Geopolitical Diary: A Push for Shiite Rule in Bahrain?
May 01, 2006 04 11 GMT
Seven vehicles belonging to construction companies were set ablaze on
Sunday on the outskirts of Manama, in what Bahraini authorities are
describing as the largest arson attack in the Persian Gulf state. The
incident follows a string of events that are somewhat unusual for
Bahrain: On Saturday, for example, masked youths in Karanah (a
predominantly Shiite district of Manama) hurled a Molotov cocktail at a
vehicle in which two security officers were riding, wounding them. Riot
police, aided by dogs, scoured the area for the assailants, who were
believed to number between five and eight.
Other incidents included a fake bomb threat that led to the evacuation
of a hotel and several other buildings April 28. There also was a scare
earlier in the week, on April 26, when a loud sound bomb was detonated
in Manama, and police defused a similar device found near a popular
hotel in the Hoora tourist district. On the same day, a police vehicle
was rushed at a red light in Sitra -- the same district where the
construction vehicles were set on fire -- and struck by a Molotov
cocktail. Two policemen were injured in that incident.
On the whole, it would appear that the mostly Shiite opponents of
Bahrain's Sunni monarchy have chosen their moment -- at a time when
sectarian tensions are on the rise in the Gulf region -- to make a push
for change. The Shiite majority has done so before: They waged a
campaign seeking their political rights during the 1990s. However, the
unrest was calmed after Sheikh Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, who became
king in March 1999, initiated major political reforms designed to
transform the state from a hereditary emirate to a constitutional
monarchy.
Tensions have been on the uptick again, however, since December 2005 --
when a leading Shiite cleric, Ayatollah Sheikh Mohammed Sanad, returned
to Bahrain from Iran.
But why the sudden outburst of violence now?
The first and most obvious answer, as is so often the case, is coming
elections. Voters will choose representatives for the country's five
municipal councils in May, and for the 40 seats in the lower house of
parliament in October. A less obvious possibility, however, is that the
violence is linked to Iran, which has been balancing its public threats
of developing nuclear weapons against the need to assure itself of
power or influence over the developing government next door in Iraq.
With the situation between Tehran and Washington now at a critical
juncture, Iran likely would welcome an opportunity to tip the scales in
its favor. Instigating violence in another Shiite state like Bahrain --
which, not incidentally, is home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet -- would
certainly give the impression that Tehran can create problems for the
United State in critical locales if it so desires.
Conversely, Bahrain's Shia, who constitute some 70 percent of its
population, would like to capitalize on the rise of Shiite influence in
Iraq and enhance their own fortunes.
Clearly, the apparent decline in security in Bahrain has numerous
implications for the Gulf region and beyond. For instance, the rise of
the Shia in Bahrain would embolden their religious brethren in
neighboring Kuwait and Saudi Arabia -- a trend that in turn would
further enflame Sunni-Shiite tensions in the Middle East. There also is
the possibility that if the situation in Bahrain worsens, oil prices --
now hovering at $75 a barrel -- could climb even higher.
The government in Manama recognizes the risks -- which likely is why
the Bahraini ambassador to the United States, Naser M. Y. al-Belooshi,
said Sunday that his country looks forward to establishing diplomatic
ties with Israel as soon as a final agreement has been inked between
the Israelis and the Palestinians. Speaking to a private reception
organized by the American Jewish Committee, al-Belooshi said Israel and
Bahrain share growing concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions and Hamas'
control of the Palestinian government. He added: "We feel very unsafe.
We are not sure that something like Chernobyl will not happen again. We
would like to see a more united front against Iran. The United States
is leading the charge, and other countries should follow."
An alignment with Israel against Iran would be a risky move for
Bahrain, where the Shiite majority appears to be trying to take
advantage of two trends -- the growth of Shiite power in the Gulf
region and the push for democracy in the Middle East -- to gain greater
political control.
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