with nuclear weapons!!!!!!! Bin Laden must be having an orgasm!!! :) Go
freedom and democracy!!! Thank you Bush and Rice for making the world
so much safer.
_
And ***** humanity. !_!_
_! ! (Attempt to make swatstika)
COMMENTS
These articles fail to fully emphasize the fact that many internal non
Russian minority groups in the Russian Federation also have local
ethnic hatreds as well. It only briefly mentions the Ingush-North
Ossetian ethnic conflict, which erupted in the early 90's into a full
blown ethnic war that resulted in 100's dead after about only 3 DAYS of
conflict. There are literally hundreds of local ethnic rivalries.
Another one as an example is the Tatar-Bashkir ethnic rivalry.
The bad sperm sample products and their jelly donut belly filled
walking ***** bag maggot breeding oil barron ally fucks with genetic
obseity diseases will have a hard time accessing the Volga's oil
rsources...unless they want to call a draft to supply the manpower for
a peacekeeping mission between these groups...but some people here have
got to make sacrifices so these middle / upper class soccer mom sluts
can continue to drive their SUV's and HUMMERS sporting 'McDonald's
patriotic' "support our troops" magnetic ribbons...just more of
"somebody else" so they or their kids won't have to do it.
The local ethnic extremists will agitate these local hatreds to
"hijack" the liberal western orientations of these protest movements.
The local mafia syndicates will ally with these folks, who will take
advantage of the chaos and lawlessness they create, which is good for
drug and weapon smuggling.
People may turn to Islam, especially in Muslim ethnic minority areas,
seeking an alternative to chaos. They will be both local and from
abroad. Because of the circumstances, the nature of these Muslim
movements will be radicalized. The nationalists and crime syndicates
will accomodate the jihadists, especially since they will have the
cash, and they will serve as a unifying and "stabilizing" force, in
that they will convert choas into a more focused anarchy involving a
sectarian clash of civilizations.
The non Muslim, Slavic culturally oriented groups in the RF will unify
with each other around an anti-Islamic and anti-American/Western
banner.
Interesting...would Russian ethnic minority groups in other surrounding
republics decide to go with the flow being established in the Russian
Federation and carry out separtist campaigns? ("Hey, you let ethnic
minorities separate in the Russian Federation, why can't you let ethnic
minorities separate in Latvia, etc?") With the anarchy being unleashed
in the RF, I think it will be much easier to do so, and for outside
agitators to pursue a "Greater Russia" (ala "Greater Serbia"), wether
these diaspora Russians decide to pursue separatism or not. This will
inevitably draw in Western Europe, and they will be saying "Thank you
***** Bush" as they move in. So will Bin Laden and his successors.
==================================================================
Bashkortostan: First Rehearsal of a Pro-Western 'Revolution'
April 08, 2005 14 08 GMT
Summary
Protesters gathered in Bashkortostan's capital of Ufa on March 26 and
in Moscow on April 7 to demand the ouster of Bashkortostan's president.
These demonstrations, along with the organization of opposition forces
in other non-ethnic Russian regions of the central Russian Federation,
could be the first signs of another "velvet revolution" -- this time,
in Russia proper.
Analysis
Bashkortostan, an autonomous Russian Federation republic located in the
southern Urals, witnessed a mass protest March 26, when as many as
20,000 demonstrators gathered in the central square of Ufa, the Bashkir
capital, to demand President Murtaza Rakhimov's resignation. The rally
-- dubbed a "meeting" by Russian media -- was organized by the
Coordination Council of the United Opposition of Bashkortostan, an
alliance of eight political parties from both the left and the right,
to protest a massive police operation on Dec. 10, 2004, that resulted
in hundreds of arrests. The protesters claimed to be defending human
rights, but their top demand was Rakhimov's ouster. They also
threatened to break into the republic's presidential and parliamentary
offices.
The protests in Bashkortostan mark a turning point: Western-inspired
"revolutions" have moved from former Soviet republics into Russia. They
are in early stages and are on a regional level rather than national,
but "velvet revolutions" are brewing in the Russian Federation.
Bashkortostan is strategically located between the European and Asian
parts of Russia. The only strategic full-size highway from Russia's
east to its west goes through Bashkortostan, as do several major energy
pipelines from western Siberia to Western Europe. The republic itself
is rich in oil (400 million tons in found deposits), natural gas (55
million tons), coal, iron ore, table salt, manganese, copper, gold and
other minerals -- not to mention the republic's vast forest reserves.
Bashkortostan also is home to several large refineries; the largest
oil-processing center in Russia is in Ufa. Among republics in the
Russian Federation, Bashkortostan ranks eighth in per capita gross
domestic product, sixth in total industrial output, third in total
agriculture production and eighth in foreign trade sales (oil,
chemicals, helicopters and vehicles).
If a "revolution" leads to Bashkortostan's breaking away from Russia,
it would severely disrupt much of Russia's strategic communication,
transportation and energy lines between the country's European heart
and the vast, remote and underpopulated Asian region. The blow would be
felt especially in Russia's energy sector. More importantly, though,
such a break would set a precedent that would be deadly -- for Russia
and its territorial integrity -- if other republics followed.
Bashkortostan's separatist, anti-Moscow tendencies began with former
Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev's perestroika and continued
under former Russian President Boris Yeltsin's government. Though
Russians long have been the dominant ethnic group in the 4
million-strong Bashkortostan, accounting for 39 percent of the
population, Bashkirs (who account for 22 percent of the republic's
population) moved quickly -- either by threat, force or through Bashkir
clan connections -- to remove Russian officials from virtually all
government positions in Bashkortostan. Neither Gorbachev nor Yeltsin
intervened; they allowed moderate anti-Russian nationalists to come to
power in Bashkortostan to avoid the more dangerous threat of radical
nationalists.
Moscow also feared the rise of Islamism in the republic. A majority of
the population there -- Bashkirs and Tatars -- is Muslim. In
particular, Hizb ut-Takhrir, a radical Islamist group preaching
Islamist revolution, founded several cells in Bashkortostan, local
security sources say. Extremist Wahhabist cells were also founded in
the republic; they sent dozens of young recruits to Chechnya to fight
Russian troops.
The Kremlin opted for an alliance with moderate nationalists, like
Rakhimov, who at least has not encouraged the republic to walk away
from Russia -- so far -- and has demanded and received more and more
freedom from Russia's central government in return. Russian President
Vladimir Putin has upheld this alliance, thinking Rakhimov is probably
the best choice Russia has for checking Bashkir separatist tendencies.
A 2004 episode in which Rakhimov and his close associates -- all
Bashkir nationalists, considered moderate -- played a prank on Putin
during his visit to Ufa indicates how little leverage Putin feels he
has over the Bashkir nationalists. While Putin was drinking koumiss, a
traditional Bashkir beverage of fermented mare's milk, one of
Rakhimov's associates pushed him lightly. Putin's face went into his
milk from his eyebrows to his jaw in front of television cameras.
Putin, usually very quick to anger, had to visibly force himself to
control his temper and pretend to enjoy the joke. Sources in the
Kremlin said he was furious but told his entourage that he had to
swallow his pride because he could not afford to break ties or clamp
down on the Bashkir leaders. The Bashkirs' message to Putin was clear:
Know your limits on Bashkortostan.
So when the March 26 protests broke out in Ufa, Moscow continued its
conciliatory line toward the Bashkirs, advising Rakhimov to listen to
the opposition leaders' demands. Rakhimov followed this advice and also
fired the Bashkir deputy general prosecutor in an attempt to assuage
the protesters' concerns. The opposition was not satisfied, however,
and its leaders promised April 5 they would stage a velvet-type
"revolution" emulating Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, to demand
Rakhimov's resignation May 1.
Two days later, 200 to 300 Bashkir opposition members traveled to
Moscow and protested downtown to make their point to Putin: If he does
not want to see more trouble spread from Bashkortostan to the rest of
the Russian Federation -- starting with Moscow -- he had better remove
Rakhimov by decree.
However, it seems the Bashkir opposition will hold new protests
regardless of the Kremlin's policy on the matter. Radical opposition
sources in Ufa said they are greatly encouraged by the timidity of
Putin's response and think -- rightly or wrongly -- it is becoming
possible to extract Bashkortostan from the Russian Federation,
especially with the West providing major political and financial
support.
Opposition sources in Ufa said Western nongovernmental organizations
(NGOs) are actively providing support to the Bashkir opposition -- from
organizing seminars on protest tactics to financing the printing of
opposition propaganda materials to providing other financial help. The
Soros Foundation-funded Open Society Institute, also supported by
Putin's archrival oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, is particularly active
in Bashkortostan. Much of the support from Western NGOs is meant to go
to pro-Western liberal opposition groups in Bashkortostan, but some
money and support ends up going to other opposition groups. All the
opposition groups are united in Bashkortostan, and its Coordination
Council distributes funding to everyone -- from liberals to
nationalists and Islamists, local sources say.
The Bashkir National Front -- a hard-line Bashkir nationalist group and
member of the united opposition -- announced it has rehearsed a plan to
overthrow Rakhimov, conducting staff-command exercises similar to those
conducted by the military. The plan, which will be announced April 16
at a large opposition rally in Ufa, demands Rakhimov's immediate
resignation and that the Bashkir Parliament call new elections in July.
The Provisional Revolutionary Committee, composed of all opposition
groups, will control the republic until the elections. Should Rakhimov
refuse to resign, the opposition will break into the Parliament and
presidential office, kick Rakhimov out and make the Parliament -- where
the opposition has numerous open and secret supporters -- call for new
elections and hand power to the Provincial Revolutionary Committee.
If carrying out this plan leads to violence, it will not stop the
opposition. As Bashkir National Front leader Airat Dilmukhametov told
RIA Novosti: "If there are several people unaccounted for after the
revolution, so be it -- because this is a revolution."
Opposition forces behind the regional revolutionary movement in
Bashkortostan come from a number of sources. They have left any
disagreements and even moral considerations aside to work together,
making unlikely alliances.
Russian liberals and organizations who want to model their society
after the West are keen to see regional presidents allied with the
Kremlin overthrown and a new democratic order put in place -- all in
order to help eventually bring in a pro-Western "revolution" to Moscow.
Increasing numbers of politicians and people from ethnic groups such as
the Tatars and Bashkirs, who do not see themselves as Russian or
pro-Russian, seek more regional autonomy and want to move out from
under the umbrella of Russian influence, with radical nationalists
planning eventual independence.
Ethnic nationalist alliances in Bashkortostan sometimes include
moderate Islamist forces that would like to break away to form an
Islamic state in Bashkortostan independent from Russia. Radical
Islamist groups (like Hizb ut-Takhrir), whose goals are to initiate an
Islamic revolution by masses in Bashkortostan and in other
Muslim-dominated areas, ally themselves with pro-Western and
nationalist opposition groups in hopes of turning the protest movements
to advance their goals.
Drug syndicates in Bashkortostan are a powerful political force, too.
They have an interest in seeing a regional government form over which
they might be able to exert more influence than the current
Russian-backed regional authorities. In fact, the earlier police
operation that inspired the March 26 demonstrations was an effort by
authorities to clamp down on the local drug mafias, Bashkir sources in
local law enforcement and opposition said. The mafias, in return, have
found it useful to ally with local pro-Western and nationalist forces
to overthrow these authorities. They also are financing a good part of
the effort, local sources say.
==================================================================
Russia: Upcoming 'Revolutions' in Non-Ethnic Russian Regions
April 08, 2005 21 06 GMT
Summary
A "revolutionary" spirit inspired by the fall of Kremlin-backed
governments during popular demonstrations in Georgia, Ukraine and
Kyrgyzstan is building within Russia proper with the West's
encouragement. Regional forces are positioning themselves to grab power
in constituent republics of the Russian Federation with significant
non-ethnic Russian populations. If they succeed, it could mark the
beginning of the end of the Russian Federation as a state and country.
Analysis
Well-organized demonstrations in Bashkortostan on March 26 and similar
protests being prepared elsewhere in Russia show that the
Western-encouraged "revolutionary" movements in the former Soviet Union
(FSU) are spilling over into Russia. This trend indicates the first
"revolutions" inside the multiethnic Russian Federation will be on a
regional level in areas with significant non-ethnic Russian
populations. Disparate groups -- pro-Western liberals, anti-Russian
nationalists, Islamists and crime syndicates -- will try to lead these
"revolutions" and use them to their advantage while making temporary
alliances among themselves.
Geopolitically, these potential "revolutions" are more dangerous to
Moscow than the Chechen war. Unless the Kremlin acts quickly to deal
with these movements, Russia's territorial integrity will start
crumbling.
Russian security sources and opposition forces have intelligence that
"revolutions" similar to -- and even larger than -- the current attempt
in Bashkortostan are being prepared in several other Russian regions,
including Bashkortostan's neighbor Tatarstan, Yakutia and Tuva in
Siberia, Karelia in the northwest, Kalmykia in the lower volga region
and several republics in the North Caucasus. Many of these areas are
strategically significant. If any broke away from Moscow after a
Western-inspired "revolution," not only would it set precedent for
breaking the Russian Federation as a state, it would put the rest of
Russia in an untenable position indeed.
Take, for example, Tatarstan and Yakutia. Tatarstan is perhaps the most
important of these potentially breakaway regions. One of the major
economic engines for all of Russia -- because of its developed oil
sector and status as a center of mechanical engineering, among other
things -- Tatarstan presides over the middle volga region and sits
between Moscow and the Urals, the main base of Russian heavy industry.
Together with Bashkortostan, Tatarstan controls Russia's longest
strategic transportation corridor from its eastern borders to Western
Europe. If Tatarstan is cut off from Russia, little oil and few trains
and trucks would be able to make it from Russia's Far East and Siberia
to Europe.
Tatars also are the most politically active and influential ethnic
minority in Russia; only 23 percent of them live in Tatarstan, while
others are in Moscow and other important centers. Many have commanded
top positions in Russian politics, economics and security services.
Tatar oligarchs are second -- though a distant second -- only to Jewish
oligarchs among Russia's elite. The Tatar lobby in the Kremlin and
Tatar mafias in Moscow and the Tatar capital of Kazan are among the
strongest in the country. Tatarstan's current privileges as a republic
within the Russian Federation are the highest and closest to
independence.
Separatism -- and, to a lesser but still important extent, Islamism --
have developed strongly among Tatars since perestroika. Tatarstan
President Mintimer Shaimiev is a moderate nationalist -- Russian
President Vladimir Putin does not dare replace him, despite their
political struggle over Tatarstan's quiet drifting away from Moscow,
because there are forces in Tatarstan more radical than Shaimiev. Those
forces, which are preparing to push for full independence, make
Tatarstan appear ripe to become the next big stage for anti-Kremlin
protests.
Yakutia -- currently called Sakha-Yakutia Republic -- is Russia's
biggest region and occupies one-fifth of the total territory of Russia,
namely a huge chunk of Eastern Siberia. It is Russia's "gold mine" and
also very rich in diamonds. If it breaks away from Russia, Yakutia
would shut out Russia's northwest -- Chukotka, Kamchatka and other
areas -- from the rest of the country, leaving the isolated areas at
the mercy of the United States (Alaska borders this region via the
Bering Strait).
Yakutia saw violent anti-Russian separatist demonstrations under former
Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev, with ethnic Russians killed on the
streets of Yakutsk, the republic's capital, in the late 1980s. The
separatist movement is still very much alive there, and Western
nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have reached Yakutia and are
actively trying to unite the opposition, Yakut government sources say.
The frequency of demonstrations in the Russian Federation's non-ethnic
Russian areas has steadily increased in recent months. Demonstrators in
Ingushetia periodically demand the return of the disputed Prigorodny
District from North Ossetia, an issue which has led to protests against
Ingush President Murat Zyazikov, a close friend of Putin. Protesters in
Karachay-Cherkessia in October 2004 stormed the office of their
President Mustafa Batdyev. North Ossetia has seen protests to call for
the resignation of President Alexander Dzasokhov, whom the public
blames for inaction during the Beslan school crisis in September 2004.
These regions already have some regional autonomy and would have fewer
steps to take to break from Moscow than ethnic Russian areas where
displeasure with the Kremlin's policies and some desire for autonomy
also is growing. Moscow's influence among non-Russian republics is
weaker than elsewhere in Russia, because many locals in non-Russian
regions feel more bound to their local ethnic and religious groups than
to Moscow. It makes sense, then, that "revolutions" under a pro-Western
banner are starting in Russia's ethnic minority areas where central
control already is weak -- the goal is to hit Russia in its weakest
spots so the "revolutions" have a better chance of success.
Clearly, momentum is building to shift regional power away from the
Kremlin. Protesters are emboldened by the success of the recent popular
"revolutions" in nearby FSU republics. Furthermore, protesters no
longer fear reprisals by the Russian government, because Moscow's
response to recent demonstrations has been docile -- with no arrests or
harsh penalties for opposition leaders.
Opposition groups also see support from abroad. U.S. President George
W. Bush promotes democratic reform around the world to advance his
administration's goals for the United States, and Washington has
supported oppositions and immediately recognized the new governments
instituted after "revolutions" in the FSU. Western NGOs such as the
U.S. Republican Party's Freedom House and Soros Foundation affiliates
help opposition forces with planning, organize seminars on how to lead
protests and quickly train activists, assist with printing opposition
publications and give some financial support.
U.S. Protestant missionaries -- intentionally or not, though Russian
authorities suspect the former -- also play an important role in
helping non-Russian ethnic regions break away from Moscow. It is
telling that newly converted local Protestants have become opposition
activists in those regions. Some Bashkir evangelical converts said many
hundreds of them participate in and even spearhead the "revolution"
there. This is a very high number, given that there are roughly 8,000
known converts there. Several hundred activists from the evangelical
community is quite significant, given that in Kyrgyzstan, for example,
it took only 2,000 to 3,000 demonstrators to break into and occupy the
central government offices, de facto displacing the old regime.
By encouraging "revolutions" in Russia's ethnic minority areas, the
Bush administration -- and, to an extent, Europe -- is following the
footsteps of all other powers that have tried to weaken Russia. The
British Empire gave money, arms and military instructors to the
Caucasian and Central Asian tribes rebelling within the Russian Czarist
Empire in the 19th century. The entente did the same for non-Russian
nationalist movements during the October Revolution and in the 1920s,
hoping that ethnic minority areas would break away from Soviet Russia.
Adolf Hitler's Germany formed legions of many thousands of non-ethnic
Russians unhappy with Moscow's rule during its invasion of the Soviet
Union.
The opposition forces preparing "revolutions" in non-ethnic Russian
areas are composed of different forces, ranging from pro-Western
liberals to anti-Russian nationalists (both moderate and radical), to
Islamists (again, both moderate and radical) and crime syndicates.
Though their end goals are different, these groups have made concerted
and thus far successful attempts at uniting in anti-Kremlin movements.
Moderate nationalist opposition sources in Tatarstan say the U.S. NGO
experts working in that region have made the call for unification the
main point every time they talk to opposition activists.
Because these various groups will try to use the "revolutions" to their
own ends while cooperating with others in the process, it seems some
successes in these regional movements are possible -- but there also is
uncertainty about what forces will eventually benefit.
For the time being, it seems pro-Western liberal forces are taking the
lead in Russia's "revolutionary" movements. This is because the other
groups believe they can go along with the liberal-led,
Western-encouraged movements for now, and when the revolution ends, if
their goals are met -- for example, if the nationalists or moderate
Islamists end up in charge of an independent state -- such a state
would be better off being aligned with the West, where it can enjoy
Washington's support, rather than taking what support might be
available from Russia and other neighbors. Indeed, the current openly
pro-Western regimes in Ukraine and Georgia are governed in part by
hardcore nationalists, who often outrank pro-Western liberals.
The demonstrations have yet to result in a substantial shift in
authority in the republics, but the potential is quickly growing. So
far, Russia's conciliatory responses have further encouraged the
opposition. It is clear that the destabilizing force of "revolutions"
is entering Russia proper, and unless Moscow moves quickly to deal with
these well-organized, Western-supported and increasing protests, Russia
could start seeing its territory slip away, piece by piece.
.
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| User: "" |
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| Title: Re: Russia's fate is to become a giagantic Lebanon.... |
11 Apr 2005 06:36:35 PM |
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Well not really, sure there are going to be some changes, but Papa
Putin is playing for keeps, he knows they will come back soon.
LB
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