http://newstodaynet.com/27DEC/SS6.HTM
Some knew it was coming
E SARAVANAN
Chennai, Dec 27:
N Venkatanath, research scholar, and N Rajeshwara Rao, research supervisor,
Department of Applied Geology, University of Madras.
Photo: A Prathap
The memories and the trauma caused by the tidal wave that washed out
parts of coastal Chennai and other parts of the State yesterday will haunt the
minds of the people for a long time to come.
It is a tough task to forget the damage left behind by the wave that
was triggered by an earthquake in far off Indonesia. The Richter scale recorded
the quake to be in the magnitude of 9.0.
What is so mysterious about the earthquake and the subsequent tidal
wave? Cannot it be predicted earlier and the people be warned of it? Could
necessary precautions be taken to minimise the loss to life and property? In
fact, the quake was actually predicted by a team of research scholars of the
Department of Applied Geology, University of Madras, with a permissible error,
a week ago.
N Venkatanathan, research scholar, who is currently undergoing a Ph.D
programme in Predicting Earthquake and Aseismic Construction Designing and the
man behind the team working on predictions, said he had already presented a
report about the Indonesian earthquake on 22 December to members of the
Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi.
The 15-member team headed by S K Tandan were in Chennai at that time
for a meeting.
Venkatanathan, said, 'we predicted that the disaster will occur on 26
December 2004 at 00:30 (GMT) with 3.54 N latitude and 97.17E longitude, which
is located near the coast of Banyak Island, Sumatra, Indonesia, with a
magnitude at around 6 to 7. The actual calamity occurred on 26 December 2004 at
00:58 (GMT), with 3.298 N latitude and 95.779 E longitude, located off the west
coast of northern Sumatra'.
The difference in distance between the predicted place and the
epicentre was 157.11899 km with a time difference of 28 minutes. He also said
the team had predicted that the after-shocks would occur at 700 km to the South
of the epicentre between 5 pm and 6 pm. This was recorded with permissible
error. It occurred at 157 km from the epicentre. That is with the error of 521
km.
Venkatanathan and his guide N Rajeshwara Rao, research supervisor as he
calls him, admit that 'we didn't expect the extent of damage it will cause to
the Tamilnadu coast, since we expected the magnitude might be around 7.0, which
cannot damage Tamilnadu. We never expected the consequent tidal waves that
would have such a devasting effect on the coastal areas of Tamilnadu, admitted
Rajeshwara Rao.
Venkatanathan explained that the prediction was based on a novel method
developed by the team. According to the method, when two or more planets, Sun
and the Moon get aligned more or less in line (0 to 180 degree) with the earth
it could affect the angular momentum of the earth and decrease the speed of
rotation of the earth which could trigger an earthquake.
But in order to trigger an earthquake in one particular place, two
conditions should be taken into consideration, said Venkatanathan. One is the
distance of the planetary configurations and two the directions of force acting
at the possible epicenter.
Venkatanathan also clarified that by analysing the earthquakes that had
occurred over the last 100 years, it was inferred that there was a role of
planetary configurations in triggering earthquakes.
He added that the team had earlier predicted possibility of earthquake
occurrences at 27 places, among which Assam was one, and presented a report at
the International Conference of 'Hazards 2004' held at National Geophysical
Research Institute, Hyderabad.
He said the success of the prediction rate achieved so far was around
75 to 80 per cent within a time-frame of plus or minus three to four days.
Rajeshwara Rao said, 'we are in the process of refining the technique
so as to achieve a better success rate for which we should have a network of
inputs from various international research organisations. For this to happen
there was a need for large-scale funding, which could be done through the
Government. He said with these things in mind, the department had already
submitted a proposal to the Tamilnadu government to establish a Centre for
Earthquake and Natural Hazards Studies (CENHAS).
The department had also submitted proposals for collaborative
programmes with Bulgaria and Uzbekistan through the Department of Science and
Technology (DST), New Delhi.
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| User: "" |
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| Title: Re: Team predicted massive Quake |
30 Dec 2004 05:40:27 AM |
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Predict and what ?? keep it to yourself ? or make it public ? If a
message has to be reached out to the public, it's easy today and not
too expensive either. So what's the team doing right now ?
"Calculating" and "Predicting" when the next quake will occus so that
they can say after it has taken many lives.. "Yeaaaa We predicted this
one too". Rubbish !!!
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