Sunday, February 4, 2007 - Page updated at 12:00 AM
Intelligence officials play down Iran's role in Iraq
By Jonathan S. Landay and Warren P. Strobel
McClatchy Newspapers
WASHINGTON - The Bush administration is escalating its confrontation with
Iran, sending an additional aircraft carrier and minesweepers into the
Persian Gulf as it accuses the Islamic regime of arming Shiite Muslim
militias in Iraq for attacks on U.S. troops.
A new U.S. intelligence estimate Friday, however, concluded that Iranian
and other outside meddling is "not likely" a major cause of the bloodshed
in Iraq, and a new McClatchy analysis of U.S. casualties in Iraq found
that Sunni Muslim insurgents, not Iranian-backed Shiites, have mounted
most - but not all - attacks on American forces.
The Bush administration, which made exaggerated or incorrect claims about
Iraq's weapons programs and ties to al-Qaida to justify its 2003 invasion
of Iraq, hasn't provided evidence to back up its charges.
Intelligence officials said the Mahdi Army militia of anti-American Shiite
cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has used weapons from Iran to kill Americans in
Iraq. But Secretary of Defense Robert Gates confirmed Friday that the
administration isn't sure whether Iran's leaders sanctioned the arms
shipments to Iraq or whether rogue elements are behind them.
"I don't think that we know the answer to that question," Gates said.
Some experts, citing President Bush's order to send more U.S. air and
naval forces to the Persian Gulf, worry that he is exaggerating the
Iranian role to build a case for attacking Iran's nuclear facilities.
"It would be interesting to know why the [administration's] statements
have gotten more bellicose. It would be interesting to know why there are
aircraft carriers in the region," former Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright told a Senate committee Wednesday. "We have learned the hard way
what happens when this administration decided on a policy without putting
its assumptions to the test of legislative scrutiny and informed debate."
Bush and his top aides deny that they've been exaggerating Iran's role in
Iraq, saying it should be seen in the context of Iran's efforts to
dominate the oil-rich Persian Gulf, strengthen Hamas and other Palestinian
terrorist groups and bolster Shiite political power in Lebanon and other
Arab countries with large Shiite populations.
They also say the United States has no intention of attacking Iran.
"The president has made clear, the secretary of state has made clear, I've
made clear ... we are not planning for a war with Iran," Gates said. "What
we are trying to do is, in Iraq, counter what the Iranians are doing to
our soldiers, their involvement and activities."
The U.S. government's data, however, show that Sunni insurgents, not
Shiite militias supported by Iran, have been responsible for most American
combat deaths.
According to data provided by Iraq Coalition Casualty Count, an Internet
site that closely tracks military and civilian deaths in Iraq, more than
40 percent of U.S. combat deaths in 2006 occurred in the Sunni heartland
of Anbar province, where Iran has virtually no influence.
The proportion of U.S. casualties that occurred in Anbar - 44 percent -
was higher than it was in 2005, when it was about 36 percent.
"The vast majority of Americans who are being killed are still being
killed by IEDs [improvised explosive devices] set by Sunnis," said Kenneth
Pollack, a former CIA and White House expert on Persian Gulf affairs.
Pollack, now at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, questioned the
White House's rhetorical campaign and military movements aimed at Iran.
"The evidence that I am seeing does not seem to support the level of
rhetoric, let alone the military actions" the administration is taking,
Pollack said.
Many experts worry that escalating tensions could increase the danger that
a misstep by either side could lead to open conflict in the Persian Gulf,
which could send oil prices soaring, strengthen both Shiite and Sunni
extremists and threaten pro-Western Arab nations.
"It's a high-risk strategy ... and does have the possibility of actually
making things worse," warned Gary Sick of Columbia University, a leading
expert on Iran who served in the White House under President Carter.
Nevertheless, the Bush administration is under growing pressure from
Israel and Arab nations to counter Iran's growing assertiveness.
"The administration is between a rock and a hard place here," said a
senior U.S. intelligence official, speaking anonymously because the
intelligence on Iran is highly classified. "On one hand, they have to
convince people here and abroad that this time they're telling the truth
and they've got the goods, which won't be easy. And a lot of our friends
in the region, like the Saudis and the Israelis and the Lebanese, are
nervous and want us to get tough with Iran."
Challenged by Iran to make its evidence public, the administration has
postponed briefings on what one U.S. official called "the Iran dossier."
On Friday, the National Intelligence Council, comprising the top U.S.
intelligence analysts, released an assessment of the Iraq crisis that said
"lethal support" from Iran to Shiite militants "clearly intensifies" the
conflict, but isn't a significant factor.
"Iraq's neighbors influence, and are influenced by, events in Iraq, but
the involvement of these outside actors is not likely to be a major driver
of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining"
sectarian strife, said the analysis, known as a National Intelligence
Estimate.
Intelligence officials said they have strong evidence of Iranian support
for Iraqi Shiite militias, especially the Mahdi Army. The question is how
great a role they're playing in the conflict.
"No one sees a problem," said a U.S. defense official who requested
anonymity because the issue involves top-secret intelligence.
The weapons include shaped-charge explosives capable of breaching advanced
armor, armor-piercing rocket-propelled grenades and Katyusha rockets, the
senior U.S. intelligence official said.
But Iran's motives remain murky, he said.
"Are the Iranians mucking around in Iraq? You bet," he said. "Do they want
to make sure they've got a government in Baghdad that's simpatico instead
of another war? Yep. But are they fighting a secret war against the
Americans in Iraq? We have no evidence of that."
The fact that some Iranian weaponry is flowing to the Mahdi Army, and that
Mahdi Army fighters have attacked Americans, doesn't prove that Iranians
are targeting Americans, said a second U.S. intelligence official, who
also agreed to speak only on condition of anonymity.
Moreover, a third intelligence official said, Iraq is awash in weapons
purchased by Saddam Hussein's regime and never secured by U.S. forces
after the 2003 invasion. Plenty of Iranian weapons also are "floating
around" because the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps created the militia
of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), and
forces loyal to the Dawa party of U.S.-backed Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri
al-Maliki, the official added.
Further compounding the problem, the three U.S. intelligence officials
said, is that the Bush administration supports not only Dawa's al-Maliki,
but also two major SCIRI leaders, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim and Abdul Adel
Mahdi, who are also in the government.
"So what do we do?" one of the officials said. "Accuse the Iranians of
supporting the same guys we support? That's awkward."
Copyright © The Seattle Times Company
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003555705_usiran04.html
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| User: "Perseid" |
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| Title: Re: Intelligence Officials Play Down Iran's Role in Iraq |
05 Feb 2007 04:19:55 AM |
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After Much Chewing of Cud and Cogitation, "Docrodile"
<swampthing@hellsbayou.net> Spat the Words
Sunday, February 4, 2007 - Page updated at 12:00 AM
Intelligence officials play down Iran's role in Iraq
By Jonathan S. Landay and Warren P. Strobel
McClatchy Newspapers
WASHINGTON - The Bush administration is escalating its confrontation with
Iran, sending an additional aircraft carrier and minesweepers into the
Persian Gulf as it accuses the Islamic regime of arming Shiite Muslim
militias in Iraq for attacks on U.S. troops.
Of course, this has been going on for what, 4 years ? Iran has
been putting weapons into Iraq for at least that long and Bush
did nothing as thousands were maimed and killed. Now that this
news might coincide with his plans for military agression, he
starts accusing the Iranians of 'meddling'... ramping up the
rhetoric... 'you gotta catapult the propaganda'.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003555705_usiran04.html
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