Serbia's Parliamentary Elections: A Return to Nationalism?

December 27, 2003 1802 GMT

Summary

Serbs will vote for a new Parliament on Dec. 28, and an
ultra-nationalist party appears poised to make a significant showing
in the new government.

The election outcome will determine whether
Serbia continues down the path of pro-Western reform or moves away
from cooperation with Europe and the United States on economic,
political and security issues.

Analysis

Serbia has called parliamentary elections for Dec. 28 -- a year ahead
of schedule. The country is in the midst of a deepening political
crisis: Since the assassination of Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic in
March, the coalition government led by the Democratic Opposition of
Serbia (DOS) has become increasingly fractured, and three successive
elections for the largely ceremonial post of president failed to
attract sufficient voter turnout to be validated. Moreover, the
country has been effectively without a government since mid-November,
when Parliament was dissolved because it was deadlocked and
effectively unable to govern.

The parliamentary elections will be closely watched by both Europe and
the United States, which have vested economic and political interests
in the country's course. There are indications that Serbian voters are
swinging again toward ultra-nationalism; if this plays out in the
upcoming polls, it will be key to determining Serbia's willingness and
ability to continue working with Brussels and Washington.

Judging from the string of failed presidential elections, the mood in
Serbia is bleak. Voters' high expectations following the fall of
former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and the rise of a
reformist government crumbled, a Stratfor source living in Serbia
says, amid ongoing economic hardships and the government's failure to
cleanse itself of crime and corruption. Organized crime still
flourishes,

despite efforts to crack down following Djindjic's
assassination.

The perceived inability of elected leaders to implement economic and
political reforms have taken their toll on election participation. The
most recent presidential poll drew only 38 percent of eligible voters,
rather than the 50 percent needed for the results to be valid.

Those results, however, provide important indicators of how the
parliamentary elections might play out.

In the Nov. 16 election, ultra-nationalist Tomislav Nikolic -- whose
Serbian Radical Party is considered more extreme than that of
Milosevic -- won 46 percent of the vote, while DOS candidate Dragoljub
Micunovic, who was considered the favorite heading into the polls,
drew only 36 percent. Nikolic, who previously served as deputy prime
minister under Milosevic, opposes pro-Western forces within Serbia and
pledged during his presidential campaign that, if elected, he would
not cooperate with international war crimes tribunal at The Hague.
This is not surprising, considering that the current leader of the
Radical Party, Vojislav Seselj, is currently awaiting trial for war
crimes at The Hague.

A source living in Serbia says that some of the Radical Party's
popularity can be attributed to the fact that its candidates have
reached out actively to voters by campaigning throughout the country,
rather than relying solely on advertising and media coverage. The
party also has appealed to workers in many state-supported industries
by denouncing pro-Western economic reforms that would prompt layoffs.
The mood of disappointment with the reformist government and apathy
within Serbia likely are boosting the party's standing as well.

Polls conducted over the last few weeks by research companies in
Serbia indicate that the Radical Party is likely to capture the
greatest number of votes in the Dec. 28 parliamentary elections,
though no single party is expected to win an outright majority.
Sources say the Radicals also lack sufficient allies to cobble
together a coalition. There is some chance that the pro-Western
parties could be able to form a coalition government, though how long
it might hold together is unclear.

If the pro-reform parties are able to form a governing coalition, the
Radical Party would still be able to hamper Serbia's pro-Western
movement -- albeit from the outside.