| Topic: |
Science > Prophecies-Of-Nostradamus |
| User: |
"=?utf-8?B?4pi6IC7CtzoqwqjCqCo6wrcuwrc6KsKowqgqOsK3LiAg4pmlIFdvcmxkIFdhciBJSUkgMjAwNywgVGhlIExhc3QgMjAwMCBEYXlzLi4uSE9PUk9PICEgIC7CtzoqwqjCqCo6wrcuIOKZpeKYusKpwq7ihKI=?=" |
| Date: |
27 Feb 2007 01:28:42 AM |
| Object: |
The Consequences of Attacking Iran |
http://www.antiwar.com/utley/?articleid=3D10477
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The Consequences of Attacking Iran
The murdered Israeli leader Gen. Yitzhak Rabin opposed the First Gulf
War in 1990, warning that one never knows when starting a war where it
will lead. As Bush and the neocons are reportedly planning to attack
Iran, we should all think of the likely consequences.
Most Americans already believe that George Bush is not much influenced
by facts, but rather by his ideology. Already he is reportedly
thinking of his legacy and dreaming that history will prove him
"right." More disturbing are his religious beliefs, in particular his
daily readings of Scottish preacher Oswald Chambers, who argues that
if plans and events go wrong, it just means that God is testing
believers' faith, not that strategies should be changed. This may also
explain Bush's aversion to diplomacy. After all, God does not
"negotiate" with evil. Various reports state that Iran is years away
from the ability to produce a single nuke. In a few years' time the
government in Iran could easily change or modify its positions;
indeed, already President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is losing power. But
time is running out for Bush (although not for America).
An article about Iran in The American Conservative by former CIA
officer Phil Giraldi says that Bush may attack before Tony Blair
retires in April. Blair has already just sent two British minesweepers
to the Gulf. U.S. war plans are reportedly counting on a few weeks of
war (as they did with Iraq) to disable Iran's nuclear and military
industries. The concept that the U.S. could simply destroy much of
Iran then proclaim the war over neglects all the lessons of Iraq,
namely that a wounded Muslim nation only gives up when it wants to.
Repeatedly, the U.S. loses when we expect enemies to play by American
rules.
Following are consequences we must anticipate following such an
American attack:
1=2E Iran wouldblockade the Straits of Hormuz. Iran has new, "state of
the art" Russian anti-aircraft defenses as well as powerful Sunburn
anti-ship missiles purchased from the Ukraine, Chinese mines, and also
itself manufactures other missiles. Anti-ship mines may already be in
place, able to be activated from shore.
U=2ES. strategy calls for destroying all the anti-ship missile
emplacements and small missile and mine-laying boats long deployed
along Iran's coastline. Obviously, a surprise U.S. attack may miss
some Iranian weaponry, or U.S. Navy anti-missile systems may not work
to defend all ships in the Gulf. Probably Iran would try to sink
tankers (see a projected scenario) to set off a worldwide panic for
oil rather than just aim at U.S. Navy ships. Even the threat of this
would cause insurance rates to skyrocket and possibly shut down the
straits. Just the risk of all this happening should be cause of great
concern for America and the whole world.
2=2E War quickly gets out of hand. U.S. plans to destroy Iran's anti-
aircraft and military infrastructure could easily escalate to
destroying Iran's oil-loading and shipment facilities. This would take
even more millions of barrels off the market for a prolonged period.
If Bush/Cheney hadn't shown themselves to be so incompetent, one might
imagine it was a plan of their Texas oil friends to raise oil prices
to the stratosphere. Jim Cramer warned on MSNBC's Scarborough Country
on Jan. 30 that war would quickly drive U.S. gas prices to $5 per
gallon.
The far greater risk is that Iran would then retaliate against the
hopelessly exposed Kuwaiti, Saudi, and Gulf states oil facilities.
Iran has already warned Qatar, where the U.S. has CENTCOM, that its
vast gas compression facilities would be targeted if it allows a U.S.
attack. Washington announced that it was sending Patriot missiles to
defend our "allies," but there is no assurance that these would all
work. After all, only one Iranian missile (or ground attack from
sympathetic Shias) would need to get through. Also, the Bush
administration has made secret the publication of test results for the
U=2ES. anti-missile program. This could easily cover up corruption and
incompetence. We already now are finding out that some of our largest
defense contractors have designed ships for the Coast Guard that
aren't even seaworthy.
3=2E The whole world's prosperity would be at risk if oil didn't flow
again quickly. Any such severe shock to the world economy would cause
foreigners to cut back on financing U.S. deficits, with a consequent
sharp rise in U.S. interest rates. This would cause very severe
repercussions to the whole U.S. economy and government spending. Any
real constriction of the Chinese economy would cause a collapse in
worldwide commodity prices, with consequent effects on Third World
buying power.
4=2E American citizens and businesses in many nations would be under
threat of attack by militant Iranians and other Muslims. War would
multiply our terrorist enemies tremendously. Administration officials
keep arguing that by fighting in the Middle East we are avoiding
terrorist attacks in America. This is the usual American "body count"
way of fighting wars. The reasoning assumes that the number of
terrorists is somehow finite. But if we keep creating more enemies, we
then increase the risk of reprisals inside the U.S.
5=2E The attack would make America even more suspect and hated in the
whole Islamic world. Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former U.S. national
security adviser, told Congress the war in Iraq was a calamity and was
likely to lead to "a head-on conflict with Iran and with much of the
world of Islam at large."
6=2E War would greatly increase Russian power vis-=C3=A0-vis Europe as the
latter would become even more dependent upon Russian energy supplies.
Already a majority of Europeans think that Washington is the greatest
threat to world peace. War would severely strain the American
alliance.
In Latin America, new, higher oil prices would further strengthen
President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, giving him more money to subsidize
further damage against American interests all over the continent.
7=2E We don't know the effectiveness of the Russian and Chinese weapons
that have been sold to Iran. There is a risk that they might be very
effective.
8=2E We might even lose an aircraft carrier. Bush's plan may be to
provoke Iran to attack first by putting ships in harm's way in the
narrow Gulf. He may be thinking that after such an attack he would
have all Americans behind him in retaliating against Iran. It is hard
to know what is in his (and Cheney's) mind, but we do know that they
are ignorant and full of wishful thinking.
9=2E American forces in Iraq would be very vulnerable to modern war
supplies from Iran, for example, effective anti-tank weaponry such as
that used by Hezbollah to destroy dozens of Israeli tanks. The long
U=2ES. supply convoys from Kuwait would be subject to much greater
attacks. A sustained Iranian missile attack on the Green Zone in
Baghdad or the Doha base camp in Kuwait could kill many Americans.
10. War would curtail the great influence of the religious Right in
Washington. Christian fundamentalists are the backbone of support for
continuing wars and chaos in the Middle East (see Armageddon Lobby).
Their power would finally backfire as more Americans become wary of
leaders who claim a direct line to God. The fundamentalists' passion
for war, callousness towards the death of foreigners, fear and (almost
total) ignorance of the outside world, and unstinting support for
police state measures out of Washington have already discredited them
among many Americans. Their fomenting another war would be a final
blow.
11. The disasters for America could also weaken and challenge the
power of the Israel Lobby, especially AIPAC. At least that is the
concern of writers at the major xxxish newspaper The Forward. The
writers note concern for the perceptions that Israeli interests
fomented the attack on Iraq. The antiwar and anti-empire movement is
also heavily xxxish, but without "the New York money people" pushing
America into war with Iran, as warned by Gen. Wesley Clark.
12. Finally, another war might be the final nail in the Republican
coffin for a generation. The party would fracture. Republicans may be
the "Daddy Party," which once was thought to provide masculinity to
foreign policy, but as James Pinkerton says, "If dad keeps wrecking
the car, then there may be reason to change."
http://www.antiwar.com/utley/?articleid=3D10477
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| User: "=?utf-8?B?4pi6IC7CtzoqwqjCqCo6wrcuwrc6KsKowqgqOsK3LiAg4pmlIFdvcmxkIFdhciBJSUkgMjAwNywgVGhlIExhc3QgMjAwMCBEYXlzLi4uSE9PUk9PICEgIC7CtzoqwqjCqCo6wrcuIOKZpeKYusKpwq7ihKI=?=" |
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| Title: Re: The Consequences of Attacking Iran |
27 Feb 2007 01:38:01 AM |
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