| Topic: |
Science > Prophecies-Of-Nostradamus |
| User: |
"Definitely a sick minority..." |
| Date: |
14 Mar 2006 09:34:09 PM |
| Object: |
Iraq: A Sunni Militia and Iraq's 'Lebanization' |
Iraq: A Sunni Militia and Iraq's 'Lebanization'
March 13, 2006 22 37 GMT
Summary
An Iraqi armed group calling itself the Anbar Revenge Brigade, which
allegedly receives government backing, said March 13 it has killed five
senior al Qaeda members. Though the idea of indigenous Sunni elements
turning against foreign jihadists in Iraq is nothing new, this group is
the first to claim it enjoys government support, indicating that Sunnis
engaged in the political process are now moving toward forming their
own government-sanctioned militia, like the Kurds and Shia. The
proliferation of militias in Iraq will only add to country's
instability, thus accelerating the "Lebanization" of Iraq.
Analysis
A message posted on an Islamist Web site March 13 by a group calling
itself the Anbar Revenge Brigade claims the group had killed four al
Qaeda leaders and a member of al Qaeda-linked insurgent group Ansar
al-Sunnah Army.
The claim follows a continued trend of indigenous Sunni elements taking
an active role in rooting out the foreign jihadist presence in Iraq.
What made the statement interesting, if authentic, is the group's claim
that it was created by tribal leaders with government backing to combat
al Qaeda in the Sunni-majority Anbar province in western Iraq. This
apparent formation of a Sunni counterpart to Iraq's Kurdish and Shiite
government-sanctioned militias reveals the "Lebanization" process
taking place in Iraq.
Sunni tribal leaders have increasingly angled for political power in
Baghdad by demonstrating their ability to put a lid on the jihadist
insurgency by depriving Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's militant group al Qaeda
in Iraq of a Sunni support network. In the past, isolated incidents of
Sunni tribal leaders capturing scores of al Qaeda militants have
revealed a growing rift between Sunni nationalist insurgents and
jihadists, but the militant Sunni outfits retained their primary role
as anti-U.S. occupation forces in addition to adopting an anti-jihadist
posture. By behaving like a militia run by Baghdad, this new group
could reflect the early stages of a Sunni militia buildup.
It comes as no surprise that the Sunnis are looking forward to a time
when insurgent groups eventually will have to coalesce into a
legitimate armed entity. Though possessing varying degrees of
legitimacy, both the Kurds and Shia have militias capable of acting
independently to safeguard their respective faction's interests.
Kurdish and Shiite paramilitaries operate on their own, and also as
part of Iraqi government security forces, affording them extensive
legitimacy. These militias, particularly the Shiite Badr Organization
and the Mehdi Army, the latter led by radical Shiite leader Muqtada
al-Sadr, are known to carry out the kidnapping, assassination and
torture of Sunnis. With Iranian backing, the Shia are nowhere near
willing to disband their militias, just as the Kurdish peshmerga
--which technically is not even considered a militia in the Iraqi
constitution -- will effectively resist any pressure to disarm. As
Sunnis are becoming more heavily integrated into the Iraqi political
process, the need for a government-sanctioned militia is rapidly
increasing. Such a militia would allow Sunnis to protect their
interests in the wake of Saddam Hussein's fall and the end of Sunni
domination of Iraq.
The threat of militia proliferation in Iraq only adds to the degree of
instability in the country. The dark cloud of civil war continues to
hover over Iraq, though there is no sign a downpour is imminent.
Outsiders simply have too many interests at stake to allow the country
to fall into civil war. Thus, while Saudi Arabia has considerable
tribal links and influence over the Sunni population and Egypt is
trying to gain influence in Iraq through the aegis of the Arab League,
Iran is working to build its influence through its Shiite connections
in Baghdad. The United States, which has an interest in all three
groups working together to form one cohesive nation, cannot afford to
be caught siding with any of Iraq's factions, by contrast.
And thus, Iraq begins to look a lot like Lebanon. Just as Lebanon is
divided among its Maronite Christian, Sunni and Shiite factions, the
fault lines among Iraq's Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni factions will be
inherently built into the emerging political system in the absence of a
dictatorial ruler. And just as Lebanon's territorial integrity has been
maintained in part by the external involvement from Syria and Israel,
Iraq will follow a similar course given Iranian, Turkish and Saudi
national interests in Iraq. Iraq's ethnic rifts will continually
surface, raising the specter of civil war -- and the growing presence
of militiamen will only exacerbate factional tensions pulling away at
central government control.
The combination of outside actors and prominent ethnic cleavages in a
country like Iraq forms the perfect recipe for perpetual instability,
even if it is largely contained. Add more armed groups to the picture,
and the future gets a lot more interesting.
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