The possession of a lighthouse in the Crimea has developed into a bone
of contention for Russia and Ukraine. Moscow claims that the
lighthouse, which Russia operates under a lease agreement to house its
Black Sea fleet in Ukraine, was seized by Ukrainian hydrographers Jan.
13. Kiev, however, claimed Tuesday that the lighthouse is Ukrainian
territory and said the Russian presence at hydrographic stations
violates Ukrainian law and treaties between the two countries.
According to an unconfirmed report, several Russian marines -- acting
either officially or of their own accord -- seized a Ukrainian
hydrographic station on the Sea of Azov in retaliation for the
Ukrainians' action last week, and placed a plaque at the door that read
"territory of Russia." Ratcheting things up further, Ukraine formally
notified Russia on Tuesday that it would be conducting an inventory of
Russia's Black Sea fleet.
Beyond all the confusion of ships and lighthouses is one simple fact:
Both Kiev and Moscow have a vested interest in provoking a crisis.
On the one hand, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko faces
parliamentary elections in March. Should his Our Ukraine party fail, he
will lose control of the government, and the Orange Revolution would,
for all practical purposes, be at an end.
Russia's logic, on the other hand, is more complex. Moscow forced the
natural gas crisis involving Ukraine and Europe at the beginning of the
year in order to prove a point: Europe's energy security is in Moscow's
hands and, if that is not to be jeopardized, the Kremlin will require a
little help with some Ukrainian issues from time to time.
Well, here's a Ukrainian issue, and this is certainly a time.
At this point, Yushchenko cannot reverse course and back down from
confrontation with Moscow without giving the impression that he has
caved to the Russians. Not until after the March parliamentary
elections will the Ukrainian government be able to call a cooling off
period and return to calmer relations.
But Moscow's calculus differs. Russia's geopolitical position is viewed
as irredeemable unless Ukraine is in its orbit. The Russian government
has no reason to stop with current efforts just because campaign
posters are yellowing in Ukraine.
Which means that we will be watching events unfold particularly closely
come April, when the Ukrainian elections are but a memory. The focus,
however, will not be so closely trained on Moscow, Kiev or the Crimea
as it will be on Berlin. The whole point of Russia's cutoff of natural
gas supplies earlier this year was to apprise the Europeans of Moscow's
belief that Europe needs Russian energy more than it needs orange
banners in Kiev. German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with Russian
President Vladimir Putin on Jan. 16, but the summit resulted in few
substantive public statements -- despite the fact that the two leaders
held a three-hour heart-to-heart.
Perhaps they spoke of ships and lighthouses?
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