I think it ought to be painfully obvious to even the most extremist of
right-wing conservatives and neocon (aka neo-fascist) supporters of George
W. Bush and the invasion of Iraq that this whole debacle is coming apart at
the seams, and can only promise to become yet another Vietnam, albeit ten
times more lethal, not only as a threat to the coalition troops, but also
having the potential for it to quickly become a regional conflagration, and
then thus a global holocaust.

Those same blind supporters will never admit to it, but the chief reason
(far outweighing any other) for invading Iraq was to secure for the United
States the world's second largest proven oil reserves in the world. In fact,
they're pretty much the *only* ones in the world who have yet to come to
that most obvious of conclusions.

Now, a year after it began its invasion, and about ten months after
hostilities were officially declared over, the United States and coalition
forces have also proven to the world that while they may be adept at winning
the war, they are quite inept at keeping the peace. It should also come as
no shock that the Bush Administration had no real plans on how to deal with
a post-war Iraq, except to secure the various oil fields and related
infrastructure throughout that nation, as well as the ministry headquarters
in downtown Baghdad (rather than say, the priceless treasures at the
national museum down the road, for example). Promises to restore
electricity, running water and other necessities of life are still being
largely unkept months later.

Meanwhile, the US and coalition forces currently face a far greater threat
to their security than at any time during the short war itself a year ago,
largely to the incompetence, and sheer lack of foresight and resolve on the
part of those in command of those forces. Instead of dealing quickly and
harshly with insurgents such as the chubby radical Shiite cleric Moqtada
al-Sadr, who has been openly calling for a holy Jihad, both in his newspaper
and in mass rallies for the past year or so, it wasn't until the past month
that they finally ordered a crackdown, by shutting down his press, and going
after his Mahdi militiamen, who have grown exponentially during that time.
Too little, too late. Add to the that the latest 'mistake in judgment' of
bombing the mosque filled with afternoon worshipers in Fallujah, and you can
be sure that the now formidable Mahdi militia, even though not exactly
sympathetic to the Sunni sect itself, will find its numbers swell even more
exponentially. Needless to say, that goes double for whatever numbers the
Sunnis themselves have in their ranks.

As well, the Coalition Command has also failed miserably in sealing up
Iraq's frontier borders with nations such as Saudi Arabia, Syria and worst
of all Iran, through which have poured thousands of ultra-fanatical
mercenary soldiers and their tons of weaponry, bent on driving out the
'Great Satan' occupiers. At this point, there is virtually nobody left in
Iraq (with any real physical/military power), with the possible exception of
the northern Kurds, who want the Americans and coalition forces to stay.
Both of the remaining sides, whether Sunni or Shiite, seem willing to put
aside their ancient antipathies towards each other (for the time being
anyhow) in order to fight the common enemy, America, while they are on their
native soil.

The Writing is on the prophetic Wall for the Coalition Forces. Bush's
'obvious' choices are few. Either they soon receive a *massive* infusion of
infantry and weaponry to deal with the quickly escalating situation (shades
of 1964 Vietnam under Lyndon Johnson), withdraw completely, or become wiped
out through attrition, an equally escalating inevitability. What ought to be
obvious is that Bush's plan of decreasing the current American force of
135,000 to 100,000 by June 30 is a simply insane and suicidal invitation to
become wiped out in short order, let alone a force capable of keeping the
peace while an inadequate moderate Iraqi government struggles to find its
feet during its nascent first year in power, controlling an increasingly
uncontrollable populace.

Obviously, allowing their numbers to be picked off at the current
ever-increasing rate, which is the status quo, is unacceptable. Although the
current force, in its current 'get tough' mode, can hold its own for the
time being, it ought to be obvious that at the current rate of growth of the
armed insurgents now attacking them, it won't be long until the exhausted
coalition forces reach their 'saturation point', especially as the weather
in Iraq becomes predictably, unbearably hot (which at least partly explains
Bush's target date of June 30 at the latest for a political handover to the
Iraqis).

The first scenario, that of vastly increasing the size of the American
forces (don't even think the other coalition partners would equally do so,
including Britain), is sure to be poorly received news in election-year
America, whether Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry agrees it's
the right thing to do or not. Although most Americans a year ago never saw
Iraq becoming another Vietnam quagmire, they are almost sure to by now or at
least very soon. All things being equal, if Bush had another two to four
years left before calling an election, no doubt this would be his option.
But all things are not equal, and Bush well knows that things aren't about
to be settled very well, or quickly in the coalition's favor in the next
seven months before the November elections by creating another Vietnam
situation. Such a turnaround at this point, after *still* promising a
partial withdrawal by June 30th of his war-weary homesick forces, is sure to
cause a backlash amongst both Democratic and Republican voters, not the
least of which are the worried families and loved ones of their sons and
daughters being picked off, if not outrightly slaughtered by an 'ungrateful'
Iraqi people.

That leaves one 'obvious' scenario, that of a complete withdrawal of
American and coalition forces. Even ignoring the fact that Bush's primary
goal of invading Iraq was to secure the oil fields and existing
infrastructure in that nation, while cynically claiming it was to eliminate
the non-existed WMD threats to America, or to liberate the 'freedom-loving'
but decades-deprived Iraqis from the tyrant Saddam Hussein, is the issue
with what's been invested and sacrificed in those pursuits, stated and
unstated, so far.

Never mind the 100-odd American soldiers and civilians who have died during
the early 'war' period, or the subsequent 500-odd who have died since. God
knows Bush the warmonger doesn't mind that either (let alone coalition
nations' soldiers who have sacrificed their lives in the name of a cheap
secure supply of oil for the American people).

More than that, but not the *most* critical variable sure to keep Bush's
hand in Iraq is the 'Pride factor'. To pull out its remaining brave soldiers
now, with tail tucked under its legs, in the face of threats from Iraqi
insurgents is something that George W. Bush could never allow himself to do,
especially when most of the rest of the world will have said, 'Told ya so'.
Add to that how such an obvious surrender will change future American
influence in the Middle East and elsewhere. Whether it's still the sole
Superpower in the world or not, the USA would become the laughingstock of
the
world, and become quite beneath its contempt for decades to come.

Nope, those aren't the most important reasons sure to keep at least 160,000
coalition forces in Iraq. It's
the money spent, stupid. How many tens of billions, if not hundreds of
billions of
American dollars have been spent on this foreign invasion adventure already?
Personally, I have no idea, but it's undoubtedly 'up there' enough to
preclude even the remotest possibility of a pull-out at this point. And it
will all have been spent in vain, most *notably* that not a single drop of
Iraqi oil (to my knowledge anyhow) will have been shipped home.

Of the three 'obvious' choices, the massive infusion of further troops and
equipment to bolster the coalition forces tenuous grip on the nation is the
most likely, albeit a distasteful one, and a choice sure to bite Mr. Bush
square in the ***** come Election Day.

However, there remains one 'not-so obvious' solution. That is for the
American and coalition forces to withdraw partially to certain select areas,
namely to the oil producing regions and especially the existing oil wells
themselves, and the northern relatively friendly Kurdish territory, also an
oil-producing region. As for the latter, Bush will most likely order his
troops to draw a line in the sand roughly equal to the pre-existing northern
'no-fly zone' that originally separated the Kurds from the hostile Sunnis
and Shiites to the south.

Elsewhere, they will most likely draw another line around the southeastern
oil wells near the Persian Gulf, where the British forces are currently in
charge.

See the CIA map at
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/iraq_oil_2003.jpg
and draw your own conclusions as to where the American and coalition forces
will
retreat and set up the bulwark of their forces and artillery to stave off
the outraged Sunni and Shiite militias should they attack, by using open
battlefield weapons and tactics, which they are obviously superior at doing,
as opposed to keeping the peace in hostile urban centres such as Baghdad.

As for the 'rest' of the country, which includes the major central
population centres with cities like Baghdad, Bush will simply let the Sunnis
and Shiites have it, hoping that the impending and imminent interminable
civil war between the two actually happens, and allow the Americans to go
ahead and take what they came for in the first place.

Yes, he is *that* cynical, and *that* naive to believe he can get away with
*that*, too. Although he will no doubt point out that the central Shiite and
Sunni Triangle regions and peoples have become unmanageable, he will also
undoubtedly reply that after careful consideration, he must 'cut his losses'
and protect the more 'grateful' northern Kurds, and relatively friendly
southeastern Iraqis who 'appreciate' what the Americans and 'coalition of
the willing' was, and is still trying to do for the nation.

Take another look at that map again, and just watch him.