The Bush 111999 Prophecy - Presidential Candidates as Prophets ?
Governor George W. Bush, "A Distinctly American Internationalism,"
http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/bush/wspeech.htm
11/19/99
It is an honor to be with you at the Reagan Library. Thank you Secretary
Shultz for your decades of service to America - and for your kindness and
counsel over the last several months. And thank you Mrs. Reagan for this
invitation - and for your example of loyalty and love and courage.
My wife Laura says that behind every great man there is a surprised woman.
But, Mrs. Reagan, you were never surprised by the greatness of your husband.
You believed it from the start. And now the rest of the world sees him as
you always have - as a hero in the American story. A story in which a single
individual can shape history. A story in which evil is real, but courage and
decency triumph.
We live in the nation President Reagan restored, and the world he helped to
save. A world of nations reunited and tyrants humbled. A world of prisoners
released and exiles come home. And today there is a prayer shared by free
people everywhere: God bless you, Ronald Reagan.
Two months ago, at the Citadel in South Carolina, I talked about American
defense. This must be the first focus of a president, because it is his
first duty to the Constitution. Even in this time of pride and promise,
America has determined enemies, who hate our values and resent our success -
terrorists and crime syndicates and drug cartels and unbalanced dictators.
The Empire has passed, but evil remains.
We must protect our homeland and our allies against missiles and terror and
blackmail.
We must restore the morale of our military - squandered by shrinking
resources and multiplying missions - with better training, better treatment
and better pay.
And we must master the new technology of war - to extend our peaceful
influence, not just across the world, but across the years.
In the defense of our nation, a president must be a clear-eyed realist.
There are limits to the smiles and scowls of diplomacy. Armies and missiles
are not stopped by stiff notes of condemnation. They are held in check by
strength and purpose and the promise of swift punishment.
But there is more to say, because military power is not the final measure of
might. Our realism must make a place for the human spirit.
This spirit, in our time, has caused dictators to fear and empires to fall.
And it has left an honor roll of courage and idealism: Scharansky, Havel,
Walesa, Mandela. The most powerful force in the world is not a weapon or a
nation but a truth: that we are spiritual beings, and that freedom is "the
soul's right to breathe."
In the dark days of 1941 - the low point of our modern epic - there were
about a dozen democracies left on the planet. Entering a new century, there
are nearly 120. There is a direction in events, a current in our times.
"Depend on it," said Edmund Burke. "The lovers of freedom will be free."
America cherishes that freedom, but we do not own it. We value the elegant
structures of our own democracy - but realize that, in other societies, the
architecture will vary. We propose our principles, we must not impose our
culture.
Yet the basic principles of human freedom and dignity are universal. People
should be able to say what they think. Worship as they wish. Elect those who
govern them. These ideals have proven their power on every continent. In
former colonies -- and the nations that ruled them. Among the allies of
World War II - and the countries they vanquished. And these ideals are
equally valid north of the 38th parallel. They are just as true in the Pearl
River Delta. They remain true 90 miles from our shores, on an island prison,
ruled by a revolutionary relic.
Some have tried to pose a choice between American ideals and American
interests-between who we are and how we act. But the choice is false.
America, by decision and destiny, promotes political freedom - and gains the
most when democracy advances. America believes in free markets and free
trade - and benefits most when markets are opened. America is a peaceful
power - and gains the greatest dividend from democratic stability. Precisely
because we have no territorial objectives, our gains are not measured in the
losses of others. They are counted in the conflicts we avert, the prosperity
we share and the peace we extend.
Sometimes this balance takes time to achieve - and requires us to deal with
nations that do not share our values. Sometimes the defenders of freedom
must show patience as well as resolution. But that patience comes of
confidence, not compromise. We believe, with Alexander Hamilton, that the
"spirit of commerce" has a tendency to "soften the manners of men." We
believe, with George Washington, that "Liberty, when it begins to take root,
is a plant of rapid growth." And we firmly believe our nation is on the
right side of history - the side of man's dignity and God's justice.
Few nations have been given the advantages and opportunities of our own. Few
have been more powerful as a country, or more successful as a cause. But
there are risks, even for the powerful. "I have many reasons to be
optimistic," said Pericles in the golden age of Athens. "Indeed, I am more
afraid of our own blunders than of the enemy's devices."
America's first temptation is withdrawal - to build a proud tower of
protectionism and isolation.
In a world that depends on America to reconcile old rivals and balance
ancient ambitions, this is the shortcut to chaos. It is an approach that
abandons our allies, and our ideals. The vacuum left by America's retreat
would invite challenges to our power. And the result, in the long run, would
be a stagnant America and a savage world.
American foreign policy cannot be founded on fear. Fear that American
workers can't compete. Fear that America will corrupt the world - or be
corrupted by it. This fear has no place in the party of Reagan, or in the
party of Truman. In times of peril, our nation did not shrink from
leadership. At this moment of opportunity, I have no intention of betraying
American interests, American obligations and American honor.
America's second temptation is drift - for our nation to move from crisis to
crisis like a cork in a current.
Unless a president sets his own priorities, his priorities will be set by
others - by adversaries, or the crisis of the moment, live on CNN. American
policy can become random and reactive - untethered to the interests of our
country.
America must be involved in the world. But that does not mean our military
is the answer to every difficult foreign policy situation - a substitute for
strategy. American internationalism should not mean action without vision,
activity without priority, and missions without end - an approach that
squanders American will and drains American energy.
American foreign policy must be more than the management of crisis. It must
have a great and guiding goal: to turn this time of American influence into
generations of democratic peace.
This is accomplished by concentrating on enduring national interests. And
these are my priorities. An American president should work with our strong
democratic allies in Europe and Asia to extend the peace. He should promote
a fully democratic Western Hemisphere, bound together by free trade. He
should defend America's interests in the Persian Gulf and advance peace in
the Middle East, based upon a secure Israel. He must check the contagious
spread of weapons of mass destruction, and the means to deliver them. He
must lead toward a world that trades in freedom. And he must pursue all
these goals with focus, patience and strength.
I will address these responsibilities as this campaign continues. To each, I
bring the same approach: A distinctly American internationalism. Idealism,
without illusions. Confidence, without conceit. Realism, in the service of
American ideals.
Today I want to talk about Europe and Asia. the world's strategic heartland.
our greatest priority. Home of long-time allies, and looming rivals. Behind
the United States, Eurasia has the next six largest economies. The next six
largest military budgets.
The Eurasian landmass, in our century, has seen the indignities of
colonialism and the excesses of nationalism. Its people have been sacrificed
to brutal wars and totalitarian ambitions. America has discovered, again and
again, that our history is inseparable from their tragedy. And we are
rediscovering that our interests are served by their success.
In this immense region, we are guided, not by an ambition, but by a vision.
A vision in which no great power, or coalition of great powers, dominates or
endangers our friends. In which America encourages stability from a position
of strength. A vision in which people and capital and information can move
freely, creating bonds of progress, ties of culture and momentum toward
democracy.
This is different from the trumpet call of the Cold War. We are no longer
fighting a great enemy, we are asserting a great principle: that the talents
and dreams of average people - their warm human hopes and loves - should be
rewarded by freedom and protected by peace. We are defending the nobility of
normal lives, lived in obedience to God and conscience, not to government.
The challenge comes because two of Eurasia's greatest powers - China and
Russia - are powers in transition. And it is difficult to know their
intentions when they do not know their own futures. If they become America's
friends, that friendship will steady the world. But if not, the peace we
seek may not be found.
China, in particular, has taken different shapes in different eyes at
different times. An empire to be divided. A door to be opened. A model of
collective conformity. A diplomatic card to be played. One year, it is said
to be run by "the butchers of Beijing." A few years later, the same
administration pronounces it a "strategic partner."
We must see China clearly -- not through the filters of posturing and
partisanship. China is rising, and that is inevitable. Here, our interests
are plain: We welcome a free and prosperous China. We predict no conflict.
We intend no threat. And there are areas where we must try to cooperate:
preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction. attaining peace on the
Korean peninsula.
Yet the conduct of China's government can be alarming abroad, and appalling
at home. Beijing has been investing its growing wealth in strategic nuclear
weapons... new ballistic missiles. a blue-water navy and a long-range
airforce. It is an espionage threat to our country. Meanwhile, the State
Department has reported that "all public dissent against the party and
government [has been] effectively silenced" - a tragic achievement in a
nation of 1.2 billion people. China's government is an enemy of religious
freedom and a sponsor of forced abortion - policies without reason and
without mercy.
All of these facts must be squarely faced. China is a competitor, not a
strategic partner. We must deal with China without ill-will - but without
illusions.
By the same token, that regime must have no illusions about American power
and purpose. As Dean Rusk observed during the Cold War, "It is not healthy
for a regime ... to incur, by their lawlessness and aggressive conduct, the
implacable opposition of the American people."
We must show American power and purpose in strong support for our Asian
friends and allies - for democratic South Korea across the Yellow Sea... for
democratic Japan and the Philippines across the China seas ... for
democratic Australia and Thailand. This means keeping our pledge to deter
aggression against the Republic of Korea, and strengthening security ties
with Japan. This means expanding theater missile defenses among our allies.
And this means honoring our promises to the people of Taiwan. We do not deny
there is one China. But we deny the right of Beijing to impose their rule on
a free people. As I've said before, we will help Taiwan to defend itself.
The greatest threats to peace come when democratic forces are weak and
disunited. Right now, America has many important bilateral alliances in
Asia. We should work toward a day when the fellowship of free Pacific
nations is as strong and united as our Atlantic Partnership. If I am
president, China will find itself respected as a great power, but in a
region of strong democratic alliances. It will be unthreatened, but not
unchecked.
China will find in America a confident and willing trade partner. And with
trade comes our standing invitation into
the world of economic freedom.
China's entry into the World Trade Organization is welcome, and this should
open the door for Taiwan as well. But given China's poor record in honoring
agreements, it will take a strong administration to hold them to their word.
If I am president, China will know that America's values are always part of
America's agenda. Our advocacy of human freedom is not a formality of
diplomacy, it is a fundamental commitment of our country. It is the source
of our confidence that communism, in every form, has seen its day.
And I view free trade as an important ally in what Ronald Reagan called "a
forward strategy for freedom." The case for trade is not just monetary, but
moral. Economic freedom creates habits of liberty. And habits of liberty
create expectations of democracy. There are no guarantees, but there are
good examples, from Chile to Taiwan. Trade freely with China, and time is on
our side.
Russia stands as another reminder that a world increasingly at peace is also
a world in transition. Here, too, patience is needed - patience,
consistency, and a principled reliance on democratic forces.
In the breadth of its land, the talent and courage of its people, the wealth
of its resources, and the reach of its weapons, Russia is a great power, and
must always be treated as such. Few people have suffered more in this
century. And though we trust the worst is behind them, their troubles are
not over. This past decade, for Russia, has been an epic of deliverance and
disappointment.
Our first order of business is the national security of our nation - and
here both Russia and the United States face a changed world. Instead of
confronting each other, we confront the legacy of a dead ideological
rivalry -- thousands of nuclear weapons, which, in the case of Russia, may
not be secure. And together we also face an emerging threat - from rogue
nations, nuclear theft and accidental launch. All this requires nothing
short of a new strategic relationship to protect the peace of the world.
We can hope that the new Russian Duma will ratify START II, as we have done.
But this is not our most pressing challenge. The greater problem was first
addressed in 1991 by Senator Lugar and Senator Sam Nunn. In an act of
foresight and statesmanship, they realized that existing Russian nuclear
facilities were in danger of being compromised. Under the Nunn-Lugar
program, security at many Russian nuclear facilities has been improved and
warheads have been destroyed.
Even so, the Energy Department warns us that our estimates of Russian
nuclear stockpiles could be off by as much as 30 percent. In other words, a
great deal of Russian nuclear material cannot be accounted for. The next
president must press for an accurate inventory of all this material. And we
must do more. I'll ask the Congress to increase substantially our assistance
to dismantle as many of Russia's weapons as possible, as quickly as
possible.
We will still, however, need missile defense systems - both theater and
national. If I am commander-in-chief, we will develop and deploy them.
Under the mutual threat of rogue nations, there is a real possibility the
Russians could join with us and our friends and allies to cooperate on
missile defense systems. But there is a condition. Russia must break its
dangerous habit of proliferation.
In the hard work of halting proliferation, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
is not the answer. I've said that our nation should continue its moratorium
on testing. Yet far more important is to constrict the supply of nuclear
materials and the means to deliver them - by making this a priority with
Russia and China. Our nation must cut off the demand for nuclear weapons -
by addressing the security concerns of those who renounce these weapons. And
our nation must diminish the evil attraction of these weapons for rogue
states - by rendering them useless with missile defense. The Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty does nothing to gain these goals. It does not stop
proliferation, especially to renegade regimes. It is not verifiable. It is
not enforceable. And it would stop us from ensuring the safety and
reliability of our nation's deterrent, should the need arise. On these
crucial matters, it offers only words and false hopes and high intentions -
with no guarantees whatever. We can fight the spread of nuclear weapons, but
we cannot wish them away with unwise treaties.
Dealing with Russia on essential issues will be far easier if we are dealing
with a democratic and free Russia. Our goal is to promote, not only the
appearance of democracy in Russia, but the structures, spirit, and reality
of democracy. This is clearly not done by focusing our aid and attention on
a corrupt and favored elite. Real change in Russia - as in China - will come
not from above, but from below. From a rising class of entrepreneurs and
business people. From new leaders in Russia's regions who will build a new
Russian state, where power is shared, not controlled. Our assistance,
investments and loans should go directly to the Russian people, not to
enrich the bank accounts of corrupt officials.
America should reach out to a new generation of Russians through educational
exchanges and programs to support the rule of law and a civil society. And
the Russian people, next month, must be given a free and fair choice in
their election. We cannot buy reform for Russia, but we can be Russia's ally
in self-reform.
Even as we support Russian reform, we cannot excuse Russian brutality. When
the Russian government attacks civilians - killing women and children,
leaving orphans and refugees - it can no longer expect aid from
international lending institutions. The Russian government will discover
that it cannot build a stable and unified nation on the ruins of human
rights. That it cannot learn the lessons of democracy from the textbook of
tyranny. We want to cooperate with Russia on its concern with terrorism, but
that is impossible unless Moscow operates with civilized self-restraint.
Just as we do not want Russia to descend into cruelty, we do not want it to
return to imperialism. Russia does have interests with its newly independent
neighbors. But those interests must be expressed in commerce and diplomacy -
not coercion and domination. A return to Russian imperialism would endanger
both Russian democracy and the states on Russia's borders. The United States
should actively support the nations of the Baltics, the Caucasus and Central
Asia, along with Ukraine, by promoting regional peace and economic
development, and opening links to the wider world.
Often overlooked in our strategic calculations is that great land that rests
at the south of Eurasia. This coming century will see democratic India's
arrival as a force in the world. A vast population, before long the world's
most populous nation. A changing economy, in which 3 of its 5 wealthiest
citizens are software entrepreneurs.
India is now debating its future and its strategic path, and the United
States must pay it more attention. We should establish more trade and
investment with India as it opens to the world. And we should work with the
Indian government, ensuring it is a force for stability and security in
Asia. This should not undermine our longstanding relationship with Pakistan,
which remains crucial to the peace of the region.
All our goals in Eurasia will depend on America strengthening the alliances
that sustain our influence-in Europe and East Asia and the Middle East.
Alliances are not just for crises -- summoned into action when the fire bell
sounds. They are sustained by contact and trust. The Gulf War coalition, for
example, was raised on the foundation of a president's vision and effort and
integrity. Never again should an American president spend nine days in
China, and not even bother to stop in Tokyo or Seoul or Manila. Never again
should an American president fall silent when China criticizes our security
ties with Japan.
For NATO to be strong, cohesive and active, the President must give it
consistent direction: on the alliance's purpose; on Europe's need to invest
more in defense capabilities; and, when necessary, in military conflict.
To be relied upon when they are needed, our allies must be respected when
they are not.
We have partners, not satellites. Our goal is a fellowship of strong, not
weak, nations. And this requires both more American consultation and more
American leadership. The United States needs its European allies, as well as
friends in other regions, to help us with security challenges as they arise.
For our allies, sharing the enormous opportunities of Eurasia also means
sharing the burdens and risks of sustaining the peace. The support of
friends allows America to reserve its power and will for the vital interests
we share.
Likewise, international organizations can serve the cause of peace. I will
never place U.S. troops under U.N. command - but the U.N. can help in
weapons inspections, peacekeeping and humanitarian efforts. If I am
president, America will pay its dues - but only if the U.N.'s bureaucracy is
reformed, and our disproportionate share of its costs is reduced.
There must also be reform of international financial institutions - the
World Bank and the IMF. They can be a source of stability in economic
crisis. But they should not impose austerity, bailing out bankers while
impoverishing a middle class. They should not prop up failed and corrupt
financial systems. These organizations should encourage the basics of
economic growth and free markets. Spreading the rule of law and wise budget
practices. Promoting sound banking laws and accounting rules. Most of all,
these institutions themselves must be more transparent and accountable.
All the aims I've described today are important. But they are not imperial.
America has never been an empire. We may be the only great power in history
that had the chance, and refused - preferring greatness to power and justice
to glory.
We are a nation that helped defeat Germany in 1945 - which had launched a
war costing 55 million lives. Less than five years later we launched an
airlift to save the people of Berlin from starvation and tyranny. And a
generation of Germans remember the "raisin bombers" that dropped candy and
raisins for children.
We are a nation that defeated Japan - then distributed food, wrote a
constitution, encouraged labor unions and gave women the right to vote.
Japanese who expected retribution received mercy instead. Over the entrance
of one American army camp, there was a banner that read, "Be neat. Be
soldierly. Be proud. Behave. Be American."
No one questioned what those words meant: "Be American." They meant we were
humble in victory. That we were liberators, not conquerors. And when
American soldiers hugged the survivors of death camps, and shared their
tears, and welcomed them back from a nightmare world, our country was
confirmed in its calling.
The duties of our day are different. But the values of our nation do not
change. Let us reject the blinders of isolationism, just as we refuse the
crown of empire. Let us not dominate others with our power - or betray them
with our indifference. And let us have an American foreign policy that
reflects American character. The modesty of true strength. The humility of
real greatness.
This is the strong heart of America. And this will be the spirit of my
administration.
I believe this kind of foreign policy will inspire our people and restore
the bipartisanship so necessary to our peace and security.
Many years ago, Alexander Solzhenitzyn challenged American politicians.
"Perhaps," he said, "some of you still feel yourselves just as
representatives of your state or party. We do not perceive these
differences. We do not look on you as Democrats or Republicans, not as
representatives of the East or West Coast or the Midwest.. Upon [you]
depends whether the course of world history will tend to tragedy or
salvation."
That is still our challenge. And that is still our choice.
Thank you.
See also :
A Period of Consequences, George W. Bush, September 23, 1999
http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/news99/92399_defense.htm
Gore on Homeland Defense and Counter Terrorism priorities :
Remarks as Prepared for Delivery by Vice President Al Gore (April 30, 2000)
http://web.archive.org/web/20000816160236/www.algore2000.com/speeches/sp_05232000_dc.html
Remarks by Vice President Al Gore at the AIPAC Annual Policy Conference (May
23, 2000)
http://web.archive.org/web/20000706210443/http://www.algore2000.com/speeches/sp_fp_boston_04302000.html
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