"That would probably lead to early elections. If the elections are
held soon after the declaration of Kosovo's independence, the parties
with nationalist rhetoric, such as the Serbian Radical Party, are very
likely to come to power," Antonic told ISN Security Watch.
The Radicals - whose leader, Vojislav Seselj, is on trial at the UN's
Hague-based war crimes tribunal for atrocities committed in Croatia and
Bosnia and Herzegovina - is the single strongest party in the Serbian
parliament, holding 81 out of the total 250 legislative seats.
According to the latest public opinion polls, the Radicals now enjoy
the support of around 32 per cent of voters in Serbia, while the
second-ranked pro-European Democratic Party, led by President Tadic,
has 11 per cent less.
Antonic said that if the Radicals won power it would most likely
complicate the country's EU membership bid, even though the party
does not officially oppose association with the EU, but does oppose the
extradition of Serbian war criminals to the UN court, which is a major
precondition for EU membership talks to begin.
[And lead to more destabilization in the former Yugoslavia...and even
in the northern Balkans, including Vojvoidina and Translyvannia]
===============================================
Serbia fights to hold on to Kosovo, Montenegro
As Kosovo status talks begin and Montenegro prepares for an
independence referendum, Serbian analysts say the government in
Belgrade could survive losing Montenegro, but losing Kosovo would have
far-reaching consequences.
ISN By Igor Jovanovic in Belgrade for ISN Security Watch (27/11/05)
Serbian lawmakers last week passed a resolution enabling the government
to participate in negotiations on the future status of its
UN-administered southern province of Kosovo, but at the same time
making it clear that an independent Kosovo would be unacceptable.
The 21 November resolution essentially calls for Kosovo, which has a
majority ethnic Albanian population, to be given autonomy, just short
of independence.
Last Thursday, three days after the resolution was adopted by Serbian
parliament, a team was formed to participate in the Kosovo status
negotiations. That team will include Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav
Kostunica, Serbian President Boris Tadic, Foreign Minister Vuk
Draskovic of Serbia and Montenegro, and Thomas Fleiner, the director of
Switzerland's Federalism Institute, who will serve as an advisor to
the team.
The Serbian resolution is in direct opposition to a resolution adopted
by the Kosovo Assembly a few days earlier, which states that
independence is the only option for the province.
The status talks started on 21 November with the arrival of UN special
envoy Martti Ahtisaari in Pristina, the capital of Kosovo.
The Serbia resolution advocates a compromise solution for Kosovo, but
says it "will proclaim any imposed solution illegitimate, illegal,
and invalid" - a warning to the international community not to
attempt to force the independence issue unilaterally. The
representatives also advocated direct negotiations with the Albanian
side, another veiled rejection of international interference.
Prime Minister Kostunica told lawmakers that a solution for Kosovo's
status must guarantee the preservation of Serbia and Montenegro's
sovereignty as well as essential autonomy for Kosovar Albanians.
Kostunica said Serbia was "not only defending its national interest,
but also the principles on which today's international law is
based".
All caucuses except the Democratic Party, led by Serbian President
Tadic, voted for the resolution. However, although the Democrats
disagreed with some aspects of the resolution, they concurred that
independence for Kosovo was unacceptable.
Tadic proposed that Kosovo remain part of Serbia, but be divided into
two entities, one Serb and one Albanian. The proposal, which was first
unveiled by Tadic during his recent visit to Russia, has been rejected
by ethnic Albanian leaders.
The two entities would have both joint and separate institutions
similar to the way Bosnia and Herzegovina was divided up by the Dayton
Peace Agreement, which ended the 1992-1995 war there. That model, which
the international community in Bosnia is now hoping to revise, has
proven to be politically complicated, bureaucratically inefficient, and
extremely expensive.
The planned Serb entity of Kosovo would have institutional links to
Belgrade in areas such as education, health, and some forms of
security. Tadic's associates said the Serbian president's proposal
focused more on concrete details, while the existing resolution was
centered around a vague notion of "more than autonomy, less than
independence" for Kosovo.
But Tadic's idea of dividing up Kosovo has been rejected out of hand
by the US and the EU, though Russia and China oppose full independence
for Kosovo and are more likely to accept such a plan.
The head of the Coordinating Center for Kosovo, Sanda Raskovic-Ivic,
who is also the vice-president of Kostunica's Democratic Party of
Serbia, said the 21 November parliamentary resolution on Kosovo should
not be taken lightly.
Raskovic-Ivic told the Belgrade daily Politika that the Serbian side
would insist on "the point that Serbia's borders cannot be
changed". But she also stressed that "more than autonomy, less than
independence" was a compromise between two extremes - the Kosovar
Albanian "independence or nothing" and the Serbian "centralism or
nothing".
According to the resolution, the ethnic Albanians (who have the overall
majority in the province) will be offered judicial, executive, and
legislative power in areas where they are the majority, while the same
principle would apply to Kosovo Serbs in those municipalities where
they are in the majority.
"There is no politician in Serbia who would accept [...] independence
for Kosovo, even if it were conditional," Raskovic-Ivic said.
Cedomir Antic, political advisor to Serbian Deputy Prime Minister
Miroljub Labus, who is also the leader of the G17 Plus party - the
second-largest party in Serbia's ruling coalition - said any kind of
independence for Kosovo would rule out any Serbian financial aid for
the province.
"This would lead to a new displacement of Serbs from Kosovo," Antic
told ISN Security Watch. Some 100,000 Serbs remain in Kosovo, while
around 200,000 fled the province after 1999 when international security
forces took control.
In the meantime, EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn has urged
Belgrade to play "a constructive role" in the resolution of the
Kosovo's status.
In an attempt to assuage Belgrade's fears that Serbia's conduct
during the Kosovo status talks could determine the outcome of the
country's EU membership bid, EU officials said the two issues were
not directly related.
EU Foreign and Security Policy High Representative Javier Solana told
Belgrade media in October he did not believe that the Kosovo status
talks would have any effect on Serbia's Stabilization and Association
Agreement (SAA) talks with Brussels - the first steps towards EU
membership for Western Balkan nations.
"I do not think the negotiations on Kosovo's future status should
be a problem. Those are two separate processes. One refers to relations
between Serbia and Montenegro and the EU, and the other is linked to
processes whose direction is set not by the EU, but by the UN, even
though it is important for us," Solana said.
According to opinion polls conducted by Media Gallup in late September,
35 per cent of Serbian citizens believe that the best solution for
Kosovo is autonomy within the existing borders.
Seven per cent of those polled said the best solution would be to
create a Kosovo Republic modeled along the lines of the union of Serbia
and Montenegro, while 12 per cent favored full Serbian control over
Kosovo - the pre-1999 set up. Only 2 per cent advocated the
preservation of the current state as a UN-administered province.
Kosovo, Montenegro slipping away
As the debate over Kosovo's status intensifies, Montenegro is also
threatening to leave the state union with Serbia and declare
independence.
Serbia's ruling parties are largely united over the need to preserve
the union with Montenegro. Only G17 Plus advocates an independent
Serbia without Montenegro, but it has reached a consensus with its
coalition partners to create a strategy for maintaining the common
state.
But Montenegro is slipping away. Montenegrin President Filip Vujanovic
said in early October that a referendum on the independence of
Montenegro, the smaller of the union's two republics, would not be
postponed and would be held between February and April 2006.
Serbian Democratic Party spokesman Andreja Mladenovic told ISN Security
Watch that his party advocated the preservation of the state union,
primarily because the EU had clearly said "this is the quickest way
to obtain EU membership".
"But if the people of Montenegro choose independence and if the
referendum is held according to international standards, the Serbian
government will respect the referendum's results," Mladenovic said.
Branko Radujko, advisor to the Serbian president, told ISN Security
Watch that Tadic also advocated the preservation of the common state as
the fastest track to EU membership.
Serbia and Montenegro Foreign Minister Draskovic, who is also the
leader of one of the ruling Serbian parties, the Serbian Renewal
Movement (SPO), said he would do everything in his power to save the
state union.
However, G17 Plus' Cedomir Antic says Serbia is "a hostage" in
the union with the much smaller Montenegro, which - even though it
contributes only 5 per cent of the joint budget - has the right to veto
all decisions in the common state.
Earlier this month, the European Commission cautioned Montenegro
against making any unilateral moves as it prepares for its independence
referendum.
The EU has warned Montenegro against embarking on any moves towards an
independence referendum until a broad consensus was reached on how it
should be conducted. Otherwise, it said, the international community
would not accept the outcome.
"The issue should be dealt with in a way that preserves internal and
regional stability and is compatible with the continuing progress of
Serbia and Montenegro towards membership," the EU said in a
statement.
Brussels in 2003 acknowledged that Montenegro had the right to organize
a referendum on independence. However, the EU wants the strongly
pro-independence government of Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic to hash
out an agreement with Montenegrin parties that oppose the move, with
Serbia, and with the international community.
According to a September survey conducted by the Podgorica-based
nongovernmental Center for Democracy, independence is still the favored
solution in Montenegro, with 41.6 per cent of respondents in favor of
independence and 34.5 per cent opposed.
However, despite the disagreements, Antic believes that the possible
separation of Montenegro "will go down absolutely peacefully" as
far as the Serbian side is concerned.
Belgrade political analyst Slobodan Antonic said the Serbian government
would easily survive a possible split with Montenegro, but added that
no Serbian government could survive Kosovo's independence.
"That would probably lead to early elections. If the elections are
held soon after the declaration of Kosovo's independence, the parties
with nationalist rhetoric, such as the Serbian Radical Party, are very
likely to come to power," Antonic told ISN Security Watch.
The Radicals - whose leader, Vojislav Seselj, is on trial at the UN's
Hague-based war crimes tribunal for atrocities committed in Croatia and
Bosnia and Herzegovina - is the single strongest party in the Serbian
parliament, holding 81 out of the total 250 legislative seats.
According to the latest public opinion polls, the Radicals now enjoy
the support of around 32 per cent of voters in Serbia, while the
second-ranked pro-European Democratic Party, led by President Tadic,
has 11 per cent less.
Antonic said that if the Radicals won power it would most likely
complicate the country's EU membership bid, even though the party
does not officially oppose association with the EU, but does oppose the
extradition of Serbian war criminals to the UN court, which is a major
precondition for EU membership talks to begin.
Igor Jovanovic is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in
Serbia. He has worked with Serbia's Beta News Agency since 1998 and
is the former News Editor for Belgrade's Radio Index. He also
contributes to Transitions Online magazine and the Southeast European
Times.
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