Poll: Iranians want regime change
74% think U.S. presence increases chances for freedom
June 12, 2005
A scientific public opinion survey of Iranians shows most want regime
change in their country and 74 percent believe the presence of U.S.
troops in Iraq increases the chances they will be able to overthrow
their Shiite theocracy.
The survey, which was the first of its kind, found two-thirds of
Iranians believe that regime change in Iraq has been a positive for
both neighboring countries: with 66 percent believing that it served
Iran's national interests, while 65 percent believed the Iraqi people
will, in the long-run, be better off.
Commissioned by the Iran Institute for Democracy, the survey
discovered that 65 percent of Iranian adults consider fundamental
change in Iran's system of government, especially its Constitution, a
must to bring freedom and more opportunities to their homeland.
Validating reports of widespread discontent with the clerical regime,
three-fourths of Iranians, 73 percent, support the call for a national
referendum through which Iranians are given a chance to choose the
form of government of their choice.
"The people of Iran want change," said Jerome Corsi, author of "Atomic
Iran" and founder of the Iran Freedom Foundation. "We need to
encourage these yearnings for freedom and help the Iranian people
overthrow the mad mullahs and prevent this regime from producing
nuclear weapons, which will be a threat to the entire civilized
world."
Significantly, almost all Iranians reject their government's attempts
to keep exiled Iranians out of the political and economic equation of
Iran. Fully 84 percent say Iranians living abroad should have a role
in shaping the political and economic future of their homeland.
Regarding the forthcoming presidential elections, nearly four of every
five Iranians – 79 percent -- say the upcoming elections should not be
held unless they are free, fair and transparent.
While more than 70 percent of Iranians believe the world is closely
monitoring next Friday's election process, 57 percent of the
population would be inclined to support a boycott of the elections if
conditions for a free, fair and transparent election are not met.
Only 39 percent of adults were able to choose a candidate representing
their viewpoint, with Hashemi Rafsanjani leading with 32 percent among
those who could identify with a candidate.
Rafsanjani enjoys only 13 percent support among all Iranians,
including those who could not identify an acceptable candidate. That
said, when asked to make a prediction, 42 percent of all surveyed
predicted Rafsanjani would be declared the winner of elections,
indicating a perception of a predetermined conclusion.
On the nuclear issue, a solid majority of surveyed respondents inside
Iran – 60 percent -- believe the international community's worry about
the prospects of terrorists obtaining weapons of mass destruction is
real. Further, a plurality – 42 percent – says the Islamic Republic
gaining access to nuclear weapons would add to their anxiety,
discomfort and inability to sleep comfortably at night, while 37
percent say it would not burden their peace of mind.
Commissioned by the Iran Institute for Democracy, the survey was
conducted among 758 adults age 16 and over (the voting age in Iran),
from May 26 through June 4, 2005. Sample design, questionnaire design,
and data processing were conducted by the Tarrance Group. Random-digit
dialing was used to generate the sample, and interviews were conducted
via telephone from a call center in the U.S. using Farsi-speaking
interviewers. The margin of error associated with a sample of this
size of +/- 3.6 percent, at the 95 percent confidence level. The
average interview length was 24.6 minutes.
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