Geopolitical Diary: Sunday, April 24, 2005
April 25, 2005 10 50 GMT
Chinese President Hu Jintao and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi met recently at a summit of Asian and African leaders. Except
for this meeting, the summit would have been of no consequence -- and
except for the crisis in Sino-Japanese relations, the meeting would
have been of no consequence. Which brings us, again and again, to the
question of why there is a crisis between Japan and China.
Publicly, this crisis began with an outcry over Japanese textbooks,
which the Chinese say downplay Japanese atrocities during World War II.
That is undoubtedly true, but it has been true for a long time. The
explanation raises the question of why there is a crisis now.
Certainly, in a China that is supposedly growing by leaps and bounds,
and in which economic relations with an awe-inspired world are the
foundation of all things, suddenly getting all bent out of shape by
what Japanese students know about World War II seems a bit
disproportionate.
The summit seems to have accomplished nothing. The usual public
commitments were given to improve relations, but soon after, the
Japanese foreign minister appeared on television, charging that the
Chinese also misrepresent history. In China, there were reports of
further demonstrations, denied by the government. One of the problems
the government in Beijing has is that -- with Japan such a sore subject
in China -- once a campaign against it has been cranked up, it is hard
to shut down.
Nevertheless, Hu and Koizumi did meet, and the question is what the
topic was. It is extraordinarily difficult to believe that the subject
was Japanese elementary education. Even if that is what was discussed,
it is the subtext -- the unspoken things -- that really matter. Put
differently, the Chinese started this crisis, so what exactly do they
want from Japan?
There are two possible answers. One would be that China anticipates a
showdown with Taiwan in the not-too-distant future. Japan has been
warming to Taiwan in recent months; China could be using the
demonstrations to warn Tokyo that growing closer to Taipei carries with
it the danger of a breakdown of relations between the two larger
countries. Under this theory, Beijing is trying to show Japan how
deeply unpopular it still is among the Chinese, and that a breakdown in
relations would be politically popular in China.
The other explanation is that the Chinese government doesn't care in
the least about Japanese pedagogy but is concerned about the enormous
internal problems -- particularly economic -- that it faces, and is
anticipating even greater internal tension than seen thus far. The
government knows that recent statistics hide the fact that China's
growth is profitless growth -- which can slow down the approach of a
banking crisis, but not avert it. Therefore, a political crisis with
Japan would give the Chinese a means of getting the public's mind off
of emerging problems, focusing on old enemies instead.
We can push this a bit further. An explanation for Chinese economic
problems -- which are daily discussed in the Chinese press --
eventually will have to be provided. If Beijing and the Chinese
Communist Party aren't going to take the hit, the other alternative is
foreign financial interests. Just as the Russians tend now to explain
their economic problems by pointing to foreign interests that exploited
Russia, so too the Chinese could point to foreigners for taking
advantage of China. Viewed from this angle, the Sino-Japanese dust-up
all makes a great deal of sense: It is a trial run for a politically
sustainable explanation for what has gone wrong. Japan is an excellent
first target, as it can't really strike back. If this works internally,
there will be other targets.
The two theories can be melded together very nicely. The Taiwan issue
heats up as the Chinese economy runs into greater trouble. Like Japan,
it is a mechanism for deflecting criticism of Beijing's economic
management by refocusing on politico-military threats instead.
Political attacks against Japan over its Taiwan policy are of a single
fabric with attacks against Japan to divert attention from economic
issues. It is all about economics.
If this theory is correct, it follows that there will be further
confrontation with other foreign powers -- over a range of odd and
apparently unrelated issues -- that are heavily invested in China.
Japan is the easy one and a proof of concept. Then it gets interesting,
particularly when the Chinese start to demonize the Americans along
with the Japanese. With the current debate over economic sanctions
against China for its currency and export policies, the next round is
ready to be cranked up.
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