Geopolitical Diary: Sunday, Dec. 4, 2005
December 05, 2005 04 03 GMT
Israel on Sunday criticized Russian plans to sell a sophisticated air
defense system to Iran -- the Tor M-1 mobile missile system, or SA-15
Gauntlet, as it is known in the West -- saying it "serves only the
interests of the most negative elements in the region." The weapons
system reportedly can shoot down ballistic missiles as well as
aircraft.
The equipment being sold is for defensive purposes only, but the timing
is interesting on two levels: First, it points up Russia's desire and
ability to reassert influence far from home, and second, it will
continue to fuel the tensions that have been growing in recent days
between Israel and Iran.
Moscow has been using sales of military and defensive technologies as a
way of securing allies and exerting influence abroad since the Soviet
days, and the sale at this juncture to Iran is an indication that
Russia's evolving foreign policy is taking on a certain shape. Having
focused on developing allies in the West for much of the past decade,
the Kremlin recently has shifted its attention southward and eastward.
Some of this shift stems from the encroachment of U.S. influence in
Russia's historical spheres of influence, with places like Ukraine and
Georgia developing closer ties with Washington and distancing
themselves from Moscow.
By strengthening its ties to a country like Iran, however, Russia is
able to simultaneously project its own power and rile up the West. Thus
far, Russia has played all sides in the debate concerning Iran's
nuclear program -- saying it wants an amicable resolution between Iran
and the West, but simultaneously supplying Tehran with nuclear
material, aiding its efforts to build a nuclear reactor and now,
selling the Iranians a missile defense system. Where the United States
is concerned, Moscow has chosen its moment well: The Bush
administration's decision-making ability continues to be sapped by
other issues, such as the situation in Iraq and domestic affairs --
leaving many countries, Russia and Iran included, rather freer than
they normally would be to act in their own interests.
For Iran, the defense system purchase -- which is worth about $700
million -- is a way of strengthening the country against external
pressure and, of course, air attacks. Significantly, some of the
equipment could be positioned to defend the country's highly
controversial nuclear facilities.
Israel, certainly, is not taking anything for granted. In addition to
the nuclear issue, Iran is developing its own Shahab-3 ballistic
missile, which reportedly would be capable of striking Israel, and
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has (by now famously) stated that in his
view, Israel should be "wiped off the map." Little wonder, then, that
as the Russians were announcing their sale of the Tor air defense
system to Iran, the Israelis were testing (successfully) their own
Arrow defense system against a mock Shahab.
The actual statements from Israeli leaders on the issue, however, have
been rather less clear. Some have insinuated that the emergence of a
nuclear-armed Iran is only a matter of time and a coming reality that
Israel will simply have to live with. But Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
has said that possibility is unacceptable to Israel -- which could
perhaps be a veiled threat that the Jewish state would consider
developing nuclear capabilities of its own. On Sunday, Israel's
military chief joined the list of Israeli officials expressing
pessimism that diplomacy would be enough to keep Iran from developing
nuclear weapons.
Be that as it may, the rhetoric is flying and the tensions in the
region growing -- with Russia capable, and apparently willing, to fan
them higher as its interests dictate.
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