discovery the comet was barely within the image of a wide-field camera.
During the next couple of days it steadily stayed near the northern edge
of that camera's field until it finally left. Rough orbits indicated the
comet would probably be a bright object for observers in the Southern
Hemisphere. It was finally spotted by observers on May 19 after it had
sufficiently moved out of twilight. The comet was not as bright as
Hyakutake and Hale-Bopp, but it was visible to the naked eye for a couple
of weeks.
This comet became interesting to the doomsayers through the
use of conspiracy rumors. An internet group calling themselves "The
Millennium Group" was the biggest of the conspiracy sites. Through a
misunderstanding of cometary astronomy they actually claimed the comet was
bigger than comet Hale-Bopp--a statement that was far from the truth. In
reality the comet's maximum brightness never reached the same level as
Hale-Bopp and it was as bright as it was because it passed rather close to
the sun. It was far below the maximum brightness of Hyakutake and
Hale-Bopp by the time it had emerged from twilight. Another stir was
caused by a misunderstanding of the discovery images. These images showed
the comet near the top of the field, the sun in the center, and a
"mysterious Saturn-shaped" object just to the left of the sun. One WWW
site actually magnified the object and claimed it was a giant spaceship.
In reality, the object was Mars, which was then on the far-side of its
orbit on the other side of the sun. The "Saturn" shape was simply an
artifact produced by SOHO's electronic camera when it images a bright
object. Comet SOHO came and went. Again, there was no disaster.



The "Doomsday Comet" of 1999
The year 1999 was a big year for the doomsayers. It was the
last year before the beginning of the new millennium (if you are one of
those who believed it began in 2000 and not 2001). Further
reinterpretations of Nostradamus by various individuals indicated this was
the year for mass destruction. No bright comets were predicted; however,
as 30 or 40 comets are discovered each year, the "doomsday comet" had to
be out there somewhere. Right?
On the night of April 16, 1999, Steven Lee of Australia found a
small comet. Calculations revealed the comet would pass closest to the sun
on July 11, so that the comet would brighten. Its closest approach to
Earth would occur in May at a distance of about 67 million
miles--relatively typical for the brighter comets. Somewhat rare, however,
was a second close approach on September 29, at the greater distance of
about 77 million miles. Sadly, after having naked-eye comets in 1996,
1997, and 1998, comet Lee was too small and too far away for it to become
a naked-eye object. However, a potential millennium disaster was at stake,
as well as the prophecy of Nostradamus.
Enter "The Millennium Group" once again! This time they
published a rather wild scenario on their web site that indicated comet
Lee could still hit Earth. They claimed that, while the comet was behind
the sun during July, it was possible for a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) to
hit the comet and divert pieces to a collision course with Earth. First of
all, CME's can not be predicted. Second, if a CME did occur, it is
unlikely for it to reach comet Lee's closest distance from the sun of 66
million miles with enough force to blow the comet to pieces. Third, comets
have been observed to split in the past and the pieces generally stay
close to the comet because of something simple called momentum. If a CME
did hit the comet with a force great enough to split it, the pieces could
not be diverted enough to hit Earth. At best they would drift a few
thousand miles from the comet, not 77 million miles.
Comet Lee was also the focus of Nostradamus scholars, who
claimed the comet contained a "hidden cometary, asteroid, or meteor
fragment in its tail." They said Nostradamus indicated when the comet
would hit Earth, but the various sites tended to disagree in their
interpretation. Some tried to be smart about the whole thing by stating
Nostradamus' indication of the 7th month of the disaster was ambiguous
because no one knew which calendar he was using. So, depending on this
interpretation, some sites said July, some said September, and some
admitted they were unsure and said July or September. Interestingly, a
couple of sites apparently copied from the other sites and just blatantly
said the comet would strike sometime between July and September. By the
end of September there was no sign of a collision. Comet Lee was still
exactly where it was supposed to be in the sky and it was then moving away
from both the sun and Earth.
Interestingly, the Associated Press distributed an article with
a dateline of August 18 that said a 47-year-old man who worked on space
shuttle data processing was found in a cave in southeastern Ohio on August
10. Also located within the cave was camping equipment and food. The man
told authorities that a meteor was going to hit in the Atlantic Ocean
causing a 200 foot tidal wave that would wipe out the east coast. The man
was kept in jail overnight and was then sent on his way.



Another Threat in 1999
But the millennium was not over and neither was the task of the
doomsayers. Richard Hoagland and Art Bell, each of whom makes a living by
keeping the rumors of UFOs and conspiracies alive, both claimed film
footage of the August 11 solar eclipse over Europe showed two unknown
objects near the sun. Their "analysis" of these objects indicated they
were quite close to the orbit of the Taurid meteor stream. So close, in
fact, that Hoagland suggested they were probably part of the stream and of
a size that could be disasterous for our planet.
There was one major problem with their scenario. Although some
objects do become visible during total solar eclipses (stars and planets,
for instance), it still takes a fairly bright object to be seen at this
time. In addition, an object sitting in the Taurid meteor stream at the
position indicated on that date would have been located about 120 million
miles from Earth. So, if Hoagland and Bell were reporting that objects
dangerous to our planet were seen during the August 11 eclipse, how did
these objects avoid detection in the past as they moved through the night
sky? There is definitely one large object that is moving in the Taurid
stream orbit and that is the periodic comet Encke, which is believed to be
the parent of the Taurids. Discovered back in 1786, this comet circles the
sun once every 3.3 years. It has on several occasions become visible to
the naked eye, but never at a distance of 120 million miles from our
planet. So, the Hoagland/Bell objects must be larger and brighter than
Encke! If these objects were in the Taurid orbit they would move through
the inner solar system in a fashion quite similar to that of comet Encke;
therefore, they would have the potential of becoming incredibly bright and
would have easily been detected in the past.
Interestingly, of the thousands of images and video footage
shot during the eclipse, nothing else showed anything unusual. Thus, it
seems probable that these "doomsday" objects were probably just specks of
dust on someone's lens.



"Doomsday Comet" of 2000
So, with the new millennium beginning on January 1, 2000, would
the appearance of a comet in 2000 be fair game for the doomsayers? After
1999 passed without a hitch, you would think many of these people would be
out of a job. Some of the doomsayers have made a good living taking
advantage of others and this whole millennium thing worked out quite well
for them. They were published in magazines, appeared on talk shows, and
even written books. But, these doomsayers tend to be pretty bright people
and it did not take long for them to realize what scientists have been
trying to tell everyone for several years--the new millennium would not
begin until January 1, 2001. Why? Well, there was no year zero and since
each millennium has a duration of 1000 years, then the first millennium
ran from the year 1 through the year 1000, and the second millennium
logically runs from 1001 through 2000. The third millennium would not
begin until 2001. Therefore, the doomsayers had another year to frighten
people!
So would the tabloids, radio programs, and internet sites that
breed the conspiracy theories and doomsday predictions have a comet to
scare people with in the year 2000? Well, as 2000 began there was the
potential for two barely naked-eye comets during the last half of the
year. But the doomsayers, were getting smart. Afterall, once these comets
were gone, the potential fear would subside. What they came up with was a
wild theory. The small, relatively obscure comet West-Kohoutek-Ikemura,
which makes one revolution around the sun every 6.4 years, was going to
pass close to Mars sometime during late May or early June of 2000. Their
"computations" indicated the close approach would be on the order of only
40,000 miles, which they said was close enough for the comet to either be
pulled into Mars, resulting in a catastrophic blast of "millions of tons
of material" from Mars, or to yank one or both moons of Mars out of orbit.
They continued by noting that either the material or the moons would be
put on a collision course with Earth.
In a day when astronomers can pinpoint the return of a
well-known periodic comet to within a few minutes or hours, how could a
group of "scientists" making up The Millennium Group not be able to
pinpoint a potential collision of a comet with a planet? How did
well-known astronomers predict the close approach of the comet with Mars?

a.. Kenji Muraoka (Japan) indicated the closest approach occurred
on June 5, with the minimum distance of 0.04215 AU, which is equal to
3,914,000 miles or 6,303,000 kilometers.
b.. Kazuo Kinoshita (Japan) indicated the close approach would
occur on June 5, with the minimum distance of 0.0425 AU, which is equal to
3,946,890 miles or 6,355,700 kilometers.
c.. Patrick Rocher (France) indicated the smallest distance between
the comet and Mars will occur on June 5, with the minimum distance of
0.04251 AU, which is equal to 3,948,000 miles or 6,357,000 kilometers.
Thus, three well-known astronomers respected for the accuracy
of their orbital computations had already provided similar orbits
indicating a close approach slightly greater than 3.9 million miles (6.3
million kilometers). Although this comet had been bright enough for large
amateur telescopes to see in the past, the return in 2000 was not
observable as the comet was pretty much on the other side of the sun from
Earth when at its brightest. By the time the comet was far enough from the
sun to be in range of large telescopes it was too faint to be detected.
Therefore, this was a clever idea on the part of The Millennium Group as
the fear just kept going. Of course no pieces ever hit Earth. It is sad
that people seem to have short memories and were believing this internet
group once again. There was no chance of a collision. There was no chance
of pieces of Mars hitting us. Just a close approach of a comet and Mars.

Will there be a Doomsday Comet in the future?

Possibly. Since the beginning of the 1980s scientists have continued
to uncover evidence that Earth and especially life have been reshaped by
impacts of comets and asteroids in the past. That is one of the reasons
why several telescopes are now dedicated to finding potentially hazardous
objects moving through our solar system. If we can find these objects far
enough ahead of time, maybe we can alter their courses to prevent us from
following the destiny of the dinosaurs.


Conclusion

During the last few centuries astronomers have managed to lift the
cloak of mystery surrounding comets. We now know what they are, how they
move, and where they come from. Although there is evidence that a comet
hits Earth every few million years or so, there is a growing number of
scientists that also believe comets played a major role in the early
development of life on our planet. It would seem that the numerous early
collisions of comets with a very young Earth probably provided most of the
water now present on our planet--water, of course, being perhaps the
single most important ingredient for sustaining life.

Comets are just another of nature's spectacles. Like the beauty of a
sunset or a rainbow. All are unexpected, but none should be feared. Our
world and our universe are filled with numerous mysteries just waiting to
be solved. Fear will not enable us to learn about them, but calmly
observing and studying them will.


http://cometography.com/hysteria.html