From strategypage.com:
Sadr's Last Stand?
April 6, 2004: Radical Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr is apparently
trying to take over the government in Shia areas of the country. The
coalition had long feared a move like this, but was hoping it would
happen after Iraqi army and police were again in charge of security,
and Iraqis were running their own government. Sadr, with an arrest
warrant out for him (for murdering rival Shia clerics), has decided to
go for broke now. Sadr's armed followers, the Al Mahdi Army, have
chased away the police (or been joined by them) in many neighborhoods.
Looting has broken out in some areas. Sadr himself has barricaded
himself in a the main mosque in Kufa, south of Baghdad, guarded by
armed supporters. Sadr was long suspected of using violence, and
murder, against opponents. A months long investigation last year,
using Iraqi police and detective, uncovered the details of Sadrs use
of death squads and terrorism against civilians, clerics and
government officials who opposed him. In the last week, members of
these death squads were arrested, and this apparently pushed Sadr to
open rebellion.
Long term, Sadr can't win. He is opposed by the majority of the Shia
clergy, and the Shia people. Sadr is considered a fanatic and
opportunist, trying to capitalize on the reputation of his martyred
(by Saddam in 1999) father. But Sadr has attracted the young Shia
religious fanatics who want to be Iraqi Taliban and turn the country
into an Islamic Republic.
Sadr's other problem is one of numbers and logistics. Reports from
Shia areas where Sadr has followers, often reports only a hundred or
so Sadr people out in the street demonstrating, and being avoided by
other Iraqi Shias in the area. The Iraqi governing council has long
complained of Sadr's armed militia, but were unwilling to push for
disarming them. Thirteen of the 25 members of the governing council
are Shia and they all condemn Sadr's use of violence. For the moment,
Sadr's men can run wild because they outgun the police in many towns
and neighborhoods. But coalition troops are better armed, and there
are large numbers of Iraqi security troops that can be used to help
disarm the al Mahdi militia.
Logistics is the real weakness of Sadr's forces. Coalition troops
control movement between cities with armored vehicles and air power.
Coalition forces control the water, electricity and food supplies.
Hunger, thirst and darkness can be more powerful weapons than bullets.
But another powerful weapon Sadr has to deal with is Iraqi public
opinion. Shia leaders, religious and civil, hostile to Sadr are
talking to the people Sadr is trying to stir up. In a battle for
public opinion, Sadr is at a disadvantage, and this has always been
obvious. Now it's likely to be fatal.
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| User: "Jean Guernon" |
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| Title: Re: Sadr's Last Stand? |
07 Apr 2004 11:03:19 PM |
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Arnold Holbrook a écrit:
From strategypage.com:
Sadr's Last Stand?
April 6, 2004: Radical Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr is apparently
trying to take over the government in Shia areas of the country. The
coalition had long feared a move like this, but was hoping it would
happen after Iraqi army and police were again in charge of security,
and Iraqis were running their own government.
In fact they say they are glad that it happens before then, as indeed it was
bound to happen and better deal with it now that US forces are on the ground
than after the fragile new government will have taken hold.
Of course there are always the vultures in the US and elsewhere who evoke
Vietnam. Damn idiots.
J.
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| User: "TonyZ2001" |
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| Title: Re: Sadr's Last Stand? |
08 Apr 2004 09:38:52 AM |
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Jean Guernon
wrote:
Arnold Holbrook a écrit:
From strategypage.com:
Sadr's Last Stand?
April 6, 2004: Radical Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr is apparently
trying to take over the government in Shia areas of the country. The
coalition had long feared a move like this, but was hoping it would
happen after Iraqi army and police were again in charge of security,
and Iraqis were running their own government.
In fact they say they are glad that it happens before then, as indeed it was
bound to happen and better deal with it now that US forces are on the ground
than after the fragile new government will have taken hold.
Of course there are always the vultures in the US and elsewhere who evoke
Vietnam. Damn idiots.
J.
Exactly.
Tony
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