| Topic: |
Science > Prophecies-Of-Nostradamus |
| User: |
"The Court Fool" |
| Date: |
18 Apr 2005 10:31:05 AM |
| Object: |
Indonesia: Analyst says stakes are high in millitary standoff with Malaysia |
INDONESIA: ANALYST SAYS STAKES ARE HIGH IN MALAYSIA STANDOFF
Jakarta, 18 April
(AKI) - Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Malaysian
Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi have in recent days been actively
trying to defuse the tension which peaked after warships from the two
neighbours collided in the disputed oil rich Ambalat sea block on 9
April. Dr. Rob Goodfellow, an Australian-based expert in Indonesia,
told Adnkronos International (AKI) that Jakarta risks losing much more
than it has put on the bargaining table should war break out with
neighbouring Malaysia over the disputed sea area. Warships had come
into close contact several times this year before the two governments
agreed to negotiate to end the dispute last month.
Goodfellow explained how 'economical survival' is at the core of
this 'fight' that neither country can afford to lose. He also
highlighted how the 'real' - albeit slim - possibility of an open
conflict could lead to the breakdown of Indonesia.
"Indonesia has only ten years of oil at the present rate of
production and cannot afford to lose this fight, but neither can
Malaysia. The national development stakes are high, very high for
Indonesia.
"Without seven percent growth, Indonesia cannot even begin to
accommodate new entrants to the job market, let alone continue to
modernize," said the academic, stressing that "oil is survival and
neither country is in the mood for compromising."
The dispute started on 16 February when Malaysia granted an oil
concession in the region to Anglo-Dutch firm Shell, angering Jakarta
which considers the sea-bed part of its territory. Since then, the two
countries have deployed warships and while diplomacy has gathered pace,
tension remains high and - according to Goodfellow - war is still a
possibility.
"A series of seemingly unrelated incidents could lead to the worst
possible outcome in this case," added Goodfellow, "a short, sharp,
bloody war, which Malaysia would probably win thanks to a modern,
highly disciplined, highly motivated, well-trained and very
well-equipped armed force."
Goodfellow mentioned that the Ambalat dispute could become a
'benchmark precedent' used by other countries with territorial
disputes in the region. He warned of catastrophic consequences for
Jakarta which could face internal and external threats to its national
integrity if the weakness of the Indonesian military were to be exposed
by Malaysia.
"The defeat would bolster the ongoing struggle for independence in
Aceh and Papua and fuel the latent separatist sentiment in West Java,
Manado, Maluku Islands Riau and possibly Bali," said Goodfellow, who
then moved on to analyse the potential consequences for Indonesia at an
international level.
"The Malaysians would then be tempted to take the rest of Kalimantan
(the Indonesian side of the island of Borneo). Singapore could be
tempted to take what they need from Riau Islands and Australia might
even be tempted to take 'responsibility' for the resource-rich
Papua," concluded Goodfellow who defined the international scenario
'far-fetched' but possible.
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| User: "" |
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| Title: Re: Indonesia: Analyst says stakes are high in millitary standoff with Malaysia |
18 Apr 2005 01:44:32 PM |
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These are the types of resource conflicts that we can expect will
become increasingly common over the next several years. It's a dispute
over oil, of course, oil that Indonesia's economy needs badly.
Oil is also at the root cause of the recent Sino-Japanese spat. Chavez
is buying missle from the North Koreans to protect his assets. Oil
assets, of course.
No conspiracies here, folks, this stuff is right out in the open. Too
bad the media (American media, at least) is so preoccupied with the
Michael Jackson trial that these things don't even get mention in
passing.
.
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| User: "The Court Fool" |
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| Title: Re: Indonesia: Analyst says stakes are high in millitary standoff with Malaysia |
19 Apr 2005 09:32:38 AM |
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wrote:
These are the types of resource conflicts that we can expect will
become increasingly common over the next several years. It's a
dispute
over oil, of course, oil that Indonesia's economy needs badly.
Oil is also at the root cause of the recent Sino-Japanese spat.
Chavez
is buying missle from the North Koreans to protect his assets. Oil
assets, of course.
No conspiracies here, folks, this stuff is right out in the open.
Too
bad the media (American media, at least) is so preoccupied with the
Michael Jackson trial that these things don't even get mention in
passing.
Thus are the fallabilities of the social systems commony referred to by
learned homosaphiens as MARKETS. Their ability to provide cohesive
stability only lasts until the desired exploitable resources that
sustain them become scarce. Then, they no longer become a of harmony,
but rather a source of dischord.
.
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| User: "The Court Fool" |
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| Title: Re: Indonesia: Analyst says stakes are high in millitary standoff with Malaysia |
19 Apr 2005 09:32:23 AM |
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wrote:
These are the types of resource conflicts that we can expect will
become increasingly common over the next several years. It's a
dispute
over oil, of course, oil that Indonesia's economy needs badly.
Oil is also at the root cause of the recent Sino-Japanese spat.
Chavez
is buying missle from the North Koreans to protect his assets. Oil
assets, of course.
No conspiracies here, folks, this stuff is right out in the open.
Too
bad the media (American media, at least) is so preoccupied with the
Michael Jackson trial that these things don't even get mention in
passing.
Thus are the fallibilities of the social systems commony referred to by
learned homosaphiens as MARKETS. Their ability to provide cohesive
stability only lasts until the desired exploitable resources that
sustain them become scarce. Then, they no longer become a of harmony,
but rather a source of dischord.
.
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| User: "The Court Fool" |
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| Title: Re: Indonesia: Analyst says stakes are high in millitary standoff with Malaysia |
19 Apr 2005 09:32:08 AM |
|
|
wrote:
These are the types of resource conflicts that we can expect will
become increasingly common over the next several years. It's a
dispute
over oil, of course, oil that Indonesia's economy needs badly.
Oil is also at the root cause of the recent Sino-Japanese spat.
Chavez
is buying missle from the North Koreans to protect his assets. Oil
assets, of course.
No conspiracies here, folks, this stuff is right out in the open.
Too
bad the media (American media, at least) is so preoccupied with the
Michael Jackson trial that these things don't even get mention in
passing.
Thus are the fallibilities of the social systems commony referred to by
learned homosaphiens as MARKETS. Their ability to provide cohesive
stability only lasts until the desired exploitable resources that
sustain them become scarce. Then, they no longer become a of harmony,
but rather dischord.
.
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