atriana a écrit :
Uhm...if I might add my cynical 2-cents worth. Many of you may recall
that China made some VERY BIG noises when we decided to invade Iraq. (If
you don't, let me know I'll go find the stories...) They basically
announced a huge increase in defense back then as well because they said
they'd suddenly realized that the US had imperialist aims and that a
pre-emptive strike set an alarmingly aggressive precedent. (Nah...)
Since we "won" in Iraq they're are now making noises about Taiwan.
I might be totally wacko -- BUT, let's just say they make so much noise
the US makes good on their threat to supply Taiwan with WMD's...
First China has always been vocal about Taiwan. They threatened nuclear
attack if Taiwan held elections and changed system. But that wasn't
Zemin, but the military. And they did. And there was no attack. So the
country has shown is readiness to risk their existence for their
freedom. They are politically free, but the matter is more complicated
than that. There was hegemony of China over Taiwan that was not resolved
with that emancipation. The situation is quite complicated. nd Zemin
seems to be going in the background now with the new leadership. But
whatever the situation, only talk can move towards some resolution,
certainly not threats.
Second, the US didn't propose to give Taiwan nukes, only to back them up
militarily, with nukes if necessary I guess, if they are attacked with
what is threatened by China. And to work on a defense shield. It is not
the same at all.
Now, by the US's VERY OWN LOGIC China has the perfect excuse to invade
Taiwan. And no one can gainsay them. (Hell, at this point all they
really need is to find another country that "has learned" that Taiwan
MAY HAVE attempted to procure wmd-material from some
country-we-won't-name-but-it-starts-with-an-A.)
Australia?
I mean since Taiwan
isn't an official country and they have guns or rocks or sticks then
they MUST BE TERRORISTS!
I see you are not serious, nonetheless I will play along.
Taiwan is a democratically emancipated country. In 2000, Taiwan
underwent its first peaceful transfer of power from the Nationalist to
the Democratic Progressive Party. Throughout this period, the island has
prospered to become one of East Asia's economic "Tigers."
If I recall there was even a referendum. But this is not resolved. Makes
me think of the problem there will be if there is a referendum here in
Quebec.
There has to be rules that go beyond simple electoral wind, to change
the status of a nation. Maybe 2/3 rd instead of 50%+1. Something like
that to legitimize secession into a country.
But setting this up would trigger referendum in basque country, in
Ireland, in Cashmere (which in this case wouldn't be such a bad idea
perhaps), or in Chechenya for instance... etc. But a referendum doesn't
settle the problem, since they can go at it until it changes and then
prevent anything from happening once they seize power. Of course in the
best of cases everything would be OK. But establishing ground rules
could lead to quite a qagmire given the fact that renegade forces are
often totalitarian.
Every case has to be considered individually. And Taiwan is a lot more
individualized than any other as a country unlike any other entity
mentioned above.
It is already factually a distinct country and has been for decades a
multiparty democratic regime headed by popularly elected president and
unicameral legislature. Their administrative divisions are established
(the central administrative divisions include the provinces of Fu-chien
(some 20 offshore islands of Fujian Province including Quemoy and Matsu)
and Taiwan (the island of Taiwan and the Pescadores islands); Taiwan is
further subdivided into 16 counties (hsien, singular and plural), 5
municipalities* (shih, singular and plural), and 2 special
municipalities** (chuan-shih, singular and plural); Chang-hua, Chia-i,
Chia-i*, Chi-lung*, Hsin-chu, Hsin-chu*, Hua-lien, I-lan, Kao-hsiung,
Kao-hsiung**, Miao-li, Nan-t'ou, P'eng-hu, P'ing-tung, T'ai-chung,
T'ai-chung*, T'ai-nan, T'ai-nan*, T'ai-pei, T'ai-pei**, T'ai-tung,
T'ao-yuan, and Yun-lin; the provincial capital is at
Chung-hsing-hsin-ts'un). Taiwan uses the Wade-Giles system for
romanization
OK, I hope they leave Taiwan alone but wouldn't it be WEIRD if Russia's
Putin became a Blair-man and then together with China they'd force the
U.N. to pass a resolution to get inspectors into Taiwan and then maybe
they'd hurry along/terrorize some new little short pudgy
There is no WMD in Taiwan, I don't know where you get the idea. no one
says there are as far as I know.
inspector-guy...meanwhile 500,000 Chinese troops would surround Taiwan
and "pre-bomb" (eer, I mean "soften") them for months while the
inspectors have at it...and while the UN debates it...and
and...meanwhile Spain and all those little countries we can't pronounce
might make ANOTHER killing by collecting money from China for being part
of HER "coalition."
I see... Spain is S-P-A-I-N. And yes, there were countries that knew how
to read the UN resolution 1441. Unfortunately, not those we would
expect. And no, there are no other SC resolution that has to be
reinforced that authorizes force against any other country like 678 did
against Iraq. It was a unique precedent and Saddam didn't care. But stop
dreaming that this was done for fun. Try to understand why reality is
the way it is, hint you won't find it on all the propaganda sites you
lurk on.
I mean wouldn't that be hilarious? In a very sick, twisted, and
roosters-coming-home-to-roost sort of way?? Not that I'm saying that
China might be doing that...nah, they'd never think of doing that...
-a
China really has the possibility to enact a new relationship not based
on hostility with its neighbor or revert back to old ways. But hostility
can never give any result that is desirable.
It can, and I suggest this for an option to the situation, enact an
accord that make Taiwan accept an option for the centuries to come to
voluntarily join mainland China with the engagement of periodic
referenda so as to give China the assurance that the island can always
change its mind, what the Chinese would see as "come to their senses",
something like that, in exchange for a pact of non-aggression.
Like that no one would lose face and the matter would be settled without
being settled. A real Chinese type of a compromise.
J.
Flyfish wrote:
Jean Guernon <jguernon@globetrotter.net> wrote in
news:3F2FBF1B.C98E51F0@globetrotter.net:
Flyfish a ‚crit :
Jean Guernon <jguernon@globetrotter.net> wrote in
news:3F2FB52F.E09177C9 @globetrotter.net:
Quite more complicated than I thought though. Wonder what would
happen if there is no willingness for Taiwan to reverse its
position, which is sure to happen if China keeps threatening. Could
the UN settle the problem and define Taiwan's status?
Seems difficult to the extreme, doesn't the PRC have veto power?
Flyfish
In the security council, yes.
J.
Sounds like game, set, match to me, the General assembly is fairly
powerless in comparison to the SC.
Flyfish
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| User: "alibaba" |
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| Title: Re: Suggestion to China Re: China gearing up |
06 Aug 2003 01:47:56 AM |
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Jean Guernon <jguernon@globetrotter.net> wrote in message
Taiwan is a democratically emancipated country. In 2000, Taiwan
underwent its first peaceful transfer of power from the Nationalist to
the Democratic Progressive Party. Throughout this period, the island has
prospered to become one of East Asia's economic "Tigers."
Taiwan was already tiger under KMT. after 2000 though, economy has
experienced massive efflux out to guess where--China. Chen Shuibian
is incompetent.
Chung-hsing-hsin-ts'un). Taiwan uses the Wade-Giles system for
romanization
no, they have legislated the use of Mainland's pinyin system (slightly
modified to fit also with Taiwan's local dialects and pronounciation
patterns) instead. wade-giles will be no more.
China really has the possibility to enact a new relationship not based
on hostility with its neighbor or revert back to old ways. But hostility
can never give any result that is desirable.
I agree. I think China has realized that. the 2000 election hostility
turned to be entirely counterproductive. Thus now China has opened
its arms to Taiwanese businessmen and students to live, study and do
business in China. It has also heavily promoted the 3-links between
taiwan and the mainland.
No, China will not invade Taiwan without provocation. It would be
foolish, the last thing China needs again is a huge PR fallout like
that after Tiananmen (which it is still recovering from). However, if
provoked, it appears that it will not hesitate to take advantage
either (due to nationalism at home and the overwhelming opposition
amongst average mainland Chinese against Taiwan independence).
.
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| User: "Jean Guernon" |
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| Title: Re: Suggestion to China Re: China gearing up |
06 Aug 2003 06:17:02 AM |
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|
alibaba a écrit :
Jean Guernon <jguernon@globetrotter.net> wrote in message
Taiwan is a democratically emancipated country. In 2000, Taiwan
underwent its first peaceful transfer of power from the Nationalist to
the Democratic Progressive Party. Throughout this period, the island has
prospered to become one of East Asia's economic "Tigers."
Taiwan was already tiger under KMT. after 2000 though, economy has
experienced massive efflux out to guess where--China. Chen Shuibian
is incompetent.
Chung-hsing-hsin-ts'un). Taiwan uses the Wade-Giles system for
romanization
no, they have legislated the use of Mainland's pinyin system (slightly
modified to fit also with Taiwan's local dialects and pronounciation
patterns) instead. wade-giles will be no more.
China really has the possibility to enact a new relationship not based
on hostility with its neighbor or revert back to old ways. But hostility
can never give any result that is desirable.
I agree. I think China has realized that. the 2000 election hostility
turned to be entirely counterproductive. Thus now China has opened
its arms to Taiwanese businessmen and students to live, study and do
business in China. It has also heavily promoted the 3-links between
taiwan and the mainland.
No, China will not invade Taiwan without provocation. It would be
foolish, the last thing China needs again is a huge PR fallout like
that after Tiananmen (which it is still recovering from). However, if
provoked, it appears that it will not hesitate to take advantage
either (due to nationalism at home and the overwhelming opposition
amongst average mainland Chinese against Taiwan independence).
I agree that they have nothing to gain, that is the point. But then,
what is provoking their actual stand-off? The normal reaction (under the
Taiwan Act) to the threats they make?
It is not Taiwan, by itself, as a threat to china; Taiwan would want to
attack China. This is all China made; true, because Taiwan exercise a
different political system, an independent democracy of course. But that
is no threat in the military sense of the word. Keeping the threats up
will only alienate and increase the cleavage from Taiwan of mainland
China. Hong Kong is considered as a test tube for Taiwan and from the
article posted it seems that it is not held in high regard in that
nation.
Hong Kong is still prosperous under Beijing and has retained much of its
freedom. I have some idea since my brother was the Canadian consul for
immigration there (he has been promoted the last couple of weeks, not
sure what he is exactly, but he'll be here this week, I'll ask him)...
The system is still the most advanced of all China by its particular
status, although the infrastructure is not improving anymore at the pace
it would in modern society given how many flee from it before the
annexation taking along capital... but the dynamic of Hong Kong is still
vibrant. True, it is all relative, but the only way forward is if
Beijing promote the feeling of belonging within special status until
they themselves achieve global prosperity rather than promote
assimilation towards uniformization which, at the moment, would be
detrimental to the colonies. As China will improve if it keeps on the
right track, the contrast will likely slowly disappear... There has to
be a diplomatic approach that guarantees some insurance to China that
when that time will come when taiwanese will see it in their interest to
rejoin the mainland economy, they will be able to do so, and the sooner
it can, which is why I propose a mechanism by which an agreed upon
periodical nation wide referendum in Taiwan would insure that when the
fear of the system because of the actual threats have subsided if they
start now to have a politic of true reconciliation devoid of
intimidation, it will take a while as the Chinese economy would thus
improve, the time will come when the reunification will become a
reality. If they take the opposite road, albeit all their might, they
lose the perspective. It takes patience, and that kind of legislation
and approach, but Chinese have a lot of patience.
I don't see any other realistic way out of the stalemate. Do you?
J.
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| User: "Leigh_Bee" |
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| Title: Re: Suggestion to China Re: China gearing up |
08 Aug 2003 06:04:16 PM |
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Jean Guernon <jguernon@globetrotter.net> wrote in message news:<3F300C99.B86FD2E8@globetrotter.net>...
atriana a écrit :
Uhm...if I might add my cynical 2-cents worth. Many of you may recall
that China made some VERY BIG noises when we decided to invade Iraq. (If
you don't, let me know I'll go find the stories...) They basically
announced a huge increase in defense back then as well because they said
they'd suddenly realized that the US had imperialist aims and that a
pre-emptive strike set an alarmingly aggressive precedent. (Nah...)
Since we "won" in Iraq they're are now making noises about Taiwan.
Well just by looking at the paths taken by history when the time is
right China will resume Taiwan and within the decade.
LB
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