Russia: Putin Considers Sending Troops to Iraq
July 16, 2004

Summary

Moscow is considering a request by the Bush administration to send
Russian troops to Iraq or Afghanistan this fall, just before the U.S.
presidential election. The move would be of enormous benefit to U.S.
President George W. Bush and a risky venture for Russian President
Vladimir Putin, who faces his own Islamist insurgency in Chechnya and
public opposition to U.S. policy in Iraq. Torn between his desire to
support Bush and his need to address domestic concerns, Putin will
delay his final decision to the eleventh hour.

Analysis

Moscow and Washington are quietly negotiating a request by the Bush
administration to send Russian troops to Iraq or Afghanistan this
fall, Russian government sources tell Stratfor. The talks are intense,
our contacts close to the U.S. State Department say, and the timing is
not insignificant. A Russian troop lift to either country before the
U.S. presidential election would give U.S. President George W. Bush a
powerful boost in the campaign.

Sources close to Russia's Security Council tell Stratfor that Russian
President Vladimir Putin has agreed to the request "in principle" and
has directed the Russian General Staff to work up a plan by the end of
the month. Before making a decision, however, Putin wants to make sure
all logistical and international legal questions are resolved --
perhaps with United Nations involvement

-- and he will not move
without a formal U.S. request. It is a tough decision for Putin, who
will carefully weigh the risks and rewards and likely make his
decision at the last possible moment.

Stratfor sources in the Russian Energy and Industry Ministry also say
the Prime Minister's office has issued a directive to the ministry to
prepare a Russian "wish list" for Washington seeking some level of
quid pro quo, including steps to return Russian oil companies to Iraq
and approval of Russia's joining the World Trade Organization.

If a troop agreement is reached, the Bush administration would enjoy
not only a timely spike in the polls during the campaign season, but
also the strategic, long-term benefit of having a sizable contingent
-- as many as 40,000, Stratfor sources say -- of Russian troops
relieve beleaguered American forces and free them up for regional
purposes beyond Iraq. Getting a major troop contribution from any
country, particularly one that was originally opposed to the war in
Iraq, would be a boon for Washington, which is starting to recognize
the limits of its unilateral approach. A Russian troop commitment
could not only stifle the development of a Paris-Berlin-Moscow
alliance against U.S. policy in the Middle East but also could prevent
-- over the long term -- the formation of a troika among Russia, China
and India to counter U.S. dominance.

And the Russian Army, although certainly not as formidable as it was
at the height of Soviet power, is a skillful and resolute ground force
seasoned by 10 years of fighting Chechen guerrillas (superb fighters
and mentors to Islamist insurgents worldwide). Formations considered
for the Russian deployment include three mechanized infantry divisions
and one airborne brigade, Russian military sources say. The current
general staff scenario has Russian troops spread across Iraq, but
Washington would likely want them concentrated in the Sunni Triangle
where the insurgency continues to grow. It is not even necessary for
the Russian troops to win militarily in Iraq; Washington would not
expect that. Tough street fighters, they could effectively tie down
and distract Iraqi insurgents while the Americans regroup for
strategic missions in the region.

Nevertheless, for Russian President Vladimir Putin, sending Russian
troops to Iraq poses far more risk than reward. For one thing,
fighting Islamist militants in Iraq would raise Russia's profile as a
target for al Qaeda and other jihadists far beyond the scale of
Chechen guerrilla activity. A flood of volunteers from a
25-million-strong Islamic community in Russia and foreign Islamic
nations-- angry with Russia's major contribution to an Iraq war on
Washington's behalf -- could turn all the Russian North Caucasus,
predominantly Muslim, into one vast combat zone.

The move could also disrupt Russian society, which has opposed the
Iraqi war from the outset, and generate a meaningful challenge to
Putin's power. And while the Russian general staff believes it is
possible to deploy 40,000 Russian troops, it would definitely put a
strain on the Russian army, particularly given its ongoing commitment
in Chechnya. Stratfor sources also suggest that some Russian officers
would be unhappy with the deployment and might even refuse to go.

Given a move that would be serious high-stakes poker for Putin, why
would he do it? Betting on a Bush victory in November, Putin wants
Bush to maintain a positive attitude toward Russia in general and
Putin in particular during a second term, when Bush would be free to
conduct whatever foreign policy he wants to. Also, Putin's mission in
life seems to be to irrevocably link post-Communist Russia with the
United States -- economically, politically, militarily.

Meanwhile, as long as the Russian people -- who have been grudgingly
tolerant of Putin's pro-Western stratagem so far -- can remain patient
and relatively undisturbed, the risks in Putin's mind could be worth
taking. Someday, if he is slow and prudent with his policies, Putin
envisions a tipping point for Russia, when rising consumerism and ties
to the West will forever link Moscow's fate with Washington's. His
hope may be that sending Russian troops to Iraq would help forge that
link.

However, Putin is aware that if he miscalculates the degree to which
he can test Russia's patience, having troops in Iraq could cause a
huge domestic backlash, cost him his power and return the nation to
its anti-American past.

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Don't aggree with this final conclusion. Russians wil just pull out
and align more closely to Europe and facilitate the Old Europe fallout
with America. Russia will go through a Spain like reaction, and may
experience a couple of Madrid train bombings, and I do agree there
will a change of leddership. But this won't create condiitons toward
support of direct confrontation with America.