Russia Reloaded: Back to the Future of Deterrence
December 30, 2003 1800 GMT
Summary
Russia recently activated a regiment of Strategic Missile Troops and
deployed nuclear-capable missiles, signaling a U-turn in nuclear
doctrine from disarmament back to Cold War-era deterrence. This is
just the first step in plans to re-affirm Russia's position as a
strategic nuclear power in the post-Cold War century, and the first
indicator of an old-fashioned U.S.-Russian arms race that likely will
rule defense spending for the next 15-20 years.
Analysis
Russia recently activated a regiment of Strategic Missile Troops
(RVSN) and deployed six nuclear-capable Topol-M strategic missiles to
launch sites within Russia, thus openly declaring Moscow's move away
from nuclear disarmament back to a policy of global deterrence. The
move came shortly after both Australia and Japan expressed support for
the United States' efforts to develop a defensive missile shield.
Moscow's move back toward nuclear arms has been prompted by both
Washington's pursuit of a national missile defense (NMD) program and,
in a larger context, by Russia's own declining geopolitical weight in
the post-Cold War era. Maintaining a nuclear arsenal is one way for
Russia to preserve its global relevance in the face of multiple
threats and despite its currently weakened military posture.
Ultimately, this strategy serves to maintain the balance of "mutually
assured destruction" that defined the Cold War era, but a viable NMD
program in the United States challenges that balance.
With Russia's response to NMD now openly declared, a return to an
old-fashioned U.S.-Russian arms race seems inevitable as the two
nations engage in a "back-to-the-future" nuclear doctrine: retaining
the right of first use and maintaining lethal stockpiles of deployed
strategic weapons to deter enemy aggression. Technological
developments that result from evolving policies to restore the balance
provided under MAD will be the focus of defense spending for the next
15-20 years.
During the past decade, Moscow's influence has declined as
Washington's global shadow grew longer and darker. Russia's economic,
social, military and cultural strength has been severely reduced --
and in order to avoid being assigned a mere bit role in global
affairs, Moscow perceives a need to maintain strategic nuclear
missiles. In this way, Russia could continue to act as a counterweight
to an increasingly powerful United States.
This situation began brewing in 2000 -- when it became clear to Russia
that the United States would not honor previous anti-ballistic missile
(ABM) treaties. But it culminated with U.S. efforts to persuade Russia
to abandon the 1972 ABM treaty -- which banned the development of a
national missile defense system -- and adopt a separate Nuclear
Disarmament Treaty, which U.S. President George W. Bush and Russian
President Vladimir Putin signed in 2002.
The 2002 treaty called for a reduction in actively deployed nuclear
weapons from the approximately 6,000 warheads the two nations
collectively possess today, to between 1,700 and 2,000 responsive
warheads. However, the treaty did not call for the weapons'
destruction -- merely their deactivation. This means that huge
stockpiles of weapons can be retained as long as only a small number
are actually deployed -- hence, the term "responsive" warheads. Both
sides have been exploiting this loophole all along to maintain their
nuclear programs, while publicly appearing to engage in disarmament.
Well before the 2002 treaty, Russia decided to deploy a number of RVSN
equipped with the then state-of-the-art Topol-M (SS 27). However, due
to budgetary shortfalls and protracted political wrangling, Russia's
plan fell by the wayside and Moscow only now is beginning to catch up.
Russia's military now possesses approximately 50 of the 6,000-mile
range Topol-M's. This is well below the 150 it was expected to have by
2003, but still enough to overmatch an inefficient missile defense
network. Activation of these missiles, along with Russia's
already-announced future nuclear developments, will provoke the United
States to counterbalance the moves by progressing with its
anti-missile defense system as well as further developments to its
first-strike capability.
This offensive-defensive arms race has begun in earnest. Currently,
Russian offensive capabilities overpower the defensive U.S. counter --
NMD -- but Moscow is aware that NMD technology is advancing. Russia's
renewed fervor is evident in a new missile program that is slated to
begin production next year. The payload capacity is four times greater
than the Topol-M and can carry up to 10 nuclear warheads. Moscow's
reaction to a missile defense shield puts the ball in Washington's
court to maintain and improve its own strategic missile and NMD
capabilities -- primarily regarding reliability -- if it hopes to
successfully counterbalance any strategic missile threat.
Over the next decade, a renewed arms race between Russia and the
United States is likely to emerge. Missiles and missile defense
spending will be a major focus of defense budgets. The end result will
be a renewed stalemate in the global strategic arms race, as offensive
and defensive technologies improve in rapid succession to cancel out
advantages gained by either side.
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| User: "Saint Isidore of Seville" |
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| Title: Re: Russia Reloaded: Back to the Future of Deterrence |
31 Dec 2003 11:52:42 AM |
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