Taiwan: Chen's Stopover in Fiji -- His Start at Fighting Back
May 04, 2005 18 28 GMT
Summary
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian made an unannounced visit May 4 to
the island of Fiji -- a country that maintains relations with China and
does not recognize Taiwan. Although advance rumors of the visit raised
speculation that the island would cut ties with Beijing in favor of
Taiwan, Chen's real aim is to provoke China -- and thus discredit
Taiwanese opposition parties that are forging friendly relations with
China.
Analysis
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, wrapping up a tour of the Marshall
Islands, Kiribati and Tuvalu, made an unannounced visit to the island
of Fiji on May 4. Rumors of an impending visit had circulated for days,
prompting speculation among Taiwanese media that a breakthrough had
been reached -- that Fiji might end diplomatic relations with China and
recognize Taiwan. The Taiwanese Foreign Ministry denied the reports,
saying the stopover was intended only to make the president's travel
more comfortable and that no talks regarding diplomatic recognition
would take place.
Chen's visit, however, likely will raise Chinese ire -- which the
president will use in an attempt to divert newfound attention to the
Taiwanese opposition.
The Fiji stopover came a day ahead of the second visit by a Taiwanese
pro-reunification opposition leader to the mainland in two weeks. James
Soong, leader of the opposition People First Party, leaves May 5 for a
nine-day trip to China at the invitation of the Chinese Communist
Party. Soong -- one of the only hopes Chen has of opening the lines of
communication between Beijing and Taiwan -- plans to meet Chinese
President Hu Jintao to discuss relations between the two neighbors.
Soong's visit will begin just two days after Lien Chen, leader of the
Kuomintang (KMT), or Nationalist Party, wrapped up his own trip to
China after putting a symbolic end to the 1949 civil war. During the
trip, Lien received certain concessions from China, including the
elimination of certain tariffs on specific Taiwanese fruits and the
lifting of the ban on Chinese tourists traveling to Taiwan. He also was
presented with a pair of pandas for Taiwan.
The latest developments between the Taiwanese opposition and the
Chinese government -- though not a coordinated plan of action -- do
benefit both sides. Beijing gets to use the visits as part of its new
strategy to exploit the democratic nature of the Taiwanese political
system to subtly intensify political rifts on the island. The Taiwanese
opposition, meanwhile, has succeeded in putting significant pressure on
Chen, as these newfound friendly ties and goodwill gestures with China
have backed the pro-independence ruling coalition into a corner.
Chen's visit to Fiji is his first attempt to move out of that corner by
attempting to goad China into showing some fangs. A typical Chinese
response in this type of situation -- reminders that China remains
sovereign over Taiwan and refusal to renounce the use of force as a
last resort against the island -- would be all the ammunition Chen
needs to remind the Taiwanese of the menacing force the opposition now
calls friends. The Chinese might not fall fully for this ploy, although
they must make some response, as they can ill afford to ignore such
provocation. The incident, however, will not be the last. Chen cannot
brazenly goad the Chinese, but he can quietly push China's patience to
the limit with increased talk of independence -- and perhaps friendly
conversations with Japan. If Chen is to remain in power and retain
control over relations with China, he has few other options.
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