Nicaragua: Power Struggle and Vested U.S. Interest
July 14, 2005 21 32 GMT
Summary
Embattled Nicaraguan President Enrique Bolanos traveled to Washington
on July 14 to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and
sign an agreement that will give $175 million to the Nicaraguan
government. The money is a show of support for Bolanos, who is engaged
in a power struggle with a Sandinista-Liberal Constitutionalist Party
front intent on returning Daniel Ortega to power.
Analysis
U=2ES. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met with Nicaraguan President
Enrique Bolanos in Washington on July 14 to sign a "Millennium
Challenge" agreement that would give $175 million to the Bolanos
government to help strengthen property rights, reduce transportation
costs and increase profits and wages from farming. The United States
hopes the money will give some respite to Bolanos, who is facing
impeachment hearings that began July 11. Bolanos is banking on his
popularity among the people and on U.S. support to help him weather the
hearings and maintain his hold on power.
Marxist Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) leader Daniel
Ortega has been targeting the presidency since Bolanos defeated him for
the office in 2001. Ortega, president of Nicaragua from 1979 to 1990,
united with jailed ex-President Arnoldo Alem=E1n, leader of the Liberal
Constitutionalist Party (PLC), to take down Bolanos in the first half
of 2004 after Aleman was sentenced to 20 years of house arrest on
corruption charges leveled against him by Bolanos. The PLC revolted
against Bolanos and kicked him out of the party. Ortega has promised to
pardon Aleman when he becomes president, and many members of the PLC --
yearning for the good old days when they got a slice of the corruption
pie under Aleman -- have joined in the plot with the FSLN.
With Parliament firmly under the control of the united FSLN-PLC, Ortega
and Aleman have mounted an all-out attack against Bolanos' executive
powers. On July 11, a formal impeachment hearing began on the grounds
that Bolanos is guilty of electoral crimes and embezzlement of $100
million. The army and the judiciary are controlled by the Sandinistas,
so there is little governmental recourse left for Bolanos to save his
presidency.
However, there is some hope for Bolanos. According to a poll taken July
6-7, 74.8 percent of Nicaraguans are against impeachment and 82.2
percent are against calling early elections, as Ortega has proposed.
Such popular support for Bolanos and such discontentment with Ortega
means it will be difficult for the FSLN-PLC to carry out its plan. If
Ortega and Aleman manage to get Bolanos out of office, they will face
widespread discontentment among the population, coupled with strong
disapproval by the United States. It is unlikely that the military
would be able to act en masse against large- scale demonstrations,
despite being controlled by the Sandinistas. If the masses do not turn,
Bolanos is through. If Bolanos can convince the people to turn out for
him (as the polling numbers suggest they would), Ortega and Aleman
would be finished.
It remains to be seen whether Ortega realizes this. If he does, he
either will seek to make a deal with Bolanos or discredit him in some
way in the eyes of the people. Indeed, the FSLN-PLC is impeaching
Bolanos on the grounds of corruption. The ultimate goal of the
impeachment might be as much to discredit Bolanos as it is to force him
to resign.
If Ortega does somehow manage to pull off his legislative coup,
Nicaragua would reorient itself closer to China, Brazil, Venezuela,
Cuba and Bolivia, as Stratfor previously pointed out.
An Ortega government would not be in the best interest of the United
States. Washington already has lost major ground in Latin America with
the rise of President Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and Evo Morales in
Bolivia, and Bolanos is one of the few leaders left in the region
sympathetic to Washington. In Nicaragua, the United States is faced
with a fight it can win with the popular support of the people. All it
has to do is throw money at the problem, issue statements, and cross
its fingers.
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