The Court Fool wrote:
SUDDENLY, an abyss has opened up under Paul Martin's minority Liberal
government. Only a few weeks ago, Mr Martin's supporters were looking
forward with equanimity to the prospect of the prime minister calling
an election some time next year to restore their party to the
parliamentary majority it enjoyed for more than a decade until last
year. Now, Canada is contemplating the possibility of the
Conservative
opposition forcing a June poll and going on to form a minority
government. In due course, say some alarmed federalists, a new
attempt
by French-speaking Quebec to secede from Canada would follow.
The PQ are always promising a referendum, its the only thing they
really know how to do. Get elected, call a referendum, promise the moon
and ask if you like apple pie.
Oh wait. There's the Clarity Act and the threat of partitioning the
province to think of now.
Judge John Gomery's decision to ban publication of Mr Brault's
testimony (some of which is contested) was reversed in part after
this
was posted on an American website. The effect of the ban was merely
to
draw more attention to the testimony. The damage to the Liberals
showed
up in an opinion poll by Ipsos-Reid (see chart). Another poll, by
EKOS,
put the Conservatives even further ahead of the Liberals, at 36% to
25%. In Quebec, it showed Liberal support having collapsed to 18%,
with
the separatist Bloc Qu=E9b=E9cois at 48%.
Be pragmatic though. Vote for the Bloc if your angry, what possible
damage could it do? It's not like they can call a referendum
themselves.
These polls show the Conservatives level or even ahead in Ontario, a
Liberal stronghold. That makes an early election attractive to
Stephen
Harper, the Conservative leader, as well as to the Bloc. If they
combine their forces behind a no-confidence motion, they could
outvote
the Liberals in the House of Commons.
Curious though that the Conservatives have not done better. Let's face
it, the poll numbers indicate that the Conservatives would only gain a
minority government if they win at all. That would not be good enough
for Harper and his circle.
The Liberal ship is already showing signs of sinking. One of the 133
Liberal MPs this week left the party to sit as an independent.
Another
33 Liberals defied Mr Martin and voted with the Conservatives to kill
a
government bill recognising same-sex marriage. Impatient Tories are
urging Mr Harper to engineer a snap election. They argue that the
best
time for a vote would be late June, after a provincial election in
British Columbia, a visit by Queen Elizabeth to western Canada-and
the end of Judge Gomery's public hearings.
This will still be seen as political opportunism. Canadians like their
minority government. Harper would be viewed as the one who screwed it
up.
Then ofcoarse there is the real possibility that Harper could lose a
second time in less than a year. With all these issues working to his
advantage he still can not convince Canadians to trust him. He painted
himself as a Bush loyalist all too well.
If the polls are right, Mr Harper could expect to win such an
election,
though the Tories might win only one seat in Quebec. It would be a
close-run thing. Mr Martin, to whom no personal blame has attached
over
the scandal, remains slightly more trusted than Mr Harper. The polls
suggest the leftish New Democrats and Greens would attract more
disillusioned Liberals than would the Tories. Tellingly, some 85% of
respondents told pollsters they want Mr Gomery to finish his work-his
report is due in December-before an election.
Still, the last thing NDP or Green supporters want is any form of
Harper government. They will support Martin again if they think that
could happen. If only the Conservatives would just get rid of Harper.
And Mulroney. And Stronch.
By then the Liberals may have recovered and Mr Harper's moment might
have passed. If he does go for an early election, the big winner
could
be Gilles Duceppe, the Bloc's leader. Some would expect him to
capitalise by leaving federal politics and taking charge of the more
powerful Parti Qu=E9b=E9cois in the province itself.
Ala Lucien Bouchard? There's a problem with that. The PQ already have a
leader, Bernard Landry, who has no intension of going anywhere. Least
of all to step aside for some upstart who is just the a care taker
leader of a powerless party and happened to get lucky. Don't be
suprised if Landry attempts to muddy the waters for Duceppe during any
upcoming election. Just enough so that Duceppe manages to lose a seat
or two. There's already been a wif of scandal lofting from the PQ in
the Gomery Inquiry.
And if Duceppe does well anyways? He will have to fight a pretty bloody
and public battle against Landry, his loyalists and all the other hard
liners in the PQ. The last thing they want is another Bouchard and a
quest for "winning conditions" which never arise.
And if Duceppe still becomes leader of the PQ? Then with a fractured
party only half-heartedly behind him, he'll have to take on Charest.
Charest may not be a better leader than Duceppe but he will effectively
use every fault in the PQ's twisted armour against Duceppe. Charest did
the same thing to Landry.
It will be a long pot hole filled road from Ottawa to Quebec City for
Mr. Duceppe.
There he could
challenge Quebec's clumsy Liberal premier, Jean Charest, and so pose
a
new threat to Canadian unity. All this is but speculation, but such
is
the febrile atmosphere in Canada's normally placid capital that it is
being taken seriously.
Again, the next Quebec election is over two years away. Much may change
by then. Public opinion may have moved on. I suspect that by that time
the PQ will have also been tarred by the Gomery brush.
.
