| Topic: |
Science > Prophecies-Of-Nostradamus |
| User: |
"The Court Fool" |
| Date: |
06 May 2005 10:50:20 AM |
| Object: |
Saudi Arabia: What Will Happen After King Fahd? (Insability and higher oil prices?) |
Saudi Arabia: What Will Happen After King Fahd?
May 03, 2005 19 30 GMT
Summary
Long-ailing Saudi monarch King Fahd bin Abdel-Aziz al Saud appears to
be on his deathbed; Kuwait was rife with rumors May 3 that he had
actually died. When he does pass away, his death will have, to varying
degrees, an unsettling impact on domestic Saudi politics and
international politics. King Fahd's death at a time when the world
perceives the kingdom as facing a threat from al Qaeda further
complicates global geopolitics, even if the internal strife might not
lead to actual instability regarding governance.
Analysis
Saudi monarch King Fahd bin Abdel-Aziz al Saud, who has been ill since
the mid-1990s, probably is close to death May 3. Sources close to the
king's medical team have said he is very ill.
Even though King Fahd's half brother, Crown Prince Abdullah, has
effectively ruled the kingdom for almost a decade now, the royal family
likely is rushing to manage the transition of power. Under both
external pressure from the United States and internal pressure from
militant and nonmilitant opponents at home, the royal family probably
is sorting out the details of the shakeup of the Saudi system that will
follow in the wake of King Fahd's death.
While the internal situation might not pose significant problems -- at
least at this stage -- the Saudis will go out of their way to show that
all is well, given the situation with oil prices and the global
jihadist phenomenon that is intrinsically tied to the kingdom.
The Saudis have brought al Qaeda activity under control with the
continued elimination of key militant figures and cells since June
2004. Despite these significant victories against militants, Riyadh is
far from undoing the global perception that it faces a major jihadist
insurgency at home.
Considering the drubbing the jihadists recently received at the hands
of Saudi security forces, they apparently are not in any shape to take
advantage of the transition phase when the king dies. Given that the
jihadist phenomenon is far from over in the kingdom, al Qaeda could try
to launch an attack. But Saudi security forces would be put on alert
status to deal with any potential trouble.
What further complicates this scenario is that the man currently at the
helm in the kingdom's monarchical system, Abdullah, is half brother to
the king and the remaining key princes at the apex of the political
system. Abdullah also heads the elite Saudi National Guard and is
considered a rival to the king's immediate younger full brother, Prince
Sultan. Sultan not only heads the Ministry of Defense and Aviation but
also is second only to the ailing king in wielding power within the
Sudeiri clan of al Saud.
Sultan is expected to assume the title of crown prince after King Fahd
passes away and Abdullah becomes king. The current crown prince
established a Majlis al-Aila (Family Council) in 2002 to consolidate
his position within the apex leadership by broadening his support base.
The Sudeiris likely are concerned that Abdullah's ascension to throne
and subsequent consolidation of power could weaken the Sudeiris --
Sultan and his two younger brothers, Interior Minister Prince Nayef and
Riyadh Governor Prince Salman -- and thus possibly end their clan's
hegemony within al Saud.
The influential al-Faisal branch (descendants of the late King Faisal
bin Abdel-Aziz al Saud, who was assassinated in 1975) would like a shot
at the throne as well. Faisal's sons Foreign Minister Prince Saud
al-Faisal and former intelligence chief and current Saudi Ambassador to
the United Kingdom Prince Turki al-Faisal enjoy influence and respect.
Abdullah will become king, but the question is who becomes crown
prince. If it is not a Sudeiri then the whole political balance will
shift inside the royal family and thus inside the kingdom.
Exacerbating matters is that in the not-too-distant future, the current
ruling princes' sons will be up for the top positions. The
aforementioned princes are all in their 70s and could die in quick
succession after King Fahd.
Though King Fahd's death might not lead to immediate infighting, the
situation could deteriorate once the old guard is no longer in command
-- when the descendants of the various sons of the dynasty's founder
Abdel-Aziz bin Abdel-Rehman al Saud make their bid for power.
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| User: "" |
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| Title: Re: Saudi Arabia: What Will Happen After King Fahd? (Insability and higher oil prices?) |
08 May 2005 05:50:06 PM |
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Absolutely wrong did the Tsar's son rule after him?
No same thing wiped from the land, and guess which Bin Laden is
overlord?
LB
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