Mark Townsend and Jason Burke
Sunday July 7, 2002
The Observer

Earth's population will be forced to colonise two planets within 50
years if natural resources continue to be exploited at the current
rate, according to a report out this week.
A study by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), to be released on Tuesday,
warns that the human race is plundering the planet at a pace that
outstrips its capacity to support life.

In a damning condemnation of Western society's high consumption
levels, it adds that the extra planets (the equivalent size of Earth)
will be required by the year 2050 as existing resources are
exhausted.

The report, based on scientific data from across the world, reveals
that more than a third of the natural world has been destroyed by
humans over the past three decades.

Using the image of the need for mankind to colonise space as a stark
illustration of the problems facing Earth, the report warns that
either consumption rates are dramatically and rapidly lowered or the
planet will no longer be able to sustain its growing population.

Experts say that seas will become emptied of fish while forests -
which absorb carbon dioxide emissions - are completely destroyed and
freshwater supplies become scarce and polluted.

The report offers a vivid warning that either people curb their
extravagant lifestyles or risk leaving the onus on scientists to
locate another planet that can sustain human life. Since this is
unlikely to happen, the only option is to cut consumption now.

Systematic overexploitation of the planet's oceans has meant the
North Atlantic's cod stocks have collapsed from an estimated spawning
stock of 264,000 tonnes in 1970 to under 60,000 in 1995.

The study will also reveal a sharp fall in the planet's ecosystems
between 1970 and 2002 with the Earth's forest cover shrinking by
about 12 per cent, the ocean's biodiversity by a third and freshwater
ecosystems in the region of 55 per cent.

The Living Planet report uses an index to illustrate the shocking
level of deterioration in the world's forests as well as marine and
freshwater ecosystems. Using 1970 as a baseline year and giving it a
value of 100, the index has dropped to a new low of around 65 in the
space of a single generation.

It is not just humans who are at risk. Scientists, who examined data
for 350 kinds of mammals, birds, reptiles and fish, also found the
numbers of many species have more than halved.

Martin Jenkins, senior adviser for the World Conservation Monitoring
Centre in Cambridge, which helped compile the report, said: 'It seems
things are getting worse faster than possibly ever before. Never has
one single species had such an overwhelming influence. We are
entering uncharted territory.'

Figures from the centre reveal that black rhino numbers have fallen
from 65,000 in 1970 to around 3,100 now. Numbers of African elephants
have fallen from around 1.2 million in 1980 to just over half a
million while the population of tigers has fallen by 95 per cent
during the past century.

The UK's birdsong population has also seen a drastic fall with the
corn bunting population declining by 92 per cent between 1970 and
2000, the tree sparrow by 90 per cent and the spotted flycatcher by
70 per cent.

Experts, however, say it is difficult to ascertain how many species
have vanished for ever because a species has to disappear for 50
years before it can be declared extinct.

Attention is now focused on next month's Earth Summit in
Johannesburg, the most important environmental negotiations for a
decade.

However, the talks remain bedevilled with claims that no agreements
will be reached and that US President George W. Bush will fail to
attend.

Matthew Spencer, a spokesman for Greenpeace, said: 'There will have
to be concessions from the richer nations to the poorer ones or there
will be fireworks.'

The preparatory conference for the summit, held in Bali last month,
was marred by disputes between developed nations and poorer states
and non-governmental organisations (NGOs), despite efforts by British
politicians to broker compromises on key issues.

America, which sent 300 delegates to the conference, is accused of
blocking many of the key initiatives on energy use, biodiversity and
corporate responsibility.

The WWF report shames the US for placing the greatest pressure on the
environment. It found the average US resident consumes almost double
the resources as that of a UK citizen and more than 24 times that of
some Africans.

Based on factors such as a nation's consumption of grain, fish, wood
and fresh water along with its emissions of carbon dioxide from
industry and cars, the report provides an ecological 'footprint' for
each country by showing how much land is required to support each
resident.

America's consumption 'footprint' is 12.2 hectares per head of
population compared to the UK's 6.29ha while Western Europe as a
whole stands at 6.28ha. In Ethiopia the figure is 2ha, falling to
just half a hectare for Burundi, the country that consumes least
resources.

The report, which will be unveiled in Geneva, warns that the wasteful
lifestyles of the rich nations are mainly responsible for the
exploitation and depletion of natural wealth. Human consumption has
doubled over the last 30 years and continues to accelerate by 1.5 per
cent a year.

Now WWF wants world leaders to use its findings to agree on specific
actions to curb the population's impact on the planet.

A spokesman for WWF UK, said: 'If all the people consumed natural
resources at the same rate as the average US and UK citizen we would
require at least two extra planets like Earth.'

The world's ticking timebomb

Marine crisis:
North Atlantic cod stocks have collapsed from an estimated 264,000
tonnes in 1970 to under 60,000 in 1995.

Pollution:
The United States places the greatest pressure on the environment,
with its carbon dioxide emissions and over-consumption. It takes 12.2
hectares of land to support each American citizen and 6.29 for each
Briton, while the figure for Burundi is just half a hectare.

Shrinking Forests:
Between 1970 and 2002 forest cover has dwindled by 12 per cent.

Endangered wildlife:
African elephant numbers have fallen from 1.2 million in 1980 to half
a million now. In the UK the songbird population has fallen
dramatically, with the corn bunting declining by 92 per cent in the
past 30 years.