Muqtada al-Sadr is probably the infamous Alus of C6 Q33, I am not 100%
sure, as I do see some fit in's with the conflict between Egypt and
the Ottoman Empire in the 1830's.

If C6 Q33 is about Muqtada al-Sadr, this suggests that his faction
will be a fifth column in a future invasion of Iran. This will
probably be part of a double invasion that includes Syria. I do not
see this happening untill after this next presidency term.

It suggests that the main US invasion will be by sea against Iran's
Persian Gulf coast. I think the US will have "pulled out" of Iraq by
this time, and given power to a teetering "Provisional Government".
But US forces will not really "pull out"; they will withdraw to Kuwait
and their bases in the samll Gulf naitons as well as Turkey and be
poised in such a manner so they can rapidly redeploy and prop up this
Iraqi Provisonal government if it is about to get overwhelmed by the
current resistance groups operating in Iraq.

Bush will probably try to meet his June 30 deadline or not go to far
beyond it, but he will not be able to completely destroy Sadr's group.

There could also develop an intra Kurd struggle

Later during this future war with Iran, I suspect US strategy will
involve deployed a threatening number of troops and Iraqi Provisional
Governemt forces along the Iran-Iraq border in order to tie down
Iranian forces, while the main thrust comes from the sea. Iran will
counter by linking uo with Sadr's group to harass enemy forces
deployed inside Iraq and may even attempt a counter thrust into Iraq.

This war with Iran will eventually draw in the Russians, angered by US
bombing of nuclear sites which they helped build. It will also anger
France, who will seriously deploy a "trip wire" force inside Syria in
an expression of former colonial patrimony. The French will probably
not resist, at worse there will be a standoff with US forces at
positions where this trip wire army is located. But the Russians will
resist, and this will lead to a Russo American clash. Though it will
not go nuclear, this conflict will eventually spill over into the
Baltics, where Russian airforce units will attempt to target NATO air
facilities that will be built there. Long term consequence is ethnic
conflict in the Baltics that will carry on even after this
Russo-American clash has "ended."

This Russo-American clash will primarliy be a sea and air clash, and
at sea it will be mostly a submarine war. The Russians may deploy a
trip wire force inside Iran as the French did, but this time they will
not hesitate to fight. However, it will not be large; Russia is too
isolated from Iran to be able to deploy large forces there. Why does
Russia take great lengths to help Iran? Officially, to respond to
destruction of Russian "property"; unofficially to not loose
credibility amoungst the Muslim world, especially since it is has one
of the largest Muslim populations of a "non Muslim" country in the
world.

Russia will get the worst of it in this war. This war will also have a
crippling effect on US power, already weakened by clashes with China
over Taiwan and Bush's most likely planned invasion of North Korea.
The effect on Russia will be a take over by facists, extremist Russian
nationalism, which will sparked non Russian separatist movements in
Russia, Russian / Slavic separatist movements in neighboring FSU
countries, and later on an all out war with Turkey when the Pan
Islamic Turkish nationalist 3rd anti christ takes over.