Scientists Predict Major SoCal Quake Within Five Months=20
POSTED: 3:07 pm PST April 1, 2004
UPDATED: 3:27 am PST April 2, 2004
LOS ANGELES -- A state earthquake council has given a qualified =
endorsement to a prediction by a group of scientists who believe that a =
temblor of magnitude-6.4 or greater will occur in the Southern =
California desert sometime in the next five months.=20
The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, a group of =
eight scientists selected by the state Office of Emergency Services, =
said it considers the new prediction by the scientists to be "a =
legitimate approach in earthquake prediction research."=20
Despite its support the panel noted in a report that "the physical basis =
for the prediction has not been substantiated." =20
The team of scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles, =
predict that a quake will occur within a 12,000-square-mile area east of =
Los Angeles by Sept. 5. The zone includes a large swath of the Mojave =
Desert, the Coachella Valley, the Imperial Valley and eastern San Diego =
County.=20
The area was the location of the magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake in =
1992 and the 7.1 Hector Mine quake in 1999.=20
The zone is so seismically active that the council noted in its report =
that the chances of an earthquake of at least magnitude-6.4 occurring =
randomly in the area sometime before the Sept. 5 deadline is about 10 =
percent.=20
The council concluded that the results do not warrant any special public =
policy actions in California. Such actions could include warnings to the =
public or alerts issued to utilities to help them prevent disruptions in =
service.=20
The scientists piqued interest after they forecast the magnitude-6.5 San =
Simeon quake in December and the magnitude-8.1 quake last year off =
Japan's Hokkaido island. In both cases, the group set wide parameters in =
place and time.=20
The team bases its predictions on long chains of small earthquakes =
recorded in the area.=20
"In the vicinity of each such chain, we look backward and see its =
history over the preceding years -- whether our candidate (for an =
earthquake) was preceded by certain seismicity patterns," said lead team =
scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. "If yes, we accept the candidate as a =
short-term precursor and start a nine-month alarm."=20
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