http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,2212071,00.html
Decision time for US over Iran threat
UN nuclear report heightens tension
Julian Borger, diplomatic editor
Friday November 16, 2007
The Guardian
A construction worker assembles part of Iran's nuclear power plant in
the southern port of Bushehr. Photograph: Mehr News Agency/EPA
Iran has installed 3,000 centrifuges for enriching uranium - enough to
begin industrial-scale production of nuclear fuel and build a warhead
within a year, the UN's nuclear watchdog reported last night.
The report by Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), will intensify US and European pressure
for tighter sanctions and increase speculation of a potential military
conflict.
The installation of 3,000 fully-functioning centrifuges at Iran's
enrichment plant at Natanz is a "red line" drawn by the US across
which Washington had said it would not let Iran pass. When spinning at
full speed they are capable of producing sufficient weapons-grade
uranium (enriched to over 90% purity) for a nuclear weapon within a
year.
The IAEA says the uranium being produced is only fuel grade (enriched
to 4%) but the confirmation that Iran has reached the 3,000 centrifuge
benchmark brings closer a moment of truth for the Bush administration,
when it will have to choose between taking military action or
abandoning its red line, and accepting Iran's technical mastery of
uranium enrichment.
US generals are reported to have warned the White House that military
action would trigger a devastating Iranian backlash in the Middle East
and beyond.
Russian officials yesterday called for patience, insisting Iran could
still clinch a deal with the international community in the next few
weeks. They pointed to other parts of the IAEA report showing Tehran
had been cooperating with the agency's inspectors on other nuclear
issues.
"We are most concerned to prevent Iran being cornered so that they
walk out of the Non Proliferation Treaty, and break relations with the
IAEA," one Russian source said. He said Chinese officials were
stepping up diplomatic pressure on Iran, with Moscow, to avert a
collision.
"They are on high alert that something has to be done quickly," the
source said.
The Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, also seized on positive
parts of the IAEA report, noting increased Iranian cooperation with
inspectors, as vindication for Tehran. He said: "The world will see
that the Iranian nation has been right and the resistance of our
nation has been correct."
Last night, a Foreign Office spokesman said: "If Iran wants to restore
trust in its programme it must come clean on all outstanding issues
without delay."
Gordon Brown has called for increased pressure on Tehran, including an
international ban on investment in the Iranian oil and gas industry.
But UK officials are nervous about pressure from the US vice president
***** Cheney and other hawks for military action against Iran before a
new administration takes office in January 2009. They emphasise that
Iranian scientists could be months if not years away from getting the
3,000 centrifuges to function properly, at top speed, for a sustained
period, and insist there is no imminent pressure for military
intervention.
However, they also point out that Israel's red lines for military
action are unclear.
Against the fraught backdrop, a meeting of senior officials from the
UN security council's five permanent members and Germany to decide on
sanctions, planned for Monday, was put off after the Chinese
delegation said it could not attend.
The critical meeting has been pushed back to later this month, giving
time for the six-nation group's negotiator, Javier Solana, the EU
foreign policy chief, to hold last-ditch talks with Iranian officials.
The ElBaradei report gave a mixed account of Iran's cooperation with
inspectors looking into Tehran's nuclear activity in the two decades
before it declared its enrichment programme. "Iran has provided
sufficient access to individuals and has responded in a timely manner
to questions," it said, but added that "cooperation has been reactive
rather than proactive".
David Albright, a former UN inspector and now an independent nuclear
expert in Washington, said ElBaradei appeared to be trying to put "a
happy face" on a worsening situation. "The main issue is that Iran now
has 3,000 centrifuges," he said. "The report doesn't even judge the
quality of the information being offered, but it's clear it is giving
minimal answers."
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HOOROO
UNCLE WALLY
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