C6 Q10
In a short time the temples with colors
Of white and black of the two intermixed:
Red and yellow ones will carry off theirs from them,
Blood, land, plague, famine, fire extinguished by water.
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South Africa: Elections and Unity
January 02, 2004 1833 GMT
Summary
South Africa's upcoming national elections will be a test case for the
country's future unity. Though the country is in no danger of coming
apart in the near term, high unemployment and limited economic growth
are trouble spots that will emerge in the post-election period.
Analysis
In early April 2004, South Africans will go to the polls for the third
national all-race elections since the end of apartheid in 1994. The
elections are expected to be an easy win for the ruling African
National Congress, which remains the largest, best-funded and most
popular of the country's various political parties. The ANC will
maintain its control over Parliament, although it is not clear whether
it can achieve a two-thirds majority that would allow it to amend the
constitution unilaterally.
Despite a near-constant stream of political and public relations
debacles, President Thabo Mbeki -- the ANC party leader -- should be
re-elected. Last year, it was unclear whether Mbeki could survive his
political bumbles -- which included assertions that there was no
evidence that HIV and AIDS were related, his contrarian policy on
Zimbabwe's political and economic crises and his inability to grow the
country's stagnant economy, despite his own education as an economist.
Nevertheless, Mbeki has managed to maintain the full support of the
ANC and is the only viable presidential candidate: No one within the
party has stepped forward to challenge him, and no one without has a
prayer of winning the election. Mbeki has solidified his support
across party lines and within the international community. Neither the
ANC's continued ability to govern nor Mbeki's re-election will be in
question.
Instead, the key issue shaping the presidential campaign will be South
Africa's unity. South Africa has successfully transformed itself from
an apartheid state to a democracy, albeit a still-troubled one. But
whether this state can remain united is unclear. An ongoing power
struggle between the ANC and the smaller, rival Inkatha Freedom Party
is not a struggle for control over the government, but instead a fight
for the future of the country. Will it be a unified, integrated
republic, or will it be a federal system with semi-autonomous areas
and separate identities -- defined by ethnicity, tribe or race?
The issue will come to the fore in the ramp-up to next year's national
elections. The ANC bid for unity will prevail in the near term,
despite a surge in inter-tribal violence -- especially between rival
ethnic groups. In the long term, the nation's health will depend on
job creation, economic growth and the ruling party's success in
including opposition groups in the government and distributing
resources equitably among the various ethnic and tribal groups.
South Africa is often depicted as a scene of struggle between blacks
and whites. Although this was true during the apartheid era and
remains true to some extent today, it is not the only factor shaping
political struggle. The country is home to dozens of ethnic and tribal
groups and recognizes 11 official languages: Afrikaans, English,
Ndebele, Pedi, Sotho, Swazi, Tsonga, Tswana, Venda, Xhosa and Zulu.
These languages are spoken by different -- and frequently rival --
tribal groups. The Xhosa and the Zulu, for instance, were allies
against the white government in the early years of the anti-apartheid
struggle. But in the 1970s, the Zulu leadership cut a deal with
Pretoria, shifting its support to the government in exchange for
semi-autonomy.
After 1994, the ANC --a party dominated by Xhosas from Eastern Cape
Province -- took power with the Zulu-controlled Inkatha Freedom Party.
Part of the power-sharing agreement included a promise by the ANC that
the government would put the question of Zulu semi-autonomy in the
province of KwaZulu-Natal before international mediators. It has
refused so far to follow through with this promise, and Inkatha has
shifted to the opposition and is now campaigning to limit ANC
influence in the Zulu province.
The Zulus comprise South Africa's largest ethnic group, an estimated 8
million of the country's almost 43 million people. Since Inkatha
abandoned their alliance, the ANC has been moving slowly to court
Inkatha supporters. During the campaign, the party will focus on
making inroads into the rural parts of KwaZulu-Natal province --
building individual relationships with local tribal chieftains in a
bid to reduce support for Inkatha leader Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi.
In preparing for the 2004 elections, the ANC is moving to directly
challenge autonomy movements and the threat posed by the Zulu
opposition. The ruling party will launch its re-election bid in
Durban, the capital and port city of KwaZulu-Natal province. The ANC
campaign platform will be unity, and the party will focus on
explaining why supporting a central government is more economically
and politically beneficial to the people.
Buthelezi, in his 70s, will be forced to adopt a defensive posture.
The Zulus are divided, with the more urban, educated elite linking up
with the ANC and the more rural backing Inkatha. The distribution is
significant: According to unofficial estimates, around 40 percent of
South Africa's 27.4 million eligible voters live in rural areas.
The ANC has been projected to win by a landslide next year, while
Inkatha risks further erosion of its support base. In order to counter
this erosion, Inkatha has formed an opposition coalition with the
Democratic Alliance.
Formerly the Democratic Party, the DA also includes the New National
Party and presents the largest opposition grouping. In 1999, the
Democratic Party and Inkatha together pulled 72 seats in the 400-seat
National Assembly, for a total of 18.2 percent of the vote. The DA
involves a broad swathe of Afrikaaner and predominantly liberal
elites. The alliance with Inkatha is meant to prevent the ANC from
gaining the two-thirds majority in parliament.
An electoral victory for the opposition, though, could still be a
victory for the ANC -- and for South Africa -- in the longer-term,
since maintaining the country's unity requires that opposition groups
continue their involvement in government.
The post-election period will be the test that ultimately will
determine whether South Africa remains cohesive. After April, voters
will be looking to the ANC for some follow-through on campaign
promises. With unemployment hovering at around 40 percent and the
ANC's work program and infrastructure projects wrapping up, the
populace will be looking for new initiatives to ease the unemployment
crisis.
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| User: "Leigh_Bee" |
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| Title: Re: South Africa: Elections and Unity (C6 Q10) |
04 Jan 2004 06:59:21 AM |
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(Arnold Holbrook) wrote in message news:<7e4bfa4a.0401031614.95d6886@posting.google.com>...
C6 Q10
In a short time the temples with colors
Of white and black of the two intermixed:
Red and yellow ones will carry off theirs from them,
Blood, land, plague, famine, fire extinguished by water.
Leoni commentary has this:CVIQ 10. A very obscure quatrain, The colors may be associated with the characteristic garb of various monastic orders.
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South Africa: Elections and Unity
January 02, 2004 1833 GMT
Summary
South Africa's upcoming national elections will be a test case for the
country's future unity. Though the country is in no danger of coming
apart in the near term, high unemployment and limited economic growth
are trouble spots that will emerge in the post-election period.
Yes a rocky road coming for the SA, and it's surrounds, even Sisyphus
would find it a labour indeed.
LB
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| User: "Saint Isidore of Laytonville" |
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| Title: Re: South Africa: Elections and Unity (C6 Q10) |
03 Jan 2004 07:47:40 PM |
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My web site is in South Africa!
I predict they will find life on Mars!!!
The Psychedelick Pope
Saint Isidore of Laytonville
^Ö^ Patron Saint of the Internet ^Ö^
°°^Ö^ °°
http://apple2.org.za/gswv/me/
All I want to do is WOMP WOMP!!
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