Shevardnadze Gone; Conflicts Ahead

November 24, 2003 0155 GMT

Summary

With Georgian President Shevardnadze's resignation, a radical,
pro-U.S. opposition has come to power in Tbilisi. This may open new
opportunities for the United States in the Caucasus, but it also
likely paves the way for greater conflict and disintegration in
Georgia. Regions with de facto independence and pro-Moscow political
leaders are prepared to pick a fight with the new leadership in the
capital. Since neither side enjoys majority support, chaos and
violence will likely prevail, endangering Russia's southern flank and
U.S. plans to pump Caspian oil westward.

Analysis

In the presence of opposition leaders, Georgian President Eduard
Shevardnadze signed a letter of resignation on Nov. 23, sparking a
celebration by thousands of opposition supporters in downtown Tbilisi.
The resignation letter came just after Shevardnadze met with
opposition leaders in the presidential palace, for talks mediated by
Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov. Ivanov left before the president
resigned, saying his intermediary function had been fulfilled and that
Georgia's political forces now should decide the fate of the nation.
The pro-U.S. radical opposition, led by the Saakashvili National
Movement (SNM), is now in control of Tblisi.

Stratfor sources in the Russian Security Council say that President
Vladimir Putin -- always reluctant to support Shevardnadze because of
his consistent anti-Russian policies -- decided to support him three
weeks ago, when the crisis over the apparently rigged elections
erupted. However, Putin abandoned Shevardnadze when he saw
Washington's firm determination to replace him with an even more
pro-U.S. president. Sources add that -- to mend the rift with
Washington over Georgia -- Putin sent his foreign minister on Nov. 22
to transfer power from Shevardnadze. However, we do not believe that
Moscow is giving up on Georgia: Its interests there are too powerful,
including the necessity to secure some control over Georgia to finally
win Russia's war in neighboring Chechnya. We think that Putin sent his
minister to try to gain some leverage in the new Georgian government,
rather than because the United States is playing the role of arbiter
in the region.

Georgia's internal conflict is likely far from over. Conflict will
advance to a new stage: confrontations between a pro-U.S. government
in Tbilisi and pro-Russian regions. Several armed conflicts likely
will erupt simultaneously -- mostly low-intensity and guerrilla-like
-- but some major offensives also are likely.

For example, Ajara, a pro-Russian region on the Turkish border, never
will subordinate itself to the new leadership (at least, not without a
coup in Ajara -- but its current leader is too powerful for that). The
region has just declared it will be closing all borders and contacts
with the SNM-led government. It also has declared emergency rule on
its territory, saying that it has intelligence that the SNM is
planning to deploy military forces to take control of the region,
local TV Imedi reports. Ajaran leader Aslan Abashidze says that Ajara
can defend itself, adding, "We do not want the force to come to power
that would be equal to Nazism or Bolshevism; these people [the SNM
leaders] have already shamelessly threatened everybody." This suggests
that tensions in Georgia are already escalating, particularly now that
a conflict between Tblisi's pro-American SNM and pro-Russian Ajara
becomes possible.

Also, a new war is likely to occur soon between the secessionist
Abkhazia region and the central government, since the SNM seeks the
forcible return of Abkhazia. Abkhaz army and police were put on the
highest level of alert on Nov. 23 after hearing the news of the
SNM-led coalition's rise to power. War between a pro-American Tbilisi
and pro-Russian Abkhazia would not be trivial.

Another possible conflict is between the new government and South
Ossetia, one more pro-Russian region that does not want Tbilisi to
re-exert control over it. On Nov. 23, the leader of South Ossetia
declared emergency rule and ordered the reinforcement of its borders
to protect against Tbilisi's troops.

Elsewhere, in some provinces where the SNM lacks support, Georgia is
torn apart by multisided and deep rivalries. Former Georgian President
Zviad Gamsakhurdia's supporters -- outlawed since 1992 -- remain
armed. They are rising from the underground and might decide that now
is the time to grab their piece of Georgia's pie. On Nov. 23,
Gamsakhurdia's former finance minister, Guram Absandze, and his armed
supporters occupied the regional government premises in
Samegrelo-Upper Svanetia, declaring himself the new governor. He
encountered no resistance. Expect to see more self-declared rulers in
weeks to come.

With those and other conflicts on the horizon, Georgia probably is
marching toward violent disintegration. There may be a pro-U.S.
president in Tbilisi, but he will not control much beyond the capital.

Furthermore, the new presidential elections, possibly to be held
within 45 days, are likely to add fuel to Georgia's internal conflict.
No potential candidate -- including the now victorious SNM leader
Saakashvili -- appears to have more than 20 percent of voter support.
New tensions can be expected when the election results are announced.

Georgia's current events have geopolitical significance beyond
possible internal violence. The rise of a strongly pro-U.S. portion of
the opposition is a significant geopolitical victory for Washington.
On the other hand, it is yet one more defeat in the Caucasus for a
weakened Moscow. Shevardnadze was deeply unpopular, but he kept a
majority of the country together. The emerging leaders are willing to
do much more for Washington than Shevardnadze was, but they do not now
enjoy the level of support he once had because they represent only one
wing of the opposition.

The probable acceleration of Georgia's disintegration will endanger
Russia's southern flank -- and U.S. plans to pump Caspian oil
westward.