This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
------=_NextPart_000_00CD_01C5CEB6.2A9143A0
Content-Type: text/plain;
format=flowed;
charset="iso-8859-1";
reply-type=original
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
End of the World? Not Likely, Scientists Say
By Ker Than
LiveScience Staff Writer
posted: 10 October 2005
03:36 pm ET
The recent spate of natural disasters affecting the globe "might be"
signs that the Biblical apocalypse is near, says Christian televangelist
Pat Robertson.
On an Oct. 9 episode of CNN's "Late Edition," the preacher noted
that hurricanes such as Katrina and Rita and earthquakes like the ones
that struck Pakistan this past weekend and the tsunami-causing one that
struck Indonesia last December are hitting with "amazing regularity."
Scientists see Earth doing what she always does, however.
Latter days?
"If you read back in the Bible, [Paul] said that in the latter days
before the [apocalypse] that the Earth would be caught up in what he
called the birth pangs of a new order," Robertson said. "Well, what was
called the blessed hope of the Bible is that one day Jesus Christ would
come back again, start a whole new era, that this world order that we know
it would change into something that would be wonderful that we'd call the
millennium."
But before there can be heaven on Earth, there will be some
"difficult days" which will be like "what a woman goes through in labor
just before she brings forth a child," Robertson said.
Seth Stein, a seismologists at Northwestern University's Weinberg
College of Arts and Sciences, thinks everything is as it should be, at
least as far as earthquakes go.
"I don't think there's any reason to believe the frequency of large
earthquakes has changed over the past million years," Stein told
LiveScience. "That's contrary to everything we know about how the Earth
works."
On average, there is at least one magnitude 8 earthquake every year
and about 17 magnitude 7's, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The
Pakistan quake measured 7.6.
Location, location, location
Of course, some places on Earth are more prone to earthquakes than
others.
Alaska is one of the most seismically active regions in the world -
experiencing a major earthquake (magnitude 7.0 or greater) almost every
year, whereas no earthquakes of more than moderate intensity have occurred
within the borders of North Dakota during historical times.
"The largest earthquakes are on plate boundaries, where two plates
are interacting, and the largest of these earthquakes occur on subduction
zone boundaries, where you have one plate going under another plate,"
Stein explained.
Both the Sumatra earthquake and the Pakistan earthquake struck on
subduction zone boundaries. The first happened as the India plate slid
under the Burma plate and the latter one was the result of the India plate
sliding under the Eurasia one.
Hurricanes are increasing
Concerning hurricanes, Robertson may be correct in observing that
they're occurring more frequently than in the past.
According to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR),
the period between 1970 to 1994 saw on average about 9 tropical storms in
the Atlantic basin, with about 7 of those turning into hurricanes. From
1995 to 2004, that number jumped to 14 tropical storms and12 hurricanes.
2005 is likely to surpass them all, said Kevin Trenberth, the head
of climate analysis at NCAR.
"By several measures, this will end up being the most active storm
season on record, it's not just number but also how intense they are,"
Trenberth said.
But scientists aren't willing to blame the apocalypse just yet. A
decades-long cycle of busy and the quiet periods is evident in records
dating back to the mid-1800s. This is not the first stretch of highly
active hurricane seasons. It is just the first time so many people have
lived near the coast during such an active period.
Natural cycles
Trenberth cites a number of factors responsible for the trend toward
stronger and more frequent hurricanes being observed. These include
natural variability in hurricane frequency and intensity, global warming,
and El Niño, a warming of the waters in the off the eastern coast of South
America that occurs naturally every 4-12 years.
"Following an El Niño there tends to be warmer sea temperatures,"
Trenberth said. "It changes the atmospheric circulation to create extra
warming of the Atlantic [Ocean]."
As the surface of the Atlantic Ocean warms, more water evaporates
into the atmosphere, which allows for stronger tropical storms. Global
warming is believed to contribute to hurricanes in the same way, by
warming up the ocean surface and putting more moisture into the
atmosphere.
About Robertson's comments, Trenberth said that he "thinks its part
of the general [socio-political] climate that seems to exists in the
country today, fostered partly perhaps by this administration and their
lack of credence to science."
Earthquake Frequency
Average number each year globally:
Type
Magnitude
Average
Great
8+
1 ¹
Major
7 - 7.9
17 ²
Strong
6 - 6.9
134 ²
Moderate
5 - 5.9
1319 ²
Light
4 - 4.9
13,000*
Minor
3 - 3.9
130,000*
Very Minor
2 - 2.9
1,300,000*
¹ Based on observations since 1900
² Based on observations since 1990
* Estimated
LiveScience / SOURCE: USGS
http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/051010_end_of_world.html
------=_NextPart_000_00CD_01C5CEB6.2A9143A0
Content-Type: image/gif;
name="transpacer.gif"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64
Content-Location: http://images.livescience.com/template_images/livescience/transpacer.gif
R0lGODlhAQABAJH/AP///wAAAMDAwAAAACH5BAEAAAIALAAAAAABAAEAAAICVAEAOw==
------=_NextPart_000_00CD_01C5CEB6.2A9143A0--
.
|
|
|
Related Articles |
|
|
